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B$ The Bell, Thursday April 8


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 07:10 AM

:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

Postcards from the edge of a worldwide oil production drop, this time Hubbert Peak
is seen in Oman:

Oman's Oil Yield Long in Decline, Shell Data Show
By JEFF GERTH and STEPHEN LABATON

Published: April 8, 2004

The Royal Dutch/Shell Group's oil production in Oman has been declining for years, belying the company's optimistic reports and raising doubts about a vital question in the Middle East: whether new technology can extend the life of huge but mature oil fields.

Internal company documents and technical papers show that the Yibal field, Oman's largest, began to decline rapidly in 1997. Yet Sir Philip Watts, Shell's former chairman, said in an upbeat public report in 2000 that "major advances in drilling" were enabling the company "to extract more from such mature fields." The internal Shell documents suggest that the figure for proven oil reserves in Oman was mistakenly increased in 2000, resulting in a 40 percent overstatement.

http://www.nytimes.c...s/08OIL.html?hp


Bears like myself will be hanging by their claws until the end of the IRA season - April 15, which is also the settlement date for Treasury auctions.

Bonchev gives us a nice recap of Oyster's technical analysis here:

http://www.capitalst...=0

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  • Oman_oil.JPG


#2 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 07:53 AM

Going to be a Yahoo day. And lordy we still have the insufferable wait for the almighty e-bay. Who would've thunk the dot.bomb mania would still linger on by this stage in the game? Should have done the DGRV.com IPO in 1999. Of course we failed the test, we were an actual business with earnings.

Game plan for day. 20 point gap-up, down, up, sideways up, down, up. but of course that only describes the first 34 nanoseconds. :lol:

Probably a slam day for the metals. The matrix won't want anyone believing that there is safety in the metals going into a long weekend of religous significance while the geo-political situation is obviously so calm. Rumsfeld says that the uprising is only a few people. The tens of thousands marching around in Iraq are obviously just curious on-lookers. I would think the whole bunch of Neocons would gladly rally behind Bush and walk around Iraq waving the American flag given the descriptions of the Iraq situation by the administration. Bush says they will hand over authority on June 30th, just as soon as they figure out who to hand it over to. I kid you not, that's what he said. Many battle weary troops set to rotate out will now get an all expense paid 6 month vacation in Iraq instead. I'm sure they're thrilled and spending their idle time pouring over the holiday brochures.

Whatever good that used to exist in government and coporate offices died decades ago. Since then it's simply been a consolidation. The news media now lies in the hands of a few people, conglomerates rule the coporate world, and the power is increasingly condensed within the Beltway. Short of total anarchy and revoltion, this is what we will be saddled with the rest of our lives.

Earthquakes are rumbling around Yellowstone. I suppose it would be to much to ask to have Wyoming shot into the air and land on Crawford, Texas? Of course that only kills one cockroach and not the nest. Would be a satisfying "crunch" though.

The administration has no exit plan because there cannot be one as long as we are determined to enforce a government. Here's a suggestion. Pack up the HUmvees and leave. Sure there will no doubt be power struggles and likely the splitting of the country back into tribal lands. The alternative? We stay and the bloodshed will only escalate with the destrution far outpacing any rebuilding efforts. Maybe in 50 years we can announce that Iraq is finally a democratic government firmly in the hands of the 2 remaining Iraquis ruling over an oil depleted wasteland.

#3 DrStool

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 08:17 AM

There has been a great deal of consternation expressed about the market's behavior. I think a lot of that is because we try to attach meaning to it. The fact is that market levels are simply a meter of liquidity, and liquidity preferences. Stock prices in themselves have no meaning other than that. Crowd behavior is a function of whether the crowd's pockets are being stuffed or emptied. Forget this stuff about valuations or discounting or the economy or news. It's all BS, after the fact explanations that are a smoke screen for the real reason the market's price levels change.

Liquidity.

Several months back, I began forecasting an upmove in April, based on seasonal and cyclical factors. What has been happening here is a little surprising in terms of its strength, but should not be a surprise in terms of direction. From last night's Anals:

So tonight's shenanigans aren't much different than the disgraceful performance we witnessed this afternoon. As long as portfolio sphincters have people stuffing cash in their pockets, they will use any excuse, no matter how flimsy, how ridiculous, to stuff it in the market. There is no question in my mind that this is going to end horribly in another couple of weeks. Just not yet. IRA season ends April 15, and it will take these jerks a few days to get "all in." After that, I fully expect the market to tank.


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#4 DrStool

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 08:22 AM

Gold Looks Good

Gold Stocks Not So Good
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#5 Hiding Bear

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 08:28 AM

Doc is right, individuals and mutual funds are determined to invest at this time regardless of fun-dementals or news.

There seems to be no doubt now that the Fed, at least for the last six weeks has engineered some sort of slowdown, not necessarily leading to a rate hike soon.
This has been indirectly offset to some extent by the BOJ, who now expands its balance sheet annually in March very rapidly to make things look good for the fiscal year end. The BOJ should slow down greatly in April.

Liquidity should catch up with the market in a week or two, if not - it will be time to change the game plan.

yobob - nice summary.

#6 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 08:47 AM

Probably going to sit this day out as it looks like the lunatics are well in control of the asylum. The RUT is in uncharted waters, the spoos are being jammed and the NAZ is on fire, splitting is back in vogue, they are killing the CDN dollar lapping up the clownbuck as they step hard on the metals.
Meanwhile the bond opens lower again as the market is euphoric over rising interest rates, termination of refi madness and blood in Iraq. Fuku will most likely be called to arms to support the bond so the Jekyll can attempmt to kill what few bears are left.
Days like this amaze me. Right is wrong and wrong is right regardless of where you look.
They have a clean sweep going here with one exception....yield
Just in...More disinformation from the matrix on UI claims...and the bond yield takes off again but not because of the lies, as the bond players KNOW what this is really all about..The only thing that is not telling a lie today is the bond. This will be reversed if Fuku shows and temporarily halt the decline.
Rising yields will drive a stake through this thing but not before the transfer of wealth is complete.

And it all started on something as foolish as Yahoos to good to be true earnings and splitting the pie in two.
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#7 HiHat

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 08:49 AM

Expecting I will try to get short around 1153-1154 area.

Interday scalp. cause if 1153 taken out........Market test
of highs probably baked in.

#8 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 08:53 AM

There has been a great deal of consternation expressed about the market's behavior. I think a lot of that is because we try to attach meaning to it. The fact is that market levels are simply a meter of liquidity, and liquidity preferences. Stock prices in themselves have no meaning other than that. Crowd behavior is a function of whether the crowd's pockets are being stuffed or emptied. Forget this stuff about valuations or discounting or the economy or news. It's all BS, after the fact explanations that are a smoke screen for the real reason the market's price levels change.

Liquidity.

Several months back, I began forecasting an upmove in April, based on seasonal and cyclical factors. What has been happening here is a little surprising in terms of its strength, but should not be a surprise in terms of direction. From last night's Anals:

So tonight's shenanigans aren't much different than the disgraceful performance we witnessed this afternoon. As long as portfolio sphincters have people stuffing cash in their pockets, they will use any excuse, no matter how flimsy, how ridiculous, to stuff it in the market. There is no question in my mind that this is going to end horribly in another couple of weeks. Just not yet. IRA season ends April 15, and it will take these jerks a few days to get "all in." After that, I fully expect the market to tank.


The only things that matter are liquidity and cycles, and both of them will turn negative within weeks, if not days. To get with the flow, take a subscribatory and download your Anals now! Click the link below.

Yes Doc I am in your camp as always
Too much money to put to work
Yields will not matter until they do
Short term how can one expect a market that gets this excited about YAHOO to care about the pillar under debt creation.
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#9 HiHat

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 08:57 AM

Short target may also be @ 1151ish , as 1153 may set up STIFF
resistance. It hangs on strength of short covering.

#10 machinehead

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 09:01 AM

yobob1 - your commentary says it all.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#11 Stinky

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 09:05 AM

From last night...


Thanks for the pearls of wisdom everyone... today and everyday.

I have learned so much from you all and am amazed daily by your insights and generosity.

I already know day trading is not for me. Really, I just want to manage my total portfolio better and in this enviroment, do not believe that the mantra of buy and sell will serve us well. So, unless you are a buy and hold until you die, you have to be a trader. Forced into that role, I just want to better than what I am right now which is plain god awful.

Nite.

Stinky

P.S. I love my name. It cracks me up every time I say it. It's so perfect for me on alot of levels. Glad folks like it.

#12 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 09:06 AM

If they are able to rally FNM FRE SLM COF MBI MTG FITB NFI KRB on this today
I will be very very surprised :ph34r: Posted Image
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#13 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 09:27 AM

Rescue operation on the bond now on sched
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#14 brian4

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 09:28 AM

Good thoughts expressed already and it is early. Well said Yo-Bobby-this is the day BEFORE a major holiday so light volume which will allow the pricks to do what they wish as they push Jello around the plate. The day before good Friday has been up for 5 straight years-can they make it 6??? Hi-Hat I agree 1150 is the place to short-the pig flies alone at the Bell. ;)

#15 brian4

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Posted 08 April 2004 - 09:32 AM

stopped at 1145-breakeven.





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