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#31 brian4

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 12:22 PM

Ned-Yes CNN and the rest get the word to ignore what goes on in Iraq but BBC, Canadian Press and the Aussies still tell it and show it like it really is-they are the best sites for news.

#32 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 12:31 PM

Doc, did he go blind? :grin: :grin:

#33 brian4

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 12:42 PM

getting even nastier-news.com.au-reports that hundreds of militants have cut the main highway off between Besieged Fallujah and Abu Gharib.

#34 An Ant

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 12:43 PM

debka has a special map showing flashpoints.
Looks like war has just begun.

#35 wndysrf

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 12:52 PM

I get BBC News on my Sirius Satellite Radio in my truck.

They have been reporting from the War Zone all morning, great blow by blow commentary.
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#36 Stinky

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 01:01 PM

Commodity Investments Are Dangerous
by Frank Veneroso

Executive Summary

1. The current commodity bull market has arisen from underinvestment in commodities in the 1990's and booming demand in China amidst a subdued global economic recovery.
2. The takeoff in commodity prices since late 2003 has another basis: speculation.
3. Hedge funds and proprietary traders are far larger now and they are pouring funds into commodities.
4. Staid investors like pension funds and private bankers have found in commodities a new fad and fashion.
5. With access to zero cost credit, speculation in commodities in China is rife.
6. The combination of these three factors constitutes awesome fuel for speculative overshooting in commodities.
7. The macro economic environment is supportive of firm but not booming commodity prices.
8. The Chinese economy had a record out of control credit expansion in 2002-2003 which has led to grave misallocations of resources. Measures to slow the Chinese economy were put in place last year and are being strengthened. When the slowdown occurs it will be negative for commodity prices.
9. Japan's economy is expanding but moderately. Europe's dead in the water. The U.S. economy has been booming but a reduction in fiscal and financial stimulus could lead to a slow down.
10. Commodity prices will fall hard when the current global speculation crests.
11. The Japanese MOF/BOJ were squeezing speculators in dollar yen, threatening a cascade of reversals in reflation trades including commodities. The U.S. authorities have pressured the Japanese authorities to change their policy, thereby allowing speculation to persist.
12. Today's parabolic rise in commodity prices might peak and reverse without a precipitating event. But in all probability some such event will be required.
13. A perceived slowdown in China or in the global economy could be such an event.
14. The most obvious would be a Fed rise in interest rates. Given Easy Al's commitment to moral hazard and rampant speculation, that probably will not happen this year.
15. But, if any aspect of the multifaceted Great Reflation Trade unwinds, it could precipitate a sell off in commodities that would feed on itself. So would a steep stock market decline which would sound a change in market theme from reflation to deflation.
16. At this juncture, commodity investments are dangerous.

http://goldmoney.com...tary-print.html

#37 DrStool

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 01:12 PM

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#38 machinehead

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 01:25 PM

The problem with the so-called pollyanna scenario is that capital which should ideally be invested in business ideas that should create value and wealth in the long term, is instead now directed at trading, churning and consumption spending.

There's little if no value creation, and in the long term future generations will not benefit. 

The beauty of pure capitalism is the efficiency of allocation of capital, but since current low interest rates don't properly reflect inherent risks, the allocation process isn't working as it should.  Ergo, we have what appears above the surface to be a pollyanna scenario, but below the surface, it is destroying the remaining opportunities to get us out of the mess we are in.  It's amplifying the imbalances.

I guess I'm just agreeing with you, Doc.

Some people may think this is abstract, Austrian economics theorizing. I think it's quite real.

In decades past, COMECON, China, and even some Free World countries such as India, Ireland and Argentina shut themselves off behind tariff walls. They thought they were benefitting themselves. But the steady erosion in their living standards, which gradually become apparent in a generalised squalor and shabbiness, was all too real.

Eventually a point of recognition came -- "This is isn't working. I don't believe in the system. We can't go on this way." It happened very dramatically in eastern Europe and Russia, during 1989-1991.

In the U.S., artificially depressed interest rates have fed a gigantic overinvestment in the financial sector, consumption, and housing, financed by excessive debt. To take just one example, the U.S. has 8,153 mutual funds:

ICI Mutual Fund Statistics

Vast overcapacity and imbalance, in other words. Which will be exposed, at the point of recognition, as an engine of impoverishment and sliding living standards.

One possible view is that the rich world's economic climax actually occurred three decades ago, when per capita wage growth stopped in its tracks. Standards of living have been artificially maintained by mortgaging the future, papering over debt crises, and exploiting low cost manufactures from China and the developing world.

All of these short term fixes are nearing their expiration dates. The next recession, oil shock or debt crisis will suddenly expose in a harsh light the imbalanced North American economy, which having squandered both its existing and future capital will be poorly positioned to rebalance itself and recover.

History shows that the spotlight of economic supremacy shines brightly on one part of the globe for a few decades, and then moves on. Venice, Spain, Portugal, Holland, London, New York ... each had its day in the sun. Life doesn't end afterward, but the ebb tide of the cycle seems stagnant compared to the boom days. Far-flung colonies are shed in a hurry to slash policing costs and conserve scarce capital.

The damage wrought by the failed experiment in financial alchemy has already been done. If interest rates were allowed to return to market levels tomorrow, and North America became a nation of sober savers and investors, a harsh decade-long recession would ensue as all the excess capacity was closed down and liquidated. The longer the authorities postpone this process via financial manipulation, the more cataclysmic will be the overshoot on the downside, as the simultaneous collapse of larger and larger malinvestment bubbles amplifies the magnitude of their implosion.
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#39 wndysrf

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 01:35 PM

Machinehead: 8,200 Mutual Funds?

Krudlow was crowing last weekend that the amount of dollars invested in mutual funds has finally broken out to new highs, well beyond the March 2000 peak.

So you have had an Inflow Orgy for the Fumble Managers in 1998 - 2000.

Ane even more Fumble Inflows the last 12 months.

What about HedgeHogs?

What about Funds of Funds?

What about HedgeFunds investing in Hedgefunds?

Did they count those?

Probably not.

How big is the T-Bone Market? No doubt, a record high.

How big is the CMO Market? Even bigger than the T-Bone Market.

How big is the Structured Finance Market? Too big to count.

How big is the OTC Derivatives Market? Too big to fail.

How big is the JPM/One Derivative Colossus? Now over $1 trillion in assets. Ex-Items such as derivatives and SPV's.

How big is the Paper Parabola?

Add up all of the above.

How big is the gold market? Puny.

How big is the silver market? Almost invisible.

Do the math.
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#40 Hypertiger

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 02:13 PM

Nobody is printing money and giving it away for free...

Any inflation that you see is a side effect of the maintenance of debt inflation...The FED has supercomputers that pump out scenarios...the dooms day results and the hyperinflationary results are discarded...all that is needed is the required amount...What is the required amount? Not to much and not too little...

Central banks only have the power to postpone a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt...they can not prevent it...no matter what they do...It is impossible to sustain a debt backed monetary system or any monetary system which has compounding interest attached to it...for very long...All the various monetary schemes can do is inflate debt to it's maximum potential then implode...fractional reserve systems especially which only grow weaker the longer they operate...

But Hyper Central banks will just print money to prevent deflation...

No...If they in fact print money it will be to postpone a hyperdeflationary implosion...A hyperdeflationary implosion is systemic...it is a normal function of a monetary system in operation especially fractional reserve systems and especially systems with compound interest attached...It is impossible for any system with compound interest attached to not implode...

But Hyper when will it implode?

When it is time...When the primary central bank in the global fractional reserve banking branch network runs out of basis points to cut to sustain the debt inflationary potential required to overpower debt deflationary potential then the end is near...

Looking at the charts the most optimistic timetable is late 2004 early 2005 when the required amount of debt inflationary potential to overpower debt deflationary forces becomes infinite...or hyperinflationary...Hyperinflation would only last for a few months...I doubt there is enough computational power on the Earth to allow hyperinflation to last very long...

Then factor in the Human capital's psychology which also must be maintained...very hard to do in a hyperinflationary enviornment...

one way or the other the end is near...and there is no escape...The system will do what it's designed to do...Inflate debt to it's maximum potential then implode...the end...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#41 Howl

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 02:25 PM

I am on the verge of becoming a gold-bull.

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#42 Hypertiger

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 02:25 PM

"The longer the authorities postpone this process via financial manipulation, the more cataclysmic will be the overshoot on the downside, as the simultaneous collapse of larger and larger malinvestment bubbles amplifies the magnitude of their implosion."

hahahaha...They have already been postponing it for 45 years...what's another couple going to do?

Top sucks from the bottom...Dracula style...

Lifestyles? Opening borders just increases the supply of victims for Dracula to suck...

Unfortunately Dracula sucks victims dry faster than they can be born...pity
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 03:01 PM

Nobody is printing money and giving it away for free...

Any inflation that you see is a side effect of the maintenance of debt inflation...The FED has supercomputers that pump out scenarios...the dooms day results and the hyperinflationary results are discarded...all that is needed is the required amount...What is the required amount? Not to much and not too little...

Central banks only have the power to postpone a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt...they can not prevent it...no matter what they do...It is impossible to sustain a debt backed monetary system or any monetary system which has compounding interest attached to it...for very long...All the various monetary schemes can do is inflate debt to it's maximum potential then implode...fractional reserve systems especially which only grow weaker the longer they operate...

But Hyper Central banks will just print money to prevent deflation...

No...If they in fact print money it will be to postpone a hyperdeflationary implosion...A hyperdeflationary implosion is systemic...it is a normal function of a monetary system in operation especially fractional reserve systems and especially systems with compound interest attached...It is impossible for any system with compound interest attached to not implode...

But Hyper when will it implode?

When it is time...When the primary central bank in the global fractional reserve banking branch network runs out of basis points to cut to sustain the debt inflationary potential required to overpower debt deflationary potential then the end is near...

Looking at the charts the most optimistic timetable is late 2004 early 2005 when the required amount of debt inflationary potential to overpower debt deflationary forces becomes infinite...or hyperinflationary...Hyperinflation would only last for a few months...I doubt there is enough computational power on the Earth to allow hyperinflation to last very long...

Then factor in the Human capital's psychology which also must be maintained...very hard to do in a hyperinflationary enviornment...

one way or the other the end is near...and there is no escape...The system will do what it's designed to do...Inflate debt to it's maximum potential then implode...the end...

Hyper -- You said months ago that we would start seeing early signs of the deflationary spiral and wild cornered animal stage this spring, and I think that we are. Housing market looks like it is getting ready to go flat and turn down, the politicians have all gone nuts, the training and deployment of private armies is now a growth business and the wheels are falling off in Iraq just as the neocons are attempting a Hail Mary (excuse the pun) pass at starting a global religious war. Well, maybe it isn't a sign of economic collapse, just a collapse of society in general. CNN did a 10 min interview with a golf pro who was actually stupid enough to say that he supports the war in Iraq cause it helps protect our right to go out and play golf -- and no one even blinks an eye at this type of insane comment.

#44 wndysrf

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 03:22 PM

Hypertiger:

Al has 100 b.p. left.

That's one rate cut every 3 months.

Still waiting lines out here for entry level houses starting at $450,000.

Plenty of time for the MTV Spring Break to continue.

A year, at least.

All I have to do is fire up Piledriver's VectorVest and start screening stocks, and locate the next Zoo Animals.

1800% return on one stock like TASR.

People could care less about Fractionless Reserve Banking Theories when spectacular gains can be had for the focused. Either on the long side or the short side of the market.

Go ahead and enjoy life when you can.

California is in the midst of a Spectacular Boom. I called a top 2 years ago in the SoCal housing market.

That was a mistake.

It could go on another year. Maybe 2. Maybe 5. Who knows??
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#45 brian4

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 03:22 PM

Ya Kernel -I saw that interview it was insane-but hey his name was Lichliter which also says it all. In Iraq things don't add up-Canadian press is reporting Gunbattles all over Baghdad not just in Sadr city. Plus that tanker convoy that was destroyed doesn't compute-all tanker convoys have armed escort and usually air cover, a gunship or Black Hawk-on a flat terrain like Iraq it would take a very SIGNIFICANT force to take out an escorted Convoy which should have been easy prey for air cover which it sounds like wasn't there. On the Highway being cut by "hundreds of insurgents" again they should have been easy prey for air cover which again it sounds like it wasn't there. Whats the deal here-the insurgency should have been put down into isolated pockets by this time and it hasn't-Hmmmmm!





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