Weak End B4 The Bell
232 replies to this topic
Posted 19 March 2004 - 11:49 PM
Icky- I respect u and your views "non urbis Carborundum"- don't let the Bastards grind you down!
Posted 19 March 2004 - 11:58 PM
Well, B$, that means a lot --
see you on the other side!
what is it you say? "Shields up & chin-straps buckled"?
Posted 20 March 2004 - 12:05 AM
A walk down memory lane
Posted 20 March 2004 - 12:09 AM
Gold today, gone tomorrow
In case y'all was to buzzy to get to FIENDBEAR today...
Posted 20 March 2004 - 12:26 AM
Sleddy-thanks for that- as a young officer-Dwaine Eddy made me immortal-but quickly I became Mortal. War is a mugs game unless you are the guy at the top saying it is "just and right"-I'd rather hear "Zambesi" or "See you later Alligator"!
Posted 20 March 2004 - 12:32 AM
Bro, don't bogart that doobie!!
I wore out 2 cassettes on this one. My son just bought the remastered CD
Posted 20 March 2004 - 08:30 AM
The chart of the Ten Year Treasury Yield, to which mortgage rates, and by extension, the entire global speculative sphere is pegged - is in a precarious position right here. That waterfall drop off of the 40 level that it had earlier this month was the result of a worse than expected jobs number. It led to another round of RefiMadness, but if you look at it now, it's moved up off a double bottom - most likely on inflation fears. The whole "Global Speculative Frenzy Musical Chairs" game is connnected to that chart and in the event foreigners stop buying treasuries and/or the actual inflation (which is running rampant under the surface) is finally recognized (both of which can occur simultaneously)...well, if that chart gaps up, it's gameoverville.
"Someone just tripped on the cord and the music stopped!"
Posted 20 March 2004 - 08:45 AM
Damn ... I wish I had known about this 'Rule 5 toggle' last night. You programmers and your damned 'back doors.'
Hyperinflation (if it comes) doesn't last long ... a few months, typically. It is totally unstable and burns itself quickly ... due to social as well as economic factors.
The main effect of inflation on stock prices is to compress the P/E ratio. Today's generous P/Es in the twenties and thirties would be crunched to perhaps three to five if inflation got into double digits.
The best example is the DJIA, 1966 (the secular top in real terms) to 1982. Nominally the Dow fell 22%, from 995 to 777. In real terms, it lost 75% of its purchasing power. Both figures ignore dividends, which would have cushioned the blow.
Summer 1974, October 1978 and October 1979 all provided examples of hard slams to stock prices during high inflation, though none qualified as a crash.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
Posted 20 March 2004 - 08:48 AM
Can you say "tone deaf?"
Bush campaign gear made in Burma
His campaign store sells a pullover from nation whose products he has banned from being sold in the U.S.
BY LAUREN WEBER
March 18, 2004, 9:49 PM EST
The official merchandise Web site for President George W. Bush's re-election campaign has sold clothing made in Burma, whose goods were banned by Bush from the U.S. last year to punish its military dictatorship. The merchandise sold on www.georgewbushstore.com includes a $49.95 fleece pullover, embroidered with the Bush-Cheney '04 logo and bearing a label stating it was made in Burma, now Myanmar.
Bush last July signed into law the Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act, saying "The United States will not waver from its commitment to the cause of democracy and human rights in Burma."
Violators of the import ban are subject to fines and jail, according to the U.S. Treasury Department.
Human rights watcher Charles Kernaghan, director of the National Labor Committee, said the slip-up showed a lack of conviction on the administration's part. "Given the debate about outsourcing, it's amazing that the campaign would be selling stuff made in the most brutal country on earth, known for things like child labor and sexual slavery," he said. "It shows a crude indifference to this issue."
Posted 20 March 2004 - 09:04 AM
Willingness To Pay Vs. Ability To Pay
The point at which Hyperinflation reaches its apex (the ball tossed into the air...hanging there momentarily, prior to succumbing to the forces of nature), is that point at which Willingness-To-Pay meets Ability-To-Pay.
This is commonly know as the POINT OF RECOGNITION, and is frequently accompanied by human response such as:
"Holy F*#@in' S#it, Get Me The F#*k OUTTA HERE!!!!"
And then, things get really interesting.
Posted 20 March 2004 - 09:16 AM
Interesting question, can you have a crash during hyperinflation? Maybe. Perhaps the bigger question is how do we realitically define hyperinflation as it relates to today's world. Are zillions of ones and zeros whirling about in financial hyperspace evidence of hyperinflation? Where's the proof? There is certainly no evidence of people anywhere on the planet wheeling about barrows full of cash to pick up a loaf of bread as was the often cited case of post WWI Germany. Ok Machinhead, I see you wildly waving your hand in the back of the room. Yes the CRB is up and commodities have risen significantly in the last year and half or so. But considering the towering inferno of all of the theoretical money that has been created, as evidenced by derivatives, bond markets etc., don't you think the effect is pretty muted considering the relative total capitalization? For example at today's prices, 1/3 of Japan's reserves alone would be enough to buy the total gold production of the planet for the next 5 years. One must also condsider the enormous expansion of hedge funds that has occured over the last 2 years, and the role they are currently playing.
If we are experiencing hyperinflation, it seems to me that it is mostly contained in the financial arena. It is "money" that was created with a key stroke. No effort or any real work is involved. No conversion of raw materials into goods is involved. Just point and click. My guess is this "money" will be destroyed just as efficiently, point and click, poof it's gone. It is only "money" as long as enyone believes it is money. The essence of a confidence game and the ultimate Ponzi scheme.
Which leads me back to the original question. Can we have a crash during hyperinflation? I believe we can given the type of hyperinflation we are seeing. It's more of a question of confidence than of value or the ability of the matrix to generate more ones and zeros. Paradoxically the equities markets are a key player in the confidence level of the sheeple, particularly in the US where 50% of the sheeple are invested. It's almost the chicken and egg question. Which came first? Does the people losing confidence cause the crash or does the crash cause the loss of confidence? Perhaps both?
The deeper we get into this bizzaro world the more I become convinced that it will all end suddenly, seemingly without warning. I say seemingly because I see the evidence around me every day. The credit apps I see are for the most part frightening. Good incomes, no savings and debt as far as the eye can see. The mortgage business having gone so far off the deep end that anyone who can breathe qualifies to allocate 50% of their take home towards an interest only zero down loan. The mindless commercial construction of limitless retail space when tons of it is already idle and going begging. This all evidence of the terrible distortion of the economy that has occurred by the mindless pumping of money. Those distortions need to be corrected and the only vehicle that can correct it is a depression. More and more money will never accomplish that.
I've been in retail for over 30 years and I have seen the consumer stop dead in his tracks. Off like a switch. In 1979 the combination of a mini oil crisis and the spike in interest rates wiped out half the dealers and half the manufacturers in our industry overnight. Poof they were gone. Now we have rising energy costs but interest is near historic lows. Will rates rise? Maybe. Will they go to the extremes of the late 70s? I doubt it. But from these extreme lows even a small rise is a large percentage move, and that in itself might be enough to tip it over. But I think there are larger forces at work. Saturation is a looming issue. 3 years of artificially low rates has pulled forward all of what might have been pent-up demand and simultaneoulsy has left the world deeper in debt on any relative basis than it has ever been. No matter the underlying values of any collateral, the debt remains. Liquidation of the collateral will not satisfy the debt nor is it even possible. Effectively the entire planet is bankrupt.
Posted 20 March 2004 - 09:20 AM
THE NEW SYSTEM FOR UNDERSTANDING WOMEN
For thousands of years, men have tried to understand the "Rules" when
dealing with women. Finally, this merit/demerit guide was created to
help you to understand just how it works. Remember, in the world of
romance, one single rule applies, make the woman happy.
Do something she likes and you get points. Do something she dislikes
and points are deducted. You don't get any points for doing something
Sorry, that's the way the game is played.
Here is a guide to the points system:
SIMPLE DUTIES: You make the bed.....+1
You make the bed, but forget to add the decorative pillows......0
You throw the bedspread over rumpled sheets.....-1
You leave the toilet seat up.....-5
You replace the toilet paper roll when it is empty......0
When the toilet paper roll is barren, you resort to Kleenex....-1
When the Kleenex runs out you use the next bathroom.....-2
You go out to buy her a treat......+5
In the snow .....+8
But return with beer.....-5
And no treat.....-25
You check out a suspicious noise at night.....0
You check out a suspicious noise and it is nothing.....0
You check out a suspicious noise and it is something.....+5
You pummel it with a six iron....+10
It's her cat.....-40
AT THE PARTY:
You stay by her side the entire party.....+1
You stay by her side for a while, then leave to chat with a College drinking buddy.....-2 Named Tiffany....-4
Tiffany is a dancer.....-10
With breast implants.....-18
You remember her birthday.....0
You buy a card and flowers.....0
You take her out to dinner.....0
You take her out to dinner and it's not a sports bar.....+1
Okay, it is a sports bar.....-2
And it's all-you-can-eat night.....-3
It's a sports bar, its all-you-can-eat night, and your face is painted the
colors of your favorite team.....-10
A NIGHT OUT WITH THE BOYS:
Go with a pal.....0
The pal is happily married.....+1
The pal is single.....-7
He drives a Ferrari.....-10
With a personalized license plate (GR8NBED).....-15
A NIGHT OUT WITH HER:
You take her to a movie.....+2
You take her to a movie she likes.....+4
You take her to a movie you hate.....+6
You take her to a movie you like....-2
It's called Death Cop III.....-3
Which features Cyborgs that eat humans.....-9
You lied and said it was a foreign film about orphans.....-15
You develop a noticeable pot belly.....-15
You develop a noticeable pot belly exercise to get rid of it.....+10
You develop a noticeable pot belly and resort to loose jeans and baggy Hawaiian shirts.....-30
You say, "It doesn't matter, you have one too.".....-800
THE BIG QUESTION:
She asks, "Does this dress make me look fat?"
You hesitate in responding.....-10
You reply, "Where?".....-35
You reply, "No, I think it's your ass"......- 100
Any other response.....-20
When she wants to talk about a problem:
You listen, displaying a concerned expression.....0
You listen, for over 30 minutes.....+5
You relate to her problem and share a similar experience......+50
You're mind wanders to sports and you suddenly hear her saying well,
what do you think I should do?".....- 100
You have fallen asleep....-200
IT'S THAT TIME OF THE MONTH:
You don't talk.....-150
You spend time with her......-200
You don't spend time with her.....-500
You seem to be enjoying yourself.....-1000
Game Over - YOU LOSE AS USUAL!!!
(You will notice that the majority of merit points are negative... Doesn't that tell you something?? There is no way to win in this game!!)
Posted 20 March 2004 - 09:29 AM
A paper mill purchased by Georgia-Pacific in 2000 plans the first layoffs in its 85-year history, cutting 200 jobs. The company said workers have until April 23 to sign up for options of severance pay, a layoff with the possibility of callback and a few spots for reassignment at another Green Bay mill.
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