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Weak End B4 The Bell


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#1

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 05:08 PM

I think it's very safe to say that the market has already accounted for the capture or death of whoever they have surrounded in Pakistan. Closing below 10200 on a day when the SOX got crushed, and the Ten Year Yield is melting up threatening the refi funny money with the prospect of higher rates (and inflation)...A Monday selloff would lead to an ugly week for the markets. They were bullhorning the REITS hard all day, so I kept shorting more.

If the Ten Year gives it up on Monday...it's pay day. The talking heads have been saying: "One of these markets is wrong, either the bond market is wrong or the stock market is wrong"...I say they're both wrong and they're both going to reverse course simultaneously.

#2 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 05:16 PM

I think it's very safe to say that the market has already accounted for the capture or death of whoever they have surrounded in Pakistan. Closing below 10200 on a day when the SOX got crushed, and the Ten Year Yield is melting up threatening the refi funny money with the prospect of higher rates (and inflation)...A Monday selloff would lead to an ugly week for the markets. They were bullhorning the REITS hard all day, so I kept shorting more.

If the Ten Year gives it up on Monday...it's pay day. The talking heads have been saying: "One of these markets is wrong, either the bond market is wrong or the stock market is wrong"...I say they're both wrong and they're both going to reverse course simultaneously.

Like I said March 23rd. ;)

With the federal debt, if interest rates rise it means more of the budget goes to interest. Since they will not cut any spending any where else this means the debt goes higher which increases the interest on the debt which increases the debt....well you get the idea.

Pesonally I wouldn't hold one red cent of the debt of a bankrupt country, but then what do I know.

#3 machinehead

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 05:22 PM

I think it's very safe to say that the market has already accounted for the capture or death of whoever they have surrounded in Pakistan.  Closing below 10200 on a day when the SOX got crushed, and the Ten Year Yield is melting up threatening the refi funny money with the prospect of higher rates (and inflation)...A Monday selloff would lead to an ugly week for the markets.  They were bullhorning the REITS hard all day, so I kept shorting more.

If the Ten Year gives it up on Monday...it's pay day.  The talking heads have been saying:  "One of these markets is wrong, either the bond market is wrong or the stock market is wrong"...I say they're both wrong and they're both going to reverse course simultaneously.

Yeah, "pro forma," the capture happened yesterday. :lol:

Crude oil was up 5.2% this week. Soybeans, silver; similar percentages.

Bulls don't get it: YOU CANNOT sustain a bull market when energy prices are running away ... even when a 'friendly Fed' pegs the whole damned yield curve to make it appear there's no inflation.

And as Plunger says, if the yield curve peg breaks, just forget it. Hypertiger will win the market timer of the year award.

Next week I'm looking forward to $40 crude oil, a sub-10K Dow, and a tight-fittin' ... sorry, wrong allusion.

The SOX hit a new low for 2004. The Naz 100 is only 4 points away from it. If all the indices fall through, we really could get a critical mass, portfolio-insurance driven, GMTFO panic. Not a high probability, yet, but rising.

In this kind of hallucinatory Bubble-driven unreality, all it takes is one loud noise to stampede the herd into a wild-eyed, sweat-stained, slobbering frenzy.

Ladies and gentlemen, start your browsers! :)
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#4 Hiding Bear

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 05:32 PM

I think it's very safe to say that the market has already accounted for the capture or death of whoever they have surrounded in Pakistan.  Closing below 10200 on a day when the SOX got crushed, and the Ten Year Yield is melting up threatening the refi funny money with the prospect of higher rates (and inflation)...A Monday selloff would lead to an ugly week for the markets.  They were bullhorning the REITS hard all day, so I kept shorting more.

If the Ten Year gives it up on Monday...it's pay day.  The talking heads have been saying:  "One of these markets is wrong, either the bond market is wrong or the stock market is wrong"...I say they're both wrong and they're both going to reverse course simultaneously.

Yeah, "pro forma," the capture happened yesterday. :lol:

Crude oil was up 5.2% this week. Soybeans, silver; similar percentages.

Bulls don't get it: YOU CANNOT sustain a bull market when energy prices are running away ... even when a 'friendly Fed' pegs the whole damned yield curve to make it appear there's no inflation.

And as Plunger says, if the yield curve peg breaks, just forget it. Hypertiger will win the market timer of the year award.

Next week I'm looking forward to $40 crude oil, a sub-10K Dow, and a tight-fittin' ... sorry, wrong allusion.

The SOX hit a new low for 2004. The Naz 100 is only 4 points away from it. If all the indices fall through, we really could get a critical mass, portfolio-insurance driven, GMTFO panic. Not a high probability, yet, but rising.

In this kind of hallucinatory Bubble-driven unreality, all it takes is one loud noise to stampede the herd into a wild-eyed, sweat-stained, slobbering frenzy.

Ladies and gentlemen, start your browsers! :)

It looks like we are heading for deflation in the stock/bond markets and inflation in the commodities markets. Unlike in the past, when the Fed moved to curb inflation through higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy, they will fail to stop either commodity prices from rising or long-term interest rates from going up. The sudden halt in the expansion of the monetary base by the Fed is, as Doc says, a decided tightening policy.

Inlfation is coming from the rapid expansion of the monetary base in Japan and China. There is not much the Fed can do about it. China's money system is essentially out of control of even their central planners. Their most effective weapon against monetary inflation is just to shut the system down, but they are riding the tiger here and can't jump off. Japan has institutionalized its anti-deflation currency intervention system, which can be slowed down but not stopped without triggering a $ collapse.



Ride The Tiger
by the Jefferson Starship

I want to ride the tiger
I want to ride the tiger
It will be black and white in the dead of night
Eyes flashing in the clear moonlight
I want to ride the tiger.

It's like a tear in the hands of a western man
Tell you about salt, carbon and water
But a tear to a chinese man
He'll tell you about sadness and sorrow or the love of a man and
a woman.

I want to ride the tiger
I want to sail through the risin' sun for you and you
We got something to learn from the other side
Something to give, we got nothing to hide
I want to ride the tiger.

Black wants out of the streets
Yellow wants the country
Red wants the country back
And white wants out of this world
Sing - sing to the sky
I want to ride the tiger
I want to ride the tiger.

Look to the summer of seventy-five
All the world is gonna come alive
Do you want to ride the tiger?

It's like a tear in the hands of a western man
Tell you about salt, carbon and water
But a tear to an oriental man
He'll tell you about sadness and sorrow or the love of a man and
a woman.

#5 Hypertiger

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 06:52 PM

The system that employs the following equation...

Posted Image

Is at the mercy of the exponents...That is what the mathmatical representation of the current self delusion looks like...

Raising rates allows a strengthening of deflationary potential, lowering rates allows a strengthening of inflationary potential...

Posted Image

You can see it in this chart which measures yearly change from the previous year...

Rates have been basically dropping for 40+ years...Holding rates does not mean they are not rising...Inflationary potential is constantly weakening...Deflationary potential is constantly strengthening...

The blue that is currently shooting straight up is where we currently are...Since the switch to a debt backed system 45+ years ago our dependance on debt inflation has grown massively...

To continue this...rates must keep dropping when debt inflationary potential weakens enough to allow debt deflationary potential to become dominant...

Unfortunatly Interest rates can not be dropped past zero...and since debt inflationary potential is constantly weakening holding rates is not an option...
Raising rates will allow the strengthening of debt deflationary potential so that is not an option either...

You inflationists either figure out how to drop rates past zero into negative rates or you will have to accept the fact that after 45+ years the debt inflationary self delusional bubble that you depend upon to support your existance will violently implode...very soon...

The blue line must go up forever...Due to the construction of the system and the basic mechanics of the Universe...that is an impossibility...

Try and input zero or negative rates into the compound interest equation...

It is debt deflationary and rising rates are debt deflationary...

It is called a liquidity trap...and it's climax is a credit crunch or hyperdeflationary implosion of the debt supply which is what the money supply is 100% composed of...

At some point we will go down keep going and going...It will be unstoppable...

We will go down past what you will be able to stomach or comprehend...and that will just be the beginning...we will plunge to depths far beyond that...far beyond what any living person has seen in their life...and possibly further than any such plunge in the history of fractional reserve banking...

That is what the future holds...

You won't be able to hold rates to strengthen debt inflationary potential...
You won't be able to raise rates to strengthen debt inflationary potential...
You won't be able to lower rates to strengthen debt inflationary potential...

We are all as dependant on debt inflation to support the self delusion we exist in as we are on food and water...without constant debt inflation civilization as it currently functions will cease to function...

Checkmate...

One reason I'm done the crusade at the end of the month...It is already over...It was over decades ago...It was over the second we were all born...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#6 brian4

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 07:10 PM

Today-was a real Slobberknocker-today the engine room on Fall Street BLEW UP-the Q's along with everything else closed at the lows and are down another 9 ticks in the very thin after market. A lot of dyed in the wool Bullz tonite have second thoughts about the recovery and second thoughts is all it takes to derail the train. ;)

#7 Hiding Bear

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 07:40 PM

Here is something else for bullz - and every one else - to think about:

WORLDWIDE CAUTION
March 19, 2004

This supersedes the Worldwide Caution dated January 9, 2004 . It is being issued to remind U.S. citizens of the continuing threat of terrorist attacks. This Worldwide Caution expires on September 19, 2004 .

The U.S. Government remains deeply concerned about the security of U.S. citizens overseas. U.S. citizens are cautioned to maintain a high level of vigilance, to remain alert and to take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness. We are seeing indications that Al-Qaida continues to prepare to strike U.S. interests abroad.

Al-Qaida and its associated organizations have most recently struck in the Middle East and in Europe but other geographic locations could also be venues for attacks. Future Al-Qaida attacks could possibly involve non-conventional weapons such as chemical or biological agents as well as conventional weapons of terror. We also cannot rule out that Al-Qaida will attempt a catastrophic attack within the U.S.


State Department Warning

#8 brian4

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 07:58 PM

LLD- Did you miss all the fireworks?? or barrel back in??

#9 brian4

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 08:23 PM

link Yes-they really are that damn STUPID! :blink:

#10

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 08:29 PM

link Yes-they really are that damn STUPID! :blink:

HOLY CRAP!

How can the entire Matrix operate assuming that the whistle blowers won't eventually come forward with the truth on ALL of the lies that have been perpetuated?

Obviously we've all known the truth, but when the Sheelpe see this one on Sunday night, they are going to be totally pissed off.

It is sooooooo good to be TITS SHORT!!!

#11 machinehead

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 08:37 PM

It gets worse --

But the insurgents have a plan of their own, which they have revealed to Asia Times Online. Conceived by foreign resistance fighters of Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Arab origin, it is a classic guerrilla stratagem that involves enmeshing the mighty military forces of the United States and its allies in numerous local conflicts, diverting them from their real goal and dissipating their strength.


Shawal quagmire
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#12 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 08:41 PM

LLD- Did you miss all the fireworks?? or barrel back in??

B4

I was never out :D :D :D :D :D :D

I left early with stops that were nice and loose.
Was around for the last 25 minutes and sold some more.
It was the best week I have ever had due to the silver and
gold run. My employer is facing liquidation next week so this all comes
at a most opportune time.

Again Brian

Great calls today and for the week.

Cheers
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#13 machinehead

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 08:49 PM

If Clarkes's book creates a stink, John Pilger's evidence may bring the walls tumbing down:

AUSTRALIAN investigative journalist John Pilger says he has evidence the war against Iraq was based on a lie that could cost George W. Bush and Tony Blair their jobs and bring Prime Minister John Howard down with them.
 
A television report by Pilger aired on British screens overnight said US Secretary of State Colin Powell and National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice confirmed in early 2001 that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein had been disarmed and was no threat.
 
But after the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington on September 11 that year, Pilger claimed Rice said the US "must move to take advantage of these new opportunities" to attack Iraq and claim control of its oil.


Turds on the run

Pilger uncovered video footage of Powell in Cairo on February 24, 2001 saying, "He (Saddam Hussein) has not developed any significant capability with respect to weapons of mass destruction. He is unable to project conventional power against his neighbours."
 
Two months later, Rice reportedly said, "We are able to keep his arms from him. His military forces have not been rebuilt."


Uh-OH! No convenient 17-1/2-minute gap in the tape this time! The liars are caught flat-footed with their pants on fire! Already aired on Britain's ITV network.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#14 Hiding Bear

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 08:53 PM

It gets worse --

But the insurgents have a plan of their own, which they have revealed to Asia Times Online. Conceived by foreign resistance fighters of Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Arab origin, it is a classic guerrilla stratagem that involves enmeshing the mighty military forces of the United States and its allies in numerous local conflicts, diverting them from their real goal and dissipating their strength.


Shawal quagmire

And worse -

Bin Laden's right-hand man slips net

A BULLETPROOF LandCruiser at high speed bursting out of a tribal compound in Pakistan's South Waziristan region was just the latest infuriating setback in the US's quest to bring down the top of the al-Qa'ida tree.

The car, followed by two armoured vehicles and a phalanx of heavily armed militants able to wipe out dozens of crack troops sent to blast the terrorists from their nest, is believed to have contained Ayman al-Zawahiri, right-hand man to Osama bin Laden.

After mounting speculation that US and Pakistani forces ranged on either side of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border were about to pounce on al-Qa'ida's key planner, a senior Taliban spokesman yesterday made the claim Washington least wanted to hear - that both Zawahiri and bin Laden were safe in Afghanistan.

"He may have slipped the net," the official said.




Bin Laden's right-hand man slips net

#15 Hypertiger

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Posted 19 March 2004 - 09:00 PM

link  Yes-they really are that damn STUPID! :blink:

HOLY CRAP!

How can the entire Matrix operate assuming that the whistle blowers won't eventually come forward with the truth on ALL of the lies that have been perpetuated?

Obviously we've all known the truth, but when the Sheelpe see this one on Sunday night, they are going to be totally pissed off.

It is sooooooo good to be TITS SHORT!!!

It is all by design...First you dangle the carrot of Golden Opportunity in front of the neo cons... They follow and do whatever it takes to capitalize on the Golden Opportunity...when their usefullness is over... you take the carrot away...

Leave them high and dry...to take the fall...

That is the most effective form of control...You make everyone religiously believe in something then sledgehammer them...

While the mob is busy hacking the patsies to pieces...you dangle the next carrot of Golden Opportunity in front of the next future patsies...

All those neo con types are just useful lower forms of life whose usefullness is almost run out...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...





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