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The Seven Per Cent Solution


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 01:15 AM

:D Welcome to B4 the Bell for March 22, 2004! :D

The Seven Per Cent Solution. Is this the latest installment from Strand Magazine, concerning the reminiscences of Dr. Watson? No this is the daily price limitation in Taiwan that keeps the market from dropping more than 7% - like it tried to do today:

In a sign of public anxiety, Taiwan's stock market fell nearly 7 percent Monday morning and would have fallen even further if not for rules preventing individual stocks from falling more than 7 percent in a trading session.

http://www.nytimes.c.../22TAIW.html?hp


Aide's Book Faults Bush 9/11 Response
Fingers Pointed at Iraq, Clarke Writes
http://www.washingto...-2004Mar21.html

"I realized with almost a sharp physical pain that [Defense Secretary Donald H.] Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz were going to try to take advantage of this national tragedy to promote their agenda about Iraq," he writes.

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#2 DrStool

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 08:25 AM

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 08:35 AM

Good Morning, HidingBear

Let me know how that sherlock story turns out

hehehe



The Moon is void-of-course today, so usually that means
"whatever happens doesn't amount to much."

So much for that valuable thought!



Have a great day everybody! We have to keep our spirits high even when things around us seem dismal. :D


Sherlock

#4 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 08:38 AM

B4 the Bell was spectacular on the weekend
Again Thanks to all for their contributions

On the morning front WOW

Gold +2.50
Silver +.13 off the highs of $7.73 :D :D :D :D :D :D
Dollar 88.10 -.44
Bonds Up
Spoos 1099.0 -8.25 Low 1097.25
Naz 1385.5 -13.50 low 1382.0
Oil 37.79

Big news from Sinclair
"All that being said, I am changing my strategy in gold and suggesting you do the same. Having bought correctly and made some sales into strength, I will now hold the balance of my position, adding to it on any price weakness but not making any further sells at these levels"

http://www.jsmineset...911&T_ARID=1923

Why is it Im still terrified of the invisible hand making an appearence out of nowhere? :ph34r: :ph34r: :ph34r:
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"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#5 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 08:50 AM

And of course the world markets are not in a good mood either

Pain everywhere




http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#6 machinehead

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 08:54 AM

B4 the Bell was spectacular on the weekend
Again Thanks to all for their contributions

Ditto that. Depends and Plunger were proven right about their 'sense memory.'

Last night's comments from Doctor Wrecked Him assume new significance, in light of today's assassination of Hamas founder Ahmed Yassin.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Lou Fintor said U.S. officials were in touch with Israeli and Palestinian authorities. "The United States urges all sides to remain calm and exercise restraint," he said.


As a thought exercise for the reader, what is missing from the U.S. statement? :huh:

For the first time, Hamas also threatened the United States, saying America's backing of Israel made the assassination possible. "All the Muslims of the world will be honored to join in on the retaliation for this crime," Hamas said in a statement.


AP news article

Stock fuc-u-tures don't like these new developments, as well they shouldn't. It's horrible news for all of us.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 09:14 AM

B4 the Bell was spectacular on the weekend
Again Thanks to all for their contributions

Ditto that. Depends and Plunger were proven right about their 'sense memory.'

Last night's comments from Doctor Wrecked Him assume new significance, in light of today's assassination of Hamas founder Ahmed Yassin.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Lou Fintor said U.S. officials were in touch with Israeli and Palestinian authorities. "The United States urges all sides to remain calm and exercise restraint," he said.


As a thought exercise for the reader, what is missing from the U.S. statement? :huh:

For the first time, Hamas also threatened the United States, saying America's backing of Israel made the assassination possible. "All the Muslims of the world will be honored to join in on the retaliation for this crime," Hamas said in a statement.


AP news article

Stock fuc-u-tures don't like these new developments, as well they shouldn't. It's horrible news for all of us.

I'm starting to wonder if the "authorities" aren't actually looking for a major war. The whole ME mess conbined with the constant beating of the war drums, is looking like we are inviting retaliation. Something really stinks.

#8 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 09:14 AM

As a thought exercise for the reader, what is missing from the U.S. statement?  :huh:

A statement denouncing international terrorist acts?

Stock fuc-u-tures don't like these new developments, as well they shouldn't. It's horrible news for all of us.


Ditto that.

#9 depends

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 09:15 AM

in light of today's assassination of Hamas founder Ahmed Yassin....

It would have been much cheaper to just push him down the steps.
Why do they waste so much on helicopters missiles?
And who has to clean up that mess?

I will be taking profits when I see them...at least thats my plan for now.
and reloading on the rallies...if there are any.
Looking for relative strength today as well. BUD was strong Friday, kinda
figures.

#10 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 09:23 AM

Long bond yield opens with a gap down in yield

Flight to "safety"??????????????



Posted Image
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 09:28 AM

B4 the Bell was spectacular on the weekend
Again Thanks to all for their contributions

Ditto that. Depends and Plunger were proven right about their 'sense memory.'

Last night's comments from Doctor Wrecked Him assume new significance, in light of today's assassination of Hamas founder Ahmed Yassin.

In Washington, State Department spokesman Lou Fintor said U.S. officials were in touch with Israeli and Palestinian authorities. "The United States urges all sides to remain calm and exercise restraint," he said.


As a thought exercise for the reader, what is missing from the U.S. statement? :huh:

For the first time, Hamas also threatened the United States, saying America's backing of Israel made the assassination possible. "All the Muslims of the world will be honored to join in on the retaliation for this crime," Hamas said in a statement.


AP news article

Stock fuc-u-tures don't like these new developments, as well they shouldn't. It's horrible news for all of us.

Awwwwwe..c'mon, what's with all the negativity around the planet this morning?

Why in the world global tensions would arise for something as trivial as vaporizing (with a rocket), a blind old man in a wheelchair as he departs a place of worship... is simply beyond me.

Any guesses on when the DOW breaks below 10,000?

I pick 9:35 a.m. on 3/22/04

"You mean an hour from now?"

They don't call me "Plunger" for nothin'!

#12 Charmin

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 09:30 AM

I'm starting to wonder if the "authorities" aren't actually looking for a major war. The whole ME mess conbined with the constant beating of the war drums, is looking like we are inviting retaliation. Something really stinks.

Does it surprise you that we and Israel ARE in a major war?

and here's a good one on the Iraqi frontline....

Jay Leno
http://michaelw.net/...naboutIraq.html

Apparently there's an ongoing effort to re-write the constitution of Iraq. Jay Leno had a great comment:

"Hey, why don't we send them ours? It worked well for us for over two hundred years . . . and we're not using it anymore . . "
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#13 machinehead

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 09:31 AM

Dr. John Hussman quotes a CSFB report on the mortgage market, which is now larger than the Treasury market (!):

The GSE's (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) among others, have been busy trying to redistribute this prepayment risk to broker dealers, among others. One way they do this is by buying an OTC interest rate option. This explains why the notional amount of interest rate options purchased by Fannie Mae has increased from about $27 billion at the end of 1998 to a whopping $444 billion by September of last year. In a nutshell, an increasingly small group of dealers are taking on an increasingly large amount of prepayment risk. Their hedging creates a feedback loop because dealers, collectively, will tend to buy Treasuries when interest rates are falling and sell them when interest rates are rising. Simultaneous hedging by dealers has the capacity to turn a relatively small move in interest rates into a relatively large one.


The net position in global interest rate options written by dealers (including FDIC insured banks like J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America) has exploded from a neutral position in 1999 to a net short position of -$888 billion in notional value.


Tail wags dog

Haven't we seen this movie before? It ran in Oct. 1987. It was called "portfolio insurance."

If mortgage rates start rising, the dealers who are $888 billion net short on rates are going to dump Treasuries by the ton into a market with no bids.

Will we experience the first bond market crash, in which bonds drop by 10% or 20% in a single day?

It is perfectly clear that a major train wreck is being set up here. There is no soft landing.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#14

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 09:36 AM

Dr. John Hussman quotes a CSFB report on the mortgage market, which is now larger than the Treasury market (!):

The GSE's (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) among others, have been busy trying to redistribute this prepayment risk to broker dealers, among others. One way they do this is by buying an OTC interest rate option. This explains why the notional amount of interest rate options purchased by Fannie Mae has increased from about $27 billion at the end of 1998 to a whopping $444 billion by September of last year. In a nutshell, an increasingly small group of dealers are taking on an increasingly large amount of prepayment risk. Their hedging creates a feedback loop because dealers, collectively, will tend to buy Treasuries when interest rates are falling and sell them when interest rates are rising. Simultaneous hedging by dealers has the capacity to turn a relatively small move in interest rates into a relatively large one.


The net position in global interest rate options written by dealers (including FDIC insured banks like J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, and Bank of America) has exploded from a neutral position in 1999 to a net short position of -$888 billion in notional value.


Tail wags dog

Haven't we seen this movie before? It ran in Oct. 1987. It was called "portfolio insurance."

If mortgage rates start rising, the dealers who are $888 billion net short on rates are going to dump Treasuries by the ton into a market with no bids.

Will we experience the first bond market crash, in which bonds drop by 10% or 20% in a single day?

It is perfectly clear that a major train wreck is being set up here. There is no soft landing.

FRE has a big problem...a big problem.

Just take my word for it.

#15 DrStool

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Posted 22 March 2004 - 09:36 AM

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