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B4 The Bell, Tuezelday April 20


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 07:27 AM

:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

These are interesting times:

Over the past two years, interest rates have been very low. Last June the 10-year bond rate hit a 48-year low. Even three weeks ago the rate was still below 4 percent, a level last seen in 1963.

If the economy fully recovers or even if investors just think it will interest rates will rise sharply. In its World Economic Outlook report, to be issued tomorrow, the International Monetary Fund urges the Federal Reserve to prepare the economy for higher rates to "avoid financial market disruption both domestically and abroad."

But how far will rates rise? Let's not get into Greenspan Kremlinology, parsing the chairman's mumbles for clues about the Fed's next move. Let's ask, instead, how much rates will rise if and when normal conditions of supply and demand resume in the bond market.


Questions of Interest
http://www.nytimes.c...ion/20KRUG.html

All the President's wars, the latest from Bob Woodward:

On April 10, 2003, Ken Adelman, a Reagan administration official and supporter of the Iraq war, published an op-ed article in The Washington Post headlined, " 'Cakewalk' Revisited," more or less gloating over what appeared to be the quick victory there, and reminding readers that 14 months earlier he had written that war would be a "cakewalk." He chastised those who had predicted disaster. "Taking first prize among the many frightful forecasters" was Brent Scowcroft, who served as national security adviser in the first Bush administration. Adelman wrote that his own confidence came from having worked for Donald H. Rumsfeld three times and "from knowing Dick Cheney and Paul Wolfowitz for so many years."

Cheney Was Unwavering in Desire to Go to War
http://www.washingto...-2004Apr19.html

#2 DrStool

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 07:29 AM

Not So Dark

Not So Bright Either
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#3 HiHat

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 07:50 AM

I plan to SELL short....right after opening.

Looking for large sell off to materialize.

#4

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 07:53 AM

I see the futures jam, which of course started at 3:00 a.m., is now getting its second wind. They still may get the spoos over 1140 before the market opens.

In addition, they also managed to jam the Bonar, whose correction rally was starting to waver, and slap the metals in Asia. The cretins must be proud of themselves for a good night's work.

#5 Bearman

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 08:02 AM

The Worst President in History!

Worst president in history?

There were 39 combat related killings in Iraq during the month of January..... in the fair city of Detroit (Michigan) there were 35 murders in the month of January. That's one American city folks, about as deadly as the entire war torn country of Iraq! Worst president in history? The following appeared in the Durham, NC local paper as a letter to the editor. Liberals claim President Bush shouldn't have started this war. They complain about his prosecution of it. One liberal recently claimed Bush was the worst president in U.S. history. Let's clear up one point: We didn't start the war on terror. Try to remember, it was started by terrorists BEFORE 9/11. Let's look at the "worst" president and mismanagement claims. Lincoln allowed the US to fall into civil war. How would you like a nice Civil war today? You could go and kill your out of state relatives! FDR led us into World War II. Germany never attacked us: Japan did. From 1941-1945, 450,000 lives were lost, an average of 112,500 per year. Truman finished that war and started one in Korea, North Korea never attacked us. From 1950-1953,
55,000 lives were lost, an average of 18,333 per year. John F. Kennedy started the Vietnam conflict in 1962. Vietnam never attacked us. I think history might show Eisenhower committed the troops and Kennedy was honoring that commitment. Johnson turned Vietnam into a quagmire. From 1965-1975, 58,000 lives were lost, an average of
5,800 per year. Clinton went to war in Bosnia without UN or French consent, Bosnia never attacked us. He was offered Osama bin Laden's head on a platter three times by Sudan and did nothing. Osama has attacked us on multiple occasions. In the two years since terrorists attacked us, President Bush has liberated two countries, crushed the Taliban, crippled al-Qaida, put nuclear inspectors in Lybia, Iran and North Korea without firing a shot, and captured a terrorist who slaughtered 300,000 of his own people. We lost 600 soldiers, an average of 300 a year. Bush did all this abroad while not allowing another terrorist attack at home. Worst president in history? Come on! The Democrats are complaining about how long the war is taking, but... It took less time to take Iraq than it took Janet Reno to take the Branch Davidian compound. That was a
51 day operation. We've been looking for evidence of chemical weapons in Iraq for less time than it took Hillary Clinton to find the Rose Law Firm billing records. It took less time for the 3rd Infantry Division and the Marines to destroy the Medina Republican Guard than it took Teddy Kennedy to call the police after his Oldsmobile sank at Chappaquiddick. It took less time to take Iraq than it took to count the votes in Florida!!!! Our military is GREAT!

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 08:11 AM

Bearman,

Thanks, I enjoyed that!

:D

#7 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 08:11 AM

Two RV's sold in the last two days - customers sold stock to buy and one also closed a savings account. If these people are representative of the mood out there, they don't seem too happy with their equities accounts and damn sure aren't pleased with .5% interest on their savings. I have previously speculated that if the worm turns in the equities markets that the sheeple aren't going to hang around like they did in 2000. They will be quicker to pull the trigger with the memory of 2000-2003 fresh in their memories. Hold for the long term doesn't have the same appeal as it once did when the previous memories were of a never ending rising NEW FREAKIN ECONOMY. The wimpy economy has become the reality and the sheeple know it. McTeer will be out telling us to all hold hands and buy a gallon of gas for that behemoth SUV that they still have 3.5 years left to pay on.

You have to wonder what in the hell are banks going to do if nobody wants their paltry rates due to Greenscums insanely below reality rate. Perhaps reduce reserve ratios to a negative factor? Or will they be forced to reign in lending?

The health of the banking sector, IMO, is wildly over-stated.

Everyone please panic and sell your metals. I'd like to buy more, but would greatly appreciate a lower price. Thanks in advance. :lol:

#8 Hiding Bear

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 08:11 AM

Iraq never attacked us.

Not to make excuses for Clinton, he ordered a cruise missle attack on OBL and later issued secret orders to get him dead or alive - unfortunately after he could have gotten him handed over earlier.

#9 DrStool

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 08:14 AM

No Pullback

Bong Yield in New Primary Uptrend


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#10 DrStool

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 08:16 AM

When reposting third party material, please remember to include source attribution, and post only a snippet and a link.

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#11 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 09:03 AM

No Pullback

Bong Yield in New Primary Uptrend


Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is now loaded. Take a subscribatory and get the latest whiff of Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit.

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Doc I said a long time ago that Uncle Bucky might prove to be far more resilient than macro fundamentals might imply. Because in reality what are we comparing it to? Other little pieces of prettily colored toilet paper with the same "confidence only" backing. Competitive devaluation in a total fiat environment is in reality nothing other than a popularity poll. Considering the huge mountains of US denominated debt - Uncle Bucky might prove to be quite popular when it comes time to settle those debts.

#12 Hiding Bear

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 09:12 AM

No Pullback

Bong Yield in New Primary Uptrend


Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is now loaded.  Take a subscribatory and get the latest whiff of Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit.

Open your Goldmoney account today. I did!  Goldmoney, a better way to buy gold. Goldmoney is an official sponsor of your Stool Pigeons Wire message boards.

30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW!

Doc I said a long time ago that Uncle Bucky might prove to be far more resilient than macro fundamentals might imply. Because in reality what are we comparing it to? Other little pieces of prettily colored toilet paper with the same "confidence only" backing. Competitive devaluation in a total fiat environment is in reality nothing other than a popularity poll. Considering the huge mountains of US denominated debt - Uncle Bucky might prove to be quite popular when it comes time to settle those debts.

While it lasts, the strong dollar greatly diminishes the need for foreign central banks to support the dollar. Therefore expect much less foreign purchases of US treasury securities.

#13 dogsie

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 09:12 AM

Quite an indictment of Greenspan by Paul Krugman at the NYT:

Mr. Greenspan went out of his way to emphasize the financial benefits of adjustable-rate, as opposed to fixed-rate, mortgages. Let's hope that not too many families regarded that as useful advice. 


http://www.nytimes.c.../20KRUG.html?th
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Albert Einstein
You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time. Abraham Lincoln
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it George Santayana

#14 brian4

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 09:25 AM

Morning Crew-it looks to open higher-they jammed it over nite but it has been sliding steadily since-the Pig flies alone at the open-as long as it doesn't spike we will be O.K.! ;)

#15 Hiding Bear

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 09:41 AM

Mind readers of the Fed:

"We don't want to commit ourselves to anything before all the possible data is in. So while we may continually have something in the back of our minds as to the way things are going and what might happen, we don't talk about it, even to each other," McTeer said.DOW JONES NEWSWIRES April 20, 2004 8:38 a.m.



:blink: :blink: :blink:





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