B$ The Bell, Tuezelday April 27
225 replies to this topic
Posted 27 April 2004 - 07:25 AM
Welcome to B4 the Bell!
OPEC Basket Price Rises 29C To $32.87/Bbl Mon Vs Fri
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
April 27, 2004 4:21 a.m.
LONDON -- The OPEC reference basket of seven crude oils averaged $32.87 a barrel Monday, up 29 cents from Friday, the group's official news agency, Opecna, said Tuesday.
OPEC has a mechanism intended to keep its basket price within a $22-$28 a barrel range by raising output by 500,000 barrels a day if the basket price holds above $28/bbl for 20 consecutive trading days, or lowering output by 500,000 b/d if the basket price stays below $22/bbl for 10 consecutive trading days.
But OPEC 's price has been above the target band since Dec. 5 and the group has chosen to ignore the mechanism for the time being, citing the depreciation of the U.S. dollar and what it thinks are unusual world oil market conditions, driven by speculators and not fundamentals.
OPEC Pres: Grp To Study Possible Change In Price Band
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
April 27, 2004 12:14 a.m.
JAKARTA -- The Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries will study whether it should change its current price-band target to factor in the U.S. dollar's depreciation and inflation, OPEC 's president Purnomo Yusgiantoro said Tuesday.
"We will study a new range," he told reporters.
When asked if OPEC will decide to adopt a $25-$32 a barrel range, which was suggested by some local anal cysts and members of the parliament's commission overseeing Indonesia's state budget, Purnomo only said "it's possible, but not definite."
Stocks to remain tight as China absorbs available crude imports
Lloyds List; Apr 27, 2004
NORTH America will continue to be a huge importer of crude oil and products throughout the summer as stocks remain tight and demand continues to increase.
Backing the Poten analysis, the Centre of Global Energy Studies in London believes the US will see record volumes of crude oil and products imported this summer as the driving season gets under way and commercial stocks are standing at very low levels.
'With inventories low, US refiners must run flat out to make gasoline, requiring record levels of crude oil imports over the coming summer,' said CGES anal cysts in their latest report.
'Even so, the world's biggest oil consumer will need to import record volumes of gasoline and blending components from refiners in Europe and elsewhere.'
It seems some of the stocks problems for US refiners comes from strong demand ahead of the summer, but the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has also played a role in keeping stocks tight.
'For the past two years, Opec has boosted oil prices by preventing refiners from building up their oil inventories,' said the CGES.
The problem of tight supply is being exasperated by booming demand in the US. The CGES expects US gasoline demand to average more than 9.4m barrels per day this year, 2% higher than in 2003.
North America is not the only market in a boom period. China is also gathering up all available imports of crude oil and products for its economic expansion.
'China's booming oil demand is helping to keep buying strong. China's oil demand in January and February was up 19% on year-earlier levels,' said the CGES.
Posted 27 April 2004 - 07:26 AM
If I had a nickel for every poondit's or analcyst's opinion on which way any of the miriad of gaming markets was headed, I'd have enough to start my own newsleter business and get rich. Don't dig for the gold, let the gold come to you by selling the picks and shovels.
It seems as most of these eggspurts will be right at least once for some undefined period of time, garnering their 15 minutes of fame. A broken clock is right twice a day, even if you reset it once a week.
Some of these "pros" (see "street walker") can be most convincing on the surface of their arguments, and yet most end up looking like Swiss cheese with careful scrutiny.
This morning I read a little piece from Cliff Droke, A Century of Prices and the U.S. Economy.
"A Century of Prices" also shows us that the middle part of a decade where a major war is fought is bullish without exception. We also know that the "fifth" year of every decade is always bullish, too. So might we expect a continuation of the stock/commodities bull market in 2005? Those market forecasters calling for a market crash and economic recession in 2005 had better re-think their positions based on the assumption that history repeats.
"A Century of Prices" shows us that we can definitely take a page right out of the past and learn from generations gone by. History really does repeat, and this basic lesson comes alive in the pages of this book.
Does history always repeat? Are there any hard fast rules without exceptions considering the , ahem, "novel" nature of the current circumstances which really haven't seen the light of day since John Law ran amuck in France?
While I believe China has been preparing it's economy and stockpiles for conventional war, the "war" the US and it's plethora of "staunch" allies are engaged in is anything but conventional. Yes we are losing the occasional Humvee or chopper, but we aren't losing a battleship a month or any significant quantity of aircraft or material. And for the US that's a really good thing, because frankly with the destruction of the industrial base that has occurred in the US over the last 30 years we couldn't begin to fight a major scale conventional war. I can just envision us going up against China and having to stop midstream and say we need a truce because we neeed to buy stuff from China to replenish our military. If you think we only get our military berets from China, you better start checking the labels of origin on the US military's equipment.
So I think Droke may be all wet. Of course he could be proven to be brilliant. Only time can tell us that for sure.
Little snippets of seemingly insignificant information are starting to paint a picture of the beginning of the breakdown. Wal-Mart, the unquestioned king of global retail, says April is coming in at the low end of their expected range. Sandbagging or truth? I think truth. Nickel is at 6 month lows and other base metals are dragging butt. China's tank may be topped off and if the US consumer wavers just a tiny bit, I think the speculative froth on most commodiites is going to rapidly vanish. New home sales were just absolutely fabulous - in March. But it's the end of April now and mortgage rates have started rising over the last month. IRs on RV loans have moved up .5% (roughly a 15% increase) in the last 30 days. Lagging data will start revealing the rot going forward. I think the best is behind us.
While a move up in US long term rates is problematic up to a certain point, it isn't the death knell if it stays relatively subdued and within the range experienced over the last 12 months. However if long term rates break out, it is going to pressure rates around the globe. Japan could have serious indigestion if markets force their rates up. Fitting if Japan puked on Bush this time.
While I have no insight into short term markets, that's up to the pros around here, I am seeing what I expect to see at this time to confirm my longer term view. Let's just say I am going to be very careful with my inventory levels in the second half of the year.
Posted 27 April 2004 - 07:32 AM
Did Team Bush think through the economics of a long and costly war? There is no evidence it did. It counted on the war being quick, cheap and self-financing. If it thought about the long-range economics, there seems to have been only one goal: control of oil.
Spain's Philip II believed that control of the gold of Peru and silver of Mexico would guarantee his nation's predominance in Europe. Elizabeth I and Sir Francis Drake disagreed. Louis XIV and Napoleon I trusted in conquest to enrich France. Their ministers — Turgot and Talleyrand — knew better. Winston Churchill vowed not to preside over the end of the British Empire. But his successors gave it up when they couldn't afford it anymore. Luckily, the U.S. was there to take over, and we had the support of the free world. But that was then.
By going into Iraq with few allies, we've assumed the entire economic cost. The home-front damage is small now, but it will build over time. And it will take time and effort to repair. The future American economy will especially need a new energy direction, emphasizing conservation and renewable energy, and concerted investment in the world's next generation of technologies — both to reduce our oil dependence and to help balance our trade deficits.
Posted 27 April 2004 - 07:38 AM
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Posted 27 April 2004 - 07:38 AM
We manage Doc. I doubt if Hiding Bear could see my smoke signal from there anyway.
Posted 27 April 2004 - 07:44 AM
Sorry about that Chiefs!
We'll just place a placeholder from now on to start.
Posted 27 April 2004 - 08:26 AM
Why no 0300 jam last night????????
What are they up to?
Currencies. overseas markets, gold, silver, the bond, the futures,
and these boards are deathly quiet.
Calm before the storm?
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson
Posted 27 April 2004 - 08:44 AM
the s.o.b.'s had the jam @ 3:45 pm yestiddy
ran the s-p 4pts or more
over 200 new 52 wk lows and this type of channel stuffing
Posted 27 April 2004 - 08:46 AM
Good morning everybody!
Where was the 3:00 a.m. jam job? I was so expecting to wake up and see at least the remains of one. While I still have a bad feeling, it would be hilarious if this was it, they spent all they had with all the manipulation and bullhorning of the past week, all they got was a breakthrough that held two minutes, and it just goes down from here. That would be quite funny.
While the 3:00 a.m. jam is not quite a 100% certainty, the incessant job layoffs seem to have become so.
Just took a long signal on EUR/USD. While action is dangerously choppy (high whipsaw risk), it was a higher low, and my direction is consistent with the IT directional change per the latest Anals. Fill at 1.1889.
Posted 27 April 2004 - 08:50 AM
I drive by that complex when I go into Tempe.
It is one LARGE complex, right off I-75.
This must be good enought for 5 million $ bonus for the CEO of C.
At least the worker s in India wil buy GOLD with the money they will now earn.
Posted 27 April 2004 - 08:52 AM
Gasoline...423,000,000 Gallons/day...Equal to the flow of the Vernal Falls, Yosemite National Park, California
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...
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