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#16 The End

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 12:00 AM

The End I would bet the farm from the long side 960-980 as long as volume diminishes as we approach those levels.

Yepper. Me too.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#17 brian4

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 12:08 AM

Sleddy-thanks for that -two differing views one from a kid treated well one from a guy not. I tend to agree with Einstein on this, when you keep people in cages, shackled and without trial ( and we have all seen the pictures) you create an ugly picture for the world. Try them openly, hang them, imprison them etc. but don't present an image to the world that we are as bad as they. If this guy was as BAD as the rest they would not have let him go and his story would not have been told-right or wrong??? ;)

#18 3Martinis

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 01:44 AM

Mystery Solved !!!

Posted Image



Gut (the only thing I actually know) tells me to start warming up the synapses for energy positions. Definitly not yet ........ but something is stirring; it's saying "be ready brah"..... It'll tell me when. ( Fade it :) )

( Same gut told me to "Git Gold You Idjit !!" a couple odd years back though :) )

The market might be stable or strong through early April as I have a shwack of options vesting there ...... and I have horseshoes up my ass. I'm actually not kidding. :lol: Never have such minor piques of curiousity at fortuitous moments been so one-sidedly rewarded at peculiar times as during half of my particular life... and not just related to finances.

But then again the gut says we're fornicated. Guts over horseshoes, I'll make the sale the second they're available :ph34r:

B4.... Sanderson and Rucinsky are making Burke look like a freakin genius yah? ;)

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 02:43 AM

Driving back from the airport tonite, I saw some guys roofing a model home by the freeway, AT NIGHT! Mebbe this would be "normal" behavior during a "Boom" but what "boom" ask I? :unsure:

Jobless white-collar workers fight to get to their feet

More than 75 percent of the people searching for work for 15 weeks or more in Harris and the surrounding 12 counties are white-collar workers in managerial, technical and professional occupations.

In January, 15,662 residents in Harris and 12 surrounding counties were out of work 15 weeks or more, according to the most recent data from the Texas Workforce Commission. And of that total, 12,054 describe themselves as managers or professionals.

Nationally it's the same story. The number of people with college degrees who have been out of work for at least six months grew by 299 percent to 369,115 at the end of 2003, according to the U.S. Department of Labor's Economic Policy Institute.

College graduates make up 15.3 percent of the unemployed but they represent 19.1 percent of the long-term unemployed, according to the institute.



#20 stained jeans

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 04:10 AM

EVERYONE in POWER does it, some more discretly than others, the USA is not and has never been pure in this respect, take it from an old NAM vet.

NE

NE,

I'm guessing I'm just a handful of years younger than you yet it took me 30 years to figure out what you guys who served in Nam were trying to tell us way back then. 9/11 makes so much more sense when you understand the facts. <_<

#21 stained jeans

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 04:15 AM

There is a link over at drudge to a series of articles in the london daily Mirror- "My time at Camp X-Ray". Warning-a very disturbing series of articles. I hold no brief for terrorists-hang the bad ones, incarcerate the others-but beatings and torture?? What has always set US apart from THEM is our humanity-when we lose that-we lose everything. Pls have a read and post what you think-when you finish the first article click on the one about "torture".

Bri,

Thanks for bringing this to everyone's attention. This is just the tip of the iceberg I'm afraid. Read "Blowback" and "Sorrows of Empire" by Chalmers Johnson for a better understanding of what our government has done in our name for decades. :(

#22 HiHat

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 07:06 AM

No Einstein.....excerpt on IMF....

Fears at the BIS and IMF
The Bank for International Settlements' Quarterly Review issued in March, also pointed to a rising number of "factors of systemic risk" in the financial system, including the rush of banks and investors worldwide into high-risk markets, and a 26% increase in just the past year in the turnover of financial derivatives contracts at the official derivatives exchanges.

The IMF itself was "hit like a bombshell" by the abrupt resignation of its Managing Director, Horst Köhler, on March 4, less than a week before the deadline at which an Argentine default to the Fund was feared. The day after Köhler jumped ship, the IMF website put up a press release reporting on a Feb. 25 meeting of the Fund's directors, to discuss "financial risk" to the institution, and the need to bolster "precautionary balances" against the "risk of an income shortfall." Specifically, the directors "stressed that sound risk management requires the Fund to be prepared for the possibility of payments disruptions, which could arise from the increase and concentration of its outstanding credit."

The greatest credit risk to the IMF, its release said, "is mainly from large arrangements with middle-income countries and the Fund." Conveying urgency, if not panic, the directors agreed that the "adequacy of the level of precautionary balances, and the pace of their accumulation, as well as the application of the burden-sharing mechanism, will need to be kept under close review."

Argentina's Pagina 12 newspaper put this a good deal more plainly in its March 7 coverage, "Who Will Save the Fund?" Argentina and Brazil alone account for 50% of the IMF's loans outstanding. Add Turkey, and three IMF debtors—all which have been suffering foreign-debt crises—account for 72% of its assets. "If the Fund were a private bank," Pagina 12 stated irrefutably, "the central bank of any country would have already suspended it."

#23 machinehead

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 08:34 AM

Argentina's Pagina 12 newspaper put this a good deal more plainly in its March 7 coverage, "Who Will Save the Fund?" Argentina and Brazil alone account for 50% of the IMF's loans outstanding. Add Turkey, and three IMF debtors—all which have been suffering foreign-debt crises—account for 72% of its assets. "If the Fund were a private bank," Pagina 12 stated irrefutably, "the central bank of any country would have already suspended it."

Just so. The IMF, like the GSEs, stays afloat because of presumed govt. guarantees. When it was formed, subcribing govts made 25% of their capital contribution in cash, and 75% in the form of a credit line to the IMF (if I recall correctly). Presumably those credit lines are still valid.

Like any statist institution, the IMF has lent not based on the prospect of return, but for political reasons. Turkey is being shored up because of its position in NATO, perhaps even as an example to the Islamic world saying "you too can enjoy this level of material success if you collaborate with the West."

Turkey runs a high double-digit inflation rate, which is patent evidence of indiscipline, runaway credit creation, and fundamental 'bad character' to use an old-fashioned bankster term. The inflation rate alone should have disqualified Turkey from borrowing.

It must never be forgotten that the IMF was established to make balance of payments loans in a world of fixed exchange rates. When exchange rates floated in 1973, the IMF's mission disappeared. With floating rates, payment deficits are resolved by currency depreciation, not by defending the exchange rate.

It is scandalous that the IMF bureaucracy was allowed to continue operations when its mission had ended. (NATO is doing the same, by the way.) Resolute ridicule, criticism, and rejection of this absurd institution and all who participate in it is a form of public service. It speaks poorly of Germany that it would draft an IMF clown to serve as its president.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

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#24 The End

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 08:38 AM

M.H,

How high do you think inflation and rates eventually get to in the U.S.?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 08:54 AM

I'll answer for MH. 12 Kazillion percent. :lol:

Just for the record MH. In spite of everything (soaring NG, and insurance up about 10%) the daily cost of operating my business has actually fallen about 2% over the last year without any cost-cutting. Oh but you're right it's coming. My lead manufacturer is telling me to expect an increase in 2005 product - a scary 1-1.5%. My secondary manufacturer already raised their price - .5%. It won't hit the retail. It will be snuffed and over before it can.

#26 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 09:08 AM

Lock Limit Down >>

Never underestimate the power of the matrix.
The close on the Naz was breathtaking, sprinting 9 points in 15 minutes for a total of 41. Just like the late 90s.
The Russel up 2.5% and over .5% in the last 15 minutes
Fear is still nowhere to be found. The multiple +1000 ticks today after 600 points of decline was very impressive. Going to study the charts long and hard this weekend and may just follow Yobob.


4 years of running up and down the sidewalk carrying "the end is near" signs and finally I get my first follower. :lol: Geeze, I almost feel like stirring up some Kool-aid. :lol:

Seriously, follow what? I haven't done anything other than jump into the heavy stuff with both feet 3.5 years ago, sit back and watch the show. The paper and digital peddlers haven't made a dime off of me in transaction fees and the goobermint hasn't had anything to tax. :cry:

Why? My business offers all the day trading excitement I need and frankly the returns are more predictable. The returns are fantastic - if we ignore overhead. Yes it's true my financials are 100% pro forma! :lol:

#27

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 09:39 AM

M.H,

How high do you think inflation and rates eventually get to in the U.S.?

A CPA buddy of mine with a big brain actually has a sister who works for the IMF. He's a smart and conservative guy, and usually bullish - though I've managed to get him to stand aside in the market. We speak by phone about the market every day.

He said that he and another smart buddy spent a few intellectual hours going over all aspects of the economy to see what their combined conclusion was with respect to the inflation / deflation debate...and he actually said he sees us heading into deflation...which seemed to surprise even him. The blinders are coming off one at a time.

My view is that we are at or near stagflation now, as the cost to create a product is rising at a rate so fast, they refuse to release the PPI, while the ability to pass those cost increases through to the consumer is nonexistent...selling autos at a loss being the most glaring example.

Manufacturing, construction, etc. in a boom uses a lot of energy as things hum along looking to keep pace with a projected (rosy) growth curve and demand - a speculator's paradise. The skyline of Fort Lauderdale is full of cranes erecting new sky scrapers and condo complexes (a buddy of mine is erecting several). Meanwhile, office vacancies are on the increase as companies either go out of business or reduce head count.

With the U.S. Government lying about this faux recovery here amid the engine of global growth, the world has been hoarding raw materials in anticipation of a healthy and confident American Consumer. The world has been sold a bill of goods. The engine of global growth, American Consumerism, is broken.

When lenders are focusing all of their efforts (with the backing of the government) on the least creditworthy individuals in society...encouraging the stupidest among us to enter into legally binding contracts to destroy their precarious lives by purchasing real estate with no money down on interest-only loans at the peak of the biggest real estate bubble on earth, the desperation of the situation becomes crystal clear.

When the stock market collapses, the "Wealth Effect" that fuels foolish purchasing decisions goes away with it. Why is the Dallas real estate market in decline? Why are inventories of existing homes building, and why is their time on the market increasing? These new low mortgage rates will serve to cause the final blow-off and set the stage for the implosion...which will come in a matter of months, not years. Foreign inflows into bonds will be the tell.

Greed can turn to fear on a dime. The homebuilders, lenders and REITs are setting the stage for a colossal shorting opportunity. Without the speculative frenzy, the inflationary fuel of rising home prices will abate. The cost of building a home today has got to be 20% higher than it was just a year ago. The REITs and builders have bought up raw land on a massive scale. When the market for raw land and homes flattens out and the point of recognition hits, a glut of inventory will hit the market and prices will begin to plummet as investor sentiment turns from "return on investment" to "return OF investment" - just like any market - only the carrying costs and the marketing/selling costs of these illiquid assets will result in massive losses.

The biggest growth business in this country is going to be auctions, as speculators are forced to simply walk away from buildings, homes, raw land and cars that were purchased on a mindset of greed. Fear changes everything. As demand abates and fear increases, willingness-to-pay decreases. Japan is the example we will follow. Interest rates that are within our governments control will not rise for a decade or more. Credit card companies will be eating bad debt like candy, as people simply decide to disappear into the ooze of a C.O.D. society, where barter is a currency and shopping is merely a memory.

Stagflation is taking hold now, and deflation will be right around the corner.

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 10:11 AM

Hmmm...let's see...if Al-Qaeda is deemed the responsible for the bombing in Spain, the U.S. stock market tanks and the Spanish majority party would be overturned. Therefore, despite Al-Qaeda's claim of responsibility for the attack, a cover story must be manufactured and maintained to keep the plates spinning.

Damn, it's got to be awfully frustrating to have pulled off a well executed crime and not get any credit for it! Sometimes jets simply fall out of the sky and trains simply spontaneously combust...get used to it.


Spain Maintains ETA Is Main Bomb Suspect a Day Before Elections

March 13 (Bloomberg) -- The Spanish government is sticking to its position that the Basque terrorist group ETA is behind the Madrid bombings that killed 200 people on Thursday, a stance that may help the ruling Popular Party in tomorrow's general elections.

Interior Minister Angel Acebes went on national television last night to say the government believed ETA carried out the attacks on four commuter trains, even though the type of explosives that caused the blast hasn't been used by the group in more than a decade. At about the same time Acebes spoke, ETA issued a denial to Basque newspaper Gara.

The Popular Party's success in curtailing ETA attacks under retiring Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar has contributed to its lead in opinion polls. Signs the attack may have been the work of a group linked to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network in revenge for Aznar's support for the U.S.-led war in Iraq was played down by Acebes, who called the evidence ``unreliable.''

``If ETA responsibility is confirmed, this would allow the PP to retain its absolute majority'' in parliament, said Richard Gillespie, a professor at the University of Liverpool. ``If the evidence pointed to an Islamic response to Spanish alignment with the U.S. in Iraq, or if voters decided that the government had been manipulating the evidence in order to point to ETA, this would help the opposition.''

http://quote.bloombe...=top_world_news

#29

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 10:20 AM

Whistle Blowers...they'll be coming out of the woodwork all around the world. What are you going to do Al, kill everyone with knowledge of the PPI numbers and other scams? God forbid you ever fire one or piss them off.

NAB purges staff over forex loss


Saturday, March 13, 2004 Posted: 0340 GMT (1140 HKT)
National Australia Bank Limited
Frank Cicutto
Australia

SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- Australia's biggest bank, National Australia Bank, has vowed to "weed out cultural misfits" as it reacts to a currency trading scandal that lost it Aust $360 million ($270 million).

The bank sacked four currency options traders Friday, along with the head of its foreign exchange markets division. Three senior managers were also asked to resign.

The bank's former CEO, Frank Cicutto, and chairman Charles Allen both resigned in February when the extent of the breaches became clear.

Cicutto was already under pressure over a failed share-buying raid on insurer and funds manager AMP in August last year, and the bank's losses in 2001-02 stemming from its HomeSide investment in the United States.

The $360 million in trading losses was revealed in January only after whistleblowers told senior management at the bank.

http://edition.cnn.c.../australia.nab/

#30 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 13 March 2004 - 10:24 AM

M.H,

How high do you think inflation and rates eventually get to in the U.S.?

A CPA buddy of mine with a big brain actually has a sister who works for the IMF. He's a smart and conservative guy, and usually bullish - though I've managed to get him to stand aside in the market. We speak by phone about the market every day.

He said that he and another smart buddy spent a few intellectual hours going over all aspects of the economy to see what their combined conclusion was with respect to the inflation / deflation debate...and he actually said he sees us heading into deflation...which seemed to surprise even him. The blinders are coming off one at a time.

My view is that we are at or near stagflation now, as the cost to create a product is rising at a rate so fast, they refuse to release the PPI, while the ability to pass those cost increases through to the consumer is nonexistent...selling autos at a loss being the most glaring example.

Manufacturing, construction, etc. in a boom uses a lot of energy as things hum along looking to keep pace with a projected (rosy) growth curve and demand - a speculator's paradise. The skyline of Fort Lauderdale is full of cranes erecting new sky scrapers and condo complexes (a buddy of mine is erecting several). Meanwhile, office vacancies are on the increase as companies either go out of business or reduce head count.

With the U.S. Government lying about this faux recovery here amid the engine of global growth, the world has been hoarding raw materials in anticipation of a healthy and confident American Consumer. The world has been sold a bill of goods. The engine of global growth, American Consumerism, is broken.

When lenders are focusing all of their efforts (with the backing of the government) on the least creditworthy individuals in society...encouraging the stupidest among us to enter into legally binding contracts to destroy their precarious lives by purchasing real estate with no money down on interest-only loans at the peak of the biggest real estate bubble on earth, the desperation of the situation becomes crystal clear.

When the stock market collapses, the "Wealth Effect" that fuels foolish purchasing decisions goes away with it. Why is the Dallas real estate market in decline? Why are inventories of existing homes building, and why is their time on the market increasing? These new low mortgage rates will serve to cause the final blow-off and set the stage for the implosion...which will come in a matter of months, not years. Foreign inflows into bonds will be the tell.

Greed can turn to fear on a dime. The homebuilders, lenders and REITs are setting the stage for a colossal shorting opportunity. Without the speculative frenzy, the inflationary fuel of rising home prices will abate. The cost of building a home today has got to be 20% higher than it was just a year ago. The REITs and builders have bought up raw land on a massive scale. When the market for raw land and homes flattens out and the point of recognition hits, a glut of inventory will hit the market and prices will begin to plummet as investor sentiment turns from "return on investment" to "return OF investment" - just like any market - only the carrying costs and the marketing/selling costs of these illiquid assets will result in massive losses.

The biggest growth business in this country is going to be auctions, as speculators are forced to simply walk away from buildings, homes, raw land and cars that were purchased on a mindset of greed. Fear changes everything. As demand abates and fear increases, willingness-to-pay decreases. Japan is the example we will follow. Interest rates that are within our governments control will not rise for a decade or more. Credit card companies will be eating bad debt like candy, as people simply decide to disappear into the ooze of a C.O.D. society, where barter is a currency and shopping is merely a memory.

Stagflation is taking hold now, and deflation will be right around the corner.

Perfecto!

The only real "flation" at the consumer level (beyond asset) is energy and insurance. Both of those have very real limitations. Send gasoline to $3 a gallon and watch consumption decline. energy is funny stuff. It is VERY demand sensitive. A tiny pecentage move away from balance creates huge price swings. Undersupply can very quickly become over supply and collapse a price. California in 2000 was one such example. Secondarily energy costs can quickly affect the affordability of things like homes. Anybody with a few functioning brain cells has to consider not only the monthly payment (PITI) but with most being acutely aware of the recent hit on NG prices, they have to be thinking how much is it going to cost to heat and cool this monster.

Health insurance is already suffering the "lay-off" effect as the newly unemployed cannot afford it if it has to come out of their pocket. Health insurance pools are shrinking, meaning fewer insured to divide the "costs" pressuring rises in premiums leading to fewer insured. It's not hard to see where that leads in a few years, a major insurance crisis as carriers go under. Already the medical system is suffering from the declines in insured and they really can't raise prices at this point. The medical system in this country went through major expansions in the 90's anticipating the aging boomers. What they didn't foresee was the failing finances of those boomers.

Here's an example that has become all too common for me. A couple in their early 60s wanted to finance an inexpensive RV, about $12,000. The payment would have been about $115 per mo at 6.5% for 12 years . (Yeah that scares the helll of out of me financing this toy stuff for that long, but what he hell, I'm non-recourse) Combined incomes of about $60K - plenty to live comfortably in this area. Their credit app didn't look too bad on the surface, but it displayed some very disturbing clues. They owed $87,000 on a house "they" think is worth $93,000. They owed $23,000 ofn a truck "they think is worth $30,000. They owed $20,000 on a 2 year old car they think is worth $25,000. The credit report was a disaster, credit card debt up the wazoo, many late pays, etc. Nobody would touch them with a 10' pole. So here they are , near retriement age, in debt up to their ass, no savings, and out of credit.





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