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#16 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:09 AM

Either way, it's bearish for stocks. The bullish case depends on a pollyanna scenario that the Fed can peg bond yields at low levels, in spite of rising inflation.

While the pollyanna scenario you describe fueled the rally from March 03, I don't think it can last very long, because of the imbalances that result in the allocation of capital.

Picking up from last night's discussion of the ugliness of American capitalism, Speculator said:

the problem is there is a form of capitalism that has always existed which is worse than any communist nightmare and they have huge support in the Shrub administration right now.


The problem with the so-called pollyanna scenario is that capital which should ideally be invested in business ideas that should create value and wealth in the long term, is instead now directed at trading, churning and consumption spending.

There's little if no value creation, and in the long term future generations will not benefit.

The beauty of pure capitalism is the efficiency of allocation of capital, but since current low interest rates don't properly reflect inherent risks, the allocation process isn't working as it should. Ergo, we have what appears above the surface to be a pollyanna scenario, but below the surface, it is destroying the remaining opportunities to get us out of the mess we are in. It's amplifying the imbalances.

I guess I'm just agreeing with you, Doc.

#17 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:11 AM

MWH- he is getting uppity isn't he-bullish thoughts on a Bear thread- smack him with a cream pie! :P

You gotta be joking Brian.

An iron, is more like it :D :D :D

#18 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:12 AM

For my 1000th post, perhaps it is appropriate for me to point out to WH, that my Stoolish status has now been upgraded.

Shouldn't that be Mistress, Doc?

:D :D :D

#19 brian4

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:28 AM

An Iron-LOL! Re the allocation of Capital of course you are right BUT even more of that capital is being allocated to fund Shrubs and Tonys Iraq adventure and a series of mini adventures in the former Soviet Republics and Afghanistan. It is the old story of Guns or Butter-you can't afford both. But this time it is against a backdrop of incredible debt, deficits and money creation. This time there is no way out other than a huge bust. The Sheeple on the hamster wheel (as Ned and Yo-Bob so aptly put it) who have been in self denial for eons are in my view slowly starting to get it. When they start reigning in their credit and their purchases of goods they don't need-then it is over, really over.

#20 DrStool

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:36 AM

In the US, universities award Master's degrees to both sexes.

Someone I know taught a course in fly tieing (as in fly fishing for those who are unfamiliar with fishing) at a major US University. You could say he had a Baiting Masters.

Back when I was in high school, all the kids whose last names started with A and B were in my homeroom. Our homeroom teacher was the old spinster woman, Miss Knorr. She looked like her name sounded. She called all the girls Miss followed by the last name, and all the boys Master and the last name. I was Master Adler. There was a kid named Bates in our class. It wasn't Norman, but it may as well have been. She always referred to him, properly, as Master Bates.

What was funnier was that she became furious when we erupted in gales of laughter.

She was scary. An algebra teacher. Algebra teachers are scary.

Come to think of it my 9th grade algebra teacher's last name also began with Kn. Big square hulking bald headed guy. Always wore a baggy grey suit. He'd go to work on the blackboard, turning his back to the class, writing and talking for 5-10 minutes at a time, during which, we would have these incredible long running spitball fights with giant wads of chewed up writing paper.

I guess after seeing the mess on the floor a few times, old Mr. Knowles caught on. He gave us an epic lecture about this "moronic action." From that time forth, spitball fights were always known in my high school as "moronic action". After a while we would do it just to upset him.

We got to be masters, baiting Mr. Knowles.

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#21 wndysrf

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:39 AM

However it doesn't stop me from being long as that is where my systems are telling me to be. If it changes then I'll take the loss and go the opposite way. Stop worrying so much about what is going to happen and trying to predict. Just trade it.

Yeah, I'm also still long. I got shanked out of my shorts on the open yesterday.

I'm not going to worry about all the "news events". Like Doc said, the charts will give us plenty of warning of a trend change.

Martin Goldberg at FSO is pointing out all the Bullhorn and Megaphone Expanding Triangle formations. That might be bearish.

And it might not.

I've seen WAY TOO MANY head and shoulders, expanding triangles, etc. morph into Zoo Animals.

I was looking at the weekly chart on gold this morning in IDB. Its setting up the perfect Giraffe pattern, and we are starting to climb up the neck now.

An even bigger shocker may be the OSX, which has been in a tight, downward sloping consolidation for 2 years now. If the OSX breaks out northbound, then it will morph into one of Ag's Dinosaurs.

There is absolutely little chance of a major decline when you continue to have huge breakouts on Garbage Stocks like YHOO and INSP.

I remember in mid to late 2000, you had major stocks taking huge hits, like INTC dropping 25% overnight on a warning. BRCM and PMCS falling 50 points every week. There were spectacular Cliff Dives going on everywhere. New breakouts on latecomers like EMC were the exception, not the rule.

Today, Screamer Breakouts, and Uninterrupted Boner Trends are the rule, not the exception. YHOO, JNPR, EBAY, QCOM, NSM, APOL, you name it.

The trend is up. And that's the way I'm playing it until it changes.
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#22 DrStool

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:40 AM

One of my old friends went to Holy Cross University. He likes to tell about his friend Richard Hertz. Dick was from the next town over in Massachusetts, from where Holy Cross is located. Holden, Massachusetts. Yes, he really was.

Dick Hertz, from Holden.

No lie.

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#23 brian4

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:42 AM

I've always said that no one has a better grip on things than Doc! :lol:

#24 Ned38

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:43 AM

Iraqi youths plunder a convoy of burning fuel trucks after it was attacked in the Baghdad suburb of Abu Ghraib April 9, 2004. Insurgents attacked a U.S. convoy carrying fuel west of Baghdad on Friday, killing at least nine people, witnesses said. (Akram Saleh/Reuters)

Watch-------this story is disappearing quickly

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#25 Ned38

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:47 AM

I am eating a late breakfast and have the TV on.

They are completely ignoring this story about the convoy and the 9 dead US servicemen and instead focusing on a stray mortar shell landing at the Bahgdad Sheriton Hotel.

Pisses me off

#26 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:54 AM

Maybe they are starting to get it slowly, but I think it's going to take a lot longer than any of us would like to believe.

When maintaining the perfect lifestyle is a total addiction, it's virtually impossible to turn it around on a dime. We have now had a couple of post-war generations growing up and living with the belief that everything's going to be ok.

Within our own two families, WH and I are watching as our siblings are living in a psychological bubble that allows them to spend money on the here and now rather than saving, and feel secure in the (mistaken) belief that any excesses will be one day be washed away by the money they will inherit when our parents pass away.

From an email I received from my father this morning:

I was brought up with the idea that family capital should be passed on to the next generation, to be used in such a way by them that it would continue to grow. That could be done by investing in new- or existing business, study, etc., etc. But it also could function as a buffer in case of unexpected expensive medical treatment for many years, in particular should there be no income because of incapacity.


The past 100 years or so have benefited the poor greatly as most have moved up into a middle class that enjoys a backdrop of social security, medical insurance and old-age pensions to take care of them when they need it. Simultaneously many of those who previously belonged to the upper classes, moved down into the same middle class, more or less. The downside of this has been a psychological shift away from needing to save capital for future generations and emergencies. Estate and other taxes have done their bit as well to erode this buffer, which I believe was an important tool in the continuation of what I call "good capitalism".

It's going to cost our society a couple of generations of unimaginable hardship, in order to reverse the prevailing mindset. Unfortunately, the rest of us who see it now, will be affected too as we will have to contribute our savings to paying what will be regarded to be our share of government and societal debt. We will have to live under the yoke of repressive mind control that's sure to come as increased religious fervour takes over to help people to cope.

Sometimes I think the only personal solution is to find a little house somewhere in a remote area (GregFokker has talked about this idea before), and simply detach oneself from the mess as it unfolds. I suspect this is not an uncommon thought among stoolies.

#27 DrStool

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:57 AM

Map

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#28 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:59 AM

Isn't it funny that all Algebra teachers, the world over, are weird, scary or otherwise strange? It's a universal rule.

Mine had a strikingly reptilian appearance and suffered from an advanced case of gingivitis.

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 12:00 PM

I am eating a late breakfast and have the TV on.

They are completely ignoring this story about the convoy and the 9 dead US servicemen and instead focusing on a stray mortar shell landing at the Bahgdad Sheriton Hotel.

Pisses me off

The government has almost complete control of the media now.

#30 wndysrf

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 12:09 PM

I am eating a late breakfast and have the TV on.

They are completely ignoring this story about the convoy and the 9 dead US servicemen and instead focusing on a stray mortar shell landing at the Bahgdad Sheriton Hotel.

Pisses me off

The government has almost complete control of the media now.

Yeah, of course.

Everything is Matrix Manipulated by the Plutocrats.

Wonder what will happen to those poor Japanese hostages. Fukui and Co. are refusing to pull out of Iraq. I don't blame them. They have a trillion dollar portfolio of T-Bones they need to protect.

And how about the Italians?

They have nothing to lose. I guarantee you that they cut and run. No T-Bone investments to worry about. I'm sure they don't want the dollar to crash, but since when do the Wealthy Playboys worry about exchange rates affecting their purchases of Ferrari's and Ducati's?? Nada.
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