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#1 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 07:46 AM

Wouldn't it be wonderful if we could turn the clock back to about 1955 and start over knowing what we know today? This country could have been saved at that point. By the time we got to the Kennedy assasination, it was over.

As to Americans giving a shit, well most don't. As someone said on the previous thread, they're too damned busy running on their little wheels trying to keep ahead of the bill collector. Being on a wheel, they'll never outrun the collector who at any time can stick a rod in the spokes and derail their little world. Many will suffer that exact fate, having accumulated debts far in excess of what they can pay unless they win the lottery. Of course the lotteries the sheeple are playing are the home appreciation game and Wank Street Roulette. Sadly the odds of winning either game in the current environment are little better than if they actually bought Power Ball lottery tickets. For every winner there will be hundreds of losers. Such is the nature of Ponzi finance.

Perhaps in the end, when all of the wheels have fallen off we can just bring all of our troops home and close all of the bases we have in something like 123 countries. Then on some pre-arranged Friday night we close all embassies and official offices. On Monday morning they are reopened as The American Union of States embassies and offices. Ringggg. "American Union of States Treasury." "Uh, hello, this is Japan calling, we would like to cash our United States of America bonds." "Sorry, you have the wrong number. I believe the United States of America went out of business last week." "Are you sure you don't want the United Kingdom or United Airlines?" "No we want to cash our bonds and sell back our US Dollar Federal Reserve Notes." "Federal Reserve notes? We have no Federal Reserve. They were shut down and shipped back to Europe. You might try and reach them at the BIS in Switzerland. Say while we have you on the phone, would you like to buy some of our new Gold Bucks? You'll need them if you want to trade with us. For one ounce of gold we will send you $50 Bucks. Of course you can simply trade in gold, that works too."

Of course that scenario assumes a political transition fostered by a reinvigorated citizenry forcing change. I don't believe that can happen without outright revolution. I don't believe the ballot box works anymore and the change to electronic voting will take even that option away from the people. No it will take a 20 million man march on DC. It will be up to the youth of this country to decide their own fate. They have been handed the biggest bag of shit in the history of the world. The baby boomers and their parents have been so self absorbed in their own indulgences, that they willing ceded control of this country. Yes we were duped, but only because of our refusal to open our eyes and right what was wrong. We had a chance, but we frittered it away while we accumulated all of our personal stuff so we could be better than our next door neighbor. So focused on getting ahead, we failed to recognize the future bill for all of our follies. Well bad news, that bill is due and payable. It may be the only way to settle those debts is to kill the collector and those who sent him.

#2 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 07:58 AM

Someone dropped a banana peel on the floor at the Nikkei. Down 195 to 11,897

#3

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 08:29 AM

Someone dropped a banana peel on the floor at the Nikkei. Down 195 to 11,897

Maybe they read your opening. Isn't Cheney traveling over there to deliver another offer "they can't refuse"? "Keep buying our bonds or bombs will start going off in your trains.

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 08:56 AM

DuPont to cut 2,500 jobs, unions say

Local leaders said an announcement was expected Monday. The move is an effort to trim $900 million in costs in 2 years.

By Harold Brubaker

Inquirer Staff Writer


DuPont Co. is expected to announce the elimination of at least 2,500 jobs companywide on Monday, local union leaders said yesterday.

"I have been told there will be an announcement on Monday," but it is not yet official, said David J. Gibson, president of Local 1186 of the International Brotherhood of DuPont Workers, which represents hourly workers at DuPont's Marshall Laboratory in the Grays Ferry section of Philadelphia.

http://www.philly.co.../8389658.htm?1c

#5 An Ant

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 09:06 AM

Someone dropped a banana peel on the floor at the Nikkei. Down 195 to 11,897

Tearful families of the three Japanese hostages pleaded for the government to withdraw its non-combat troops from the southern Iraqi city of Samawa, where they have been helping to rebuild the area.

Some anal cysts said mishandling of the crisis could bring down the government, a prospect that worried financial markets. Stock prices fell across the board and the yen weakened.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4684713/

#6 machinehead

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 09:06 AM

It will be up to the youth of this country to decide their own fate.  They have been handed the biggest bag of shit in the history of the world.

Flat or declining population growth in many rich countries suggests at least a subconscious cultural recognition that the future isn't that bright.

It may be that some collective instinct still regulates population growth, even if individuals don't consciously see it in those terms.

War-torn Europe and Japan were rebuilt after 1945, but there was still a source of capital and demand (the U.S.).

The horrible mistake of centralising the Federal Reserve as "central bankster to the world" is that when the whole defective leveraged global economy blows, the setback could last decades or centuries. How do you "bootstrap" back to prosperity, when capital has been heavily impaired everywhere in the wake of global bankruptcy? Bankruptcy works when there are many healthy creditors to share the burden, but not when everyone is backed against the wall together.

The Third World -- the areas least tied into global trade and finance -- may suffer the least from Depression II. Given a few centuries, they would have a road map for development, using technology the crippled rich world left behind. But would they have the discernment to shun the doomsday machine of central banking, to avoid repeating the same futile turn of the cosmic wheel that crushed us? Or will they carry icons of Al the father and Ben the son, and erect replicas of the Eccles Building as tabernacles in every city? :o
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

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#7 An Ant

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 09:09 AM

At least 40 people have been hurt, some seriously, in a poison gas attack in the Bulgarian capital.


http://news.bbc.co.u...ope/3613979.stm

#8 wndysrf

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 09:37 AM

This is The HedgeFund Economy.

Most people are too worried about Daytrading for Profit, and could care less about the Fed, what is going on in Iraq, what burdens are being handed down to their children, etc.

The goal is to outrun what ever ills affect your purchasing power. Make more money than the next guy by "trading the proper instruments". Make sure your "investments" appreciate faster than the Weimar Inflation Rate. Or make sure your "portfolio" is properly "hedged" against deflation.

Pointing and clicking and chart analyzing. Finding the next Zoo Animal like TASR, up 1200% in a year.

That assumes that every Promise Ticket will always have a Bid and an Ask.

I'm afraid that one day we'll wake up, and all the trading screens will be blank, and the HedgeFund Economy will suddenly be frozen. Locked down due to an unforseen "outlier event".
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#9 DrStool

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 09:47 AM

I don't think the Fed can control long yields. That is an unproven hypothesis. I also don't think we can have deflation if central banks are determined not to allow it. Either way, I don't know. But if cb's increase their printing to counter signs of weakness, then the result should be hyperinflation. The only true hedge is gold and some commodities. Assuming bond yields skyrocked along with inflation, PE ratios on stocks will plummet. If 5 Year Treasury bonds are yielding 20% real companies will have PE's of 5. The high flying junk might have PE's of 10 to 20.

Or we could have a typical pattern where the Fed, in a too late reaction, begins to tighten, when bond yields have already risen in response to signs of rapidly rising inflation. Rising interest rates and bond yields will initially only cause inflation psychology to become more entrenched.

Either way, it's bearish for stocks. The bullish case depends on a pollyanna scenario that the Fed can peg bond yields at low levels, in spite of rising inflation. I think we'll get the answer to that soon enough. Once yields break out above 4.25, there's a strong potential for a stunning rise as leveraged speculators recognize that the bond party is over. Since portfolio sphincters use the 5 or 10 year yield as the divisor in their valuation models, as yield rises, balanced portfolio allocations will automatically shift back to bonds. Likewise, at some point higher yields become more attractive to widows and orphans. The stock market will once more have some competition for investment dollars. In the last year, it's been a one way street. That is going to change.

Technical analysis will tell us when that change is under way. Don't be taken by surprise! Take a subscribatory to the Anals now, and follow Doc's blow by blow description of this epic battle in real time. Click the link below for instant access.

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#10 wrecked him

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 10:36 AM

This is The HedgeFund Economy.

Most people are too worried about Daytrading for Profit, and could care less about the Fed, what is going on in Iraq, what burdens are being handed down to their children, etc.

The goal is to outrun what ever ills affect your purchasing power.  Make more money than the next guy by "trading the proper instruments".  Make sure your "investments" appreciate faster than the Weimar Inflation Rate.  Or make sure your "portfolio" is properly "hedged" against deflation.

Pointing and clicking and chart analyzing.  Finding the next Zoo Animal like TASR, up 1200% in a year.

That assumes that every Promise Ticket will always have a Bid and an Ask.

I'm afraid that one day we'll wake up, and all the trading screens will be blank, and the HedgeFund Economy will suddenly be frozen.  Locked down due to an unforseen "outlier event".

Mark:

Maybe you're right. But there are only some many hours in the day that I can worry. The rest of the time is spent taking care of my kids and getting on with life. It's not perfect but it is very realistic. Do I think that things in Iraq or Paris or Jerusalem can get out of control this weekend? Certainly. Can the carry trade in the bond market start to spin out of control. Absolutely.

However it doesn't stop me from being long as that is where my systems are telling me to be. If it changes then I'll take the loss and go the opposite way. Stop worrying so much about what is going to happen and trying to predict. Just trade it.

We all know that things are not great. We all know about the lying liars and the lies that they tell. And if the screens are blank one Monday morning :unsure: , think about all the extra time you are going to be able to use to windsurf :)
A generation which ignores history has no past -- and no future

#11 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 10:46 AM

WH, with all due respect, I think Mark is the best example of a stoolie who trades the way you advocate.

Wasn't that the reason behind this particular thread in the first place?

#12 DrStool

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 10:51 AM

Cool. An intrafamily disagreement aired publicly on the Stool. :lol:

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#13 DrStool

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 10:53 AM

it is not necessary to speculate what is going to happen. The charts will tell you what is happening in plenty of time. In April of 2001, gold charts declared an end to the secular bear market in gold. I saw it an published it here on this website. There was no mystery. The signals were clear and powerful. By December 2001, it was very clear that a new bull market in gold stocks had begun. I bought a portfolio of gold stocks through a mutual fund and have held on through thick and thin ever since. I expect to continue to do so at least through most of 2005. Beyond that, impossible to say.

The very same process that occurred in 2001 on the charts of gold and gold stocks has been under way in the chart of bond yields over the past year. It is now December 2001 on the yield chart. I expect confirmation of the new secular uptrend in yield within weeks, if not days.

It is also clear on the charts that inflation is accelerating, not decelerating. In order for deflation to be of even the remotest concern, we would first need to see signs of inflation decelerating. That is nowhere to be seen. Until I see evidence to the contrary, I am in the deflation camp. So don't hurt your brain worrying about whether it will be inflation or deflation. Just follow the charts. For the long term view, use long term charts. They will give plenty of warning when things are changing. The Queen Mary doesn't turn on a dime. Neither do financial and economic trends. Deflation would be a sea change. It would not happen overnight.

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#14 wrecked him

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:00 AM

Cool. An intrafamily disagreement aired publicly on the Stool. :lol:

Doc:

Can you believe that she said "With all due respect....."

I wish that she would be that civil with me in real life. Usually our disputes sound like this. "you're wrong, and that's final".

And I sleep naked with this woman. :)
A generation which ignores history has no past -- and no future

#15 brian4

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Posted 09 April 2004 - 11:01 AM

BBC reporting a very large explosion in Baghdad near the Sheraton Hotel and the destruction of a 10 truck American tanker convoy on the highway south-the supposed insurgencey is starting to look like and smell like an out war. MWH- he is getting uppity isn't he-bullish thoughts on a Bear thread- smack him with a cream pie! :P





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