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Riverboating Groper's Paradise


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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 04:56 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – January 2, 2003

Welcome back to Riverboater’s Paradise.

We opened the year with a full blown hysteria move, with a TICK reading over 1200 for over 20 minutes, with a peak reading close to 1500. Looks like everbody is in.

Ever been out with that hot chick you were too scared to touch? You know, the one who is so good looking, you dare not “ruin it” by trying to grab her for a quick feel. But you hear of your friends doing it, and getting away with it. But you never had the guts to go for it.

This morning, after suspecting a hard jam to the upside after Al Green spiked up the futures, I decided to reach into the blouses of KLAC, NVLS, and MXIM for a grope. Over the next two hours, I was up over a buck on each. Ooohhh, that felt good!! But during the mid day flatline, I decided to take my money and run. Chickened out again. I expected at least $2 on these.

But now I have some courage. Maybe I’ll try again tomorrow and buy the dip. And I’ll keep going every day until I get my hand shoved aside.

One day, the fear gauges will be maxed out, the bullish percentage index will be in the basement, and many stocks will be in the waterfall mode. I’ll give you guys the signal when that occurs. When we reach that point, I’ll tell you guys to throw these SuperChicks in the back seat and start taking her clothes off. No questions asked. That will be the time to go long immediately, and ask for permission later.

Sound too crass? In today’s Program Robot trading environment, in the middle of the Liquidity Parabola, one must be prepared to take some chances by getting aggressive with these screamers with low self esteem.

In the meantime, it appears that we are in for a perfect setup to suck in The Public. Today’s newspapers were smothered with “economy recovery hopes” and “stock gains for 2003” headlines. The likelihood of 4 down years in a row seems to be a virtual impossiblity by the “experts”. Here’s a sampling of the headlines from The Wall Struck Journal and The Los Angeles Crimes:

“Economists Expect Spending By Business to Lead Recovery”

“Amid Deep Skepticism, Some Market Pros Tout Stocks For ‘03”

“San Diego On The Rise With Help From Developers, Tech”

“Consumer Data Suggest Strength Is Sufficient to Avoid Recession”

“Optimism Rises For Resurgence of Tech IPO’s”

“Investors Seek Ray of Hope”

In the meantime, Bambi was reporting over at CBS MarketWatch. She has an article about the greatest Pumphouse of all time: Wit SoundView. You know, this is the outfit that hits the tape with regular announcments about like “defending the stock” and “compelling valuation” and “must accumulate here”, etc. the day after a stock gets blown up.

“Year 2003 may surprise tech investors”, wrote Arnie Berman of SoundView Technology Group. “Most of our predictions run counter to the prevailing view," he said.

Counter to what prevailing view? The only view I saw from this group last year was extreme bullishness.

“Berman's top proclamation is that technology investors will enjoy positive returns this year. If it happens, it would be the first time since 1999. Many commentators note that over the last half decade, when the market gains ground in January, the full-year return has been positive 90 percent of the time. But, when the market is down in December, as it was, and up in January, the market is "always" up for the full year. Ostensibly, Berman is looking for a positive January.”

“2003 will turn out to be a surprisingly good IT spending year, with global IT spending leading. Berman believes that the pervasive uncertainty of 2002 and desire to postpone forms of discretionary capital spending will give way to willingness to invest in "basic infrastructure." Hardware and component companies should benefit from this trend, says Berman.”

“Revenue and earnings estimates for tech are under pressure in the first part of the year until they turn positive by midyear. Berman expects aggregate revenue and earnings estimates for the tech sector to be higher on Dec. 31, 2003. Upside surprises will be most profound in hardware, he said.”

How does this firm get paid? By Kevin Landis?

Do they manage any money?

When will these guys finally become discredited?

Three years in a bear market, with the Nasdaq down 70%, and this firm is still in business?

Incredible.

As expected, the Program Robots returned from vacation to jam the indexes up for the new year, in order draw in all the sideline hopers. Will this year be a new record for the Programs? Last year saw an all time high in program volume:

“Program trading on the NYSE pushed to new heights in 2002. The computer-aided strategies used mostly by institutional investors accounted for 32.5% of the Big Board’s average daily volume, compared to 27.6% in 2001, 21.4% in 2000, and 19.4% in 1999, and 9.9% in 1989.”

Still waiting for Louis Rukeyser to interview some of these Black Boxes.

Buddha was sitting in the Luxury Box at the Gambler’s Arena viewing the action.

“Al Green is obliging the smart crowd by spiking futures contracts furiously. This is lovely action. Low TRIN high hysteria beginning of year buying. Excellent short set ups coming once this momentum abates by early next week. Then best to merely average into BEARX, puts, index puts and turn off computer. Trend for day is already in. High suspended price line which holds on low TRIN readings means closing out at high of day. Takes no ghost come from the grave to tell me this my Lord.”

“More importantly I ask, Will Leslie LaRoche be swapping boyfriends early this year? She is moving up the promotional ranks at CrapVision, this means significantly more money, higher maintainence costs, better after hour haunts and no more shopping at Victoria Secret. In fact, lets throw out all the catalogues and hire some nameless gopher at the station to do our shopping for us at speciality S&M boutiques down in Soho. Maybe even bag a party invitation for Bobby deNiro's jungle-fever 2003 get together. Be the only white girl there. Troll some serious high-end merchandise, score a few big phone numbers and pad the client list. Maybe one of her dungeon customers like Art Cashin shows up at the party and brings some seriously capitalized friends with him.”

“They heavily promoted the SPX 775 double bottom last October with updates on it every 5 to 7 minutes. They coached the entire world into beleiving that the Anthony Robbins bottom signal was in and that all would be free and clear from there if they only 'believed', if they only were 'positive enough', if they only had the strength of will to put an end to the 'selling madness'. The loud florescent green arrows pointing North at that line back in October were more heavily marketed than the entire career of scam pop queen J. Lopez. The only thing that will get that streetwalker to stop shaking her booty 24 hours a day into the video cam is a good hot poker. Then a long and perilous period of recuperation under the care of famed Israelis Proctologist Miphram Schlomo. Please would someone just lay a truckload of yellow Police tape down across her backside and declare it offlimits for 2003?”

“Cue ball headed Mickey Grasso is the perfect blind date for LaRoche. A low life criminal who dispenses pain by the kilo all day long is the ideal candidate for suspension from Leslie's ceiling and some repeated whippings. She should be very busy this year what with the coming Bear avalanche and subsequent hundreds and hundreds of deeply disturbed Wall Street conmen.”

“This coached rally is Manna from heaven. Its a sailor's night out in Bangkok. Its running into Emma on a nude beach in Crete. Its having a whole bucket full of rotten tomatoes stashed under your front row seat at a Mariah Carey concert. Its nearly equivalent to seeing Larry 'the tick' Kudlow hauled away in a form fitting straight jacket as the great Kodiak finds new maturity this coming March. Its learning that Cramer is being indicted for securities fraud. Its hearing in a news flash that Grubman is getting 20 years on Rikers Island. Let us pray for more Manna.”

How long will the rally last? Who knows. The VIX collapsed over 3 points today. The Nasdaq TRIN was near .20 most of the day. Major TICK readings came in on the open. Probably will pull back a little tomorrow and then a slow drift up to around the 925 area on the S & P into mid-January. No doubt the public will be piling in the next few days, as the HedgeHogs will be selling into their buying. They will likely keep the bias to the upside during the distribution.

As far as the volume goes, it was on the light side. So far, so good for the bears. If we go up again tomorrow and the volume picks up, then more longs will be added. If this rally is for real, then we should see the Summation and McClellan quickly turn to the upside.

Now, More Than Ever.

The Global markets are joined at the SOX. The SOX was up 6% today, and the DAX was up 6% today, and the Nikkei will be up 6% tonight, and NDX will probably close up 6% in an afterhours jamfest. The entire globe is betting on a tech recovery. Never before have billions of market cap been resubstantiated based on the hope and the illusion of a price recovery in the DRAM chip.

Oh, one other thing.

The Treasury market was smoked. Over 6 days worth of longs are now in a losing position, marking one of the biggest reversals of the last 3 months.

Position Summary:

Added ½ short on IBM at $80
Added ½ short on ROST at $44

Full long position on QQQ at $25

Daytraded long on KLAC, NVLS, and MXIM for $1.00 each. Sold in mid-afternoon.

We are 50% short, 28% long, 18% cash.

Half Short:

LOW at $42
INTU at $53
C at $38
TGT at $34
MBI at $50
JPM at $25
AMGN at $52
IBM at $80
ROST at $44

Quarter Short:

FRE at $68
CFC at $49
KBH at $49
LEN at $56
TOL at $27
BBBY at $35
COCO at $40
KSS at $66
NCEN at $28
NYT at $45
WSM at $27

Full Long:

GG at $11
QQQ at $25

Half Long:

BGO at $1.31
HL at $4.10
PAAS at $5
DROOY at $3.35
GLG at $9
MDG at $16
GSS at $1.72
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#2 wndysrf

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 05:25 PM

Today's TICK Chart:

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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#3 wndysrf

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 05:26 PM

Bambi.

CBS MarketWatch's Foreign Exotica:

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#4 bubbadropping

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 05:46 PM

Chances are Arnie Berman over at Witless Soundview was a secretary working the phones last year. Thats his qualification. An idiot bar mitvah boy fresh from Westchester High or somewhere. Seriously. Anyone who has spent anytime at all on the Hollywood treadmill knows that very often the secretaries of last year are called up off their knees,given a soiled hanky to wipe their mouths with and then shoved into duty right in the front lines. Very often millions of dollars of responsibility are given to airball brains who jimmy their way into position off a pair of well worn knee pads. Frightening really. Just look at the ring wraith that has hustled herself onto W's right hand side, right up there at the top. Entire foreign policy and international security rests on the whisper of this Knee Padder out of Stanford. Terrifying really.

#5 Guest_RiffRaff_*

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 06:01 PM

HD halted, news pending

#6 Guest_RiffRaff_*

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 06:07 PM

Lowered guidance on HD>......................

The Home Depot (NYSE: HD - News), the world's largest home improvement retailer, today announced that it is revising its diluted earnings per share guidance for the fiscal year ending February 2, 2003 from $1.57 to between $1.53 and $1.55. The change in earnings per share outlook is due to slowing sales during the month of December, which lowered the company's expectation of a decline in comparable store sales in the fourth quarter to as much as 10 percent versus previously provided guidance of a decline of between three and five percent.

#7 bubbadropping

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 06:10 PM

A warning on netzero.com. If anyone is ever considering using them as a backup avoid them at all costs. They are a scam operation and make it incredibly difficult and expensive to cancel their membership. The slowest and worst backup I have ever experienced and the most deceptive.

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 06:40 PM

Lowered guidance on HD>......................

The Home Depot (NYSE: HD - News), the world's largest home improvement retailer, today announced that it is revising its diluted earnings per share guidance for the fiscal year ending February 2, 2003 from $1.57 to between $1.53 and $1.55. The change in earnings per share outlook is due to slowing sales during the month of December, which lowered the company's expectation of a decline in comparable store sales in the fourth quarter to as much as 10 percent versus previously provided guidance of a decline of between three and five percent.

Ha, was listening to CNNFN this afternoon where they answer callers questions. And this one caller asked about LOW (Lowe's) and the guest talking head recommended HD as they were a much better value than LOW. I hope the poor schmuck didn't listen.

#9 ThroneJockey

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 06:42 PM

Happy New Year Stoolies.

How could things get any better? Everything is falling into place.

Today’s rally conforms to Simple Guy’s calls for the last several days, a chance to relieve a little Dover Sole, and an opportunity to begin building the H&S right shoulder. A rally in equities and Uncle Buck should allow for a bit of a pull back in Gold prices (today’s gold increase not withstanding), which will also conform to Arch Crawford’s call for a high in gold Dec 31, presumably to be followed by pullback before heading to a new high on Feb 19. The Market should head higher (and Gold down) pushed by Doc’s 10-13 wk cycle and rampant bullish sentiment for a couple weeks into Jan10 or so conforming again to SG’s call and other’s fib and astro turn dates, which also happen to occur just prior to Q402 reporting and OpEx. Then Down, Down, Down giving us all one more chance to get extremely short equities and long gold at much better prices, and just prior to the outbreak of WWIII, coming soon to a theater near you.

‘Tis a beautiful T’ing! Meshing like the gears on a Mack truck…

It might even really happen that way. But SG and Arch could be wrong, and I know even less.

Best of Luck to all

Disclosure: Fully long 200% NDX via RYVYX

#10 Hypertiger

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 06:44 PM

The milking continues...

Hopes and dreams will soon be ashes...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#11 Guest_The CoinGuy_*

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 06:50 PM

Just got in,

Did I miss Arch? If not, what time is he on?

Thanks,

The CoinGuy

#12 machinehead

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 06:51 PM

The new moon occurred 36 minutes before the close. Today was a classic "zero pop" rally. (The new moon phase is 0 degrees; the full moon is 180 degrees.) If it runs true to form, there will be follow-through tomorrow and probably into early next week.

The 3.5-to-1 advance-decline ratio, and 15-to-1 up-volume to down-volume ratio, have "blast off" characteristics. These are the best technicals in months. This level of momentum could carry on for weeks or even months.

The 1929-32 bear market lasted 34 months and 5 days. For the DJIA, which peaked in Jan. 2000, the "8 July 1932" analogue was reached on Nov. 19, 2002. But for the Nasdaq, the "1932 bottom analagous date" is less than two weeks away, on Jan. 15th. For the S&P, it's Jan. 29th.

These dates are cited simply to indicate that 3 years of miserable market action is a long time. Some kind of relief rally is due. But since the market remains overvalued, and too many silver-tongued borkers and analcysts have yet to discover their true destiny as vinyl siding salesmen, the relief rally is likely to abort early. At the end of 2003, we might reflect: in like a lion; out like a lamb ... if not a dead duck.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#13 Guest_The CoinGuy_*

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 06:52 PM

Nevermind...ON NOW

TCG

#14 PileDriver

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 06:54 PM

this rally is such an awesome gift. Really didn't think it would happen. Glad I waited before commiting the remainder of funds to BEARX and putting on the shortfolio picked last night.

Will we make it to Jan 10th?

So far its moving fast so it may end earlier than expected. Not to worry, PCR and some other indicators should pinpoint the end to this Monkey rally. :grin:

Donged ESRX at open for a quickie.

#15 ProlerBear

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Posted 02 January 2003 - 07:01 PM

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