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#16

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:37 PM

Jay Taylor now on the Tom O-Brien show talking about excessive debt and market valuations. Says the day of reckoning is coming closer and closer. Things aren't as good as the establishment is painting them. Jay says that the government is fudging the numbers and we do have tons inflation now -- however since debt is growing faster, we are headed for a deflationary crash and a 10 yr bear market.

#17 The brown one

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:40 PM

Everyone remembers the guys in high school who couldn't handle the pressure, so they resorted to smoking weed.

At first, it was "occasional", primarily to participate in the local party scene.

But later, low self esteem necessitated even higher doses, since regular joint smoking was considered "cool", and the constant stream of dope into the brain helped take the edge off of the academic strains, the peer pressures, constant questioning by the parents as to "what are you going to do with your life", etc. etc.

Over time, it took increasingly higher amounts to ease the pain. And as the self esteem got even lower, these "burnouts" would have to chain smoke themselves into oblivion in order to "outrun" the reality that they were sinking further into a state of uselessness, unease, into the world of a Permanent Slacker.

At the end of my senior year, some of these guys would walk around like zombies, eyes permanently red, eyelids half closed, speech slurred, and generally slackjawed and unmotivated.  Brains were completely fried.

Vry nice summary. Today is still the same. I would guess that at least 50% of the students at my university smoke pot like in a manner which would even cheech and chong make proud. Problem is they find that cool. But evryone i know who "smokes" since several years every day, some of them more than once a day, all those guys are somewhat nuts, laughing wierd, laughing when there is nothing to laugh, going with their clothes to bed, spending half of their money every month jsut for the stuff, having no motivation and so on.

Not that i didnt smoke the pot from time to time, but that is diferent when someone smokes every day. It is just the same like when you drink every day 3 liters of beer.

But when you tell someone taking dope every day is no good for ya system, then they look at you like at a conservative nucklehead.

Funny you should mention this subject,but there was just now a prog on NederTV about the correlation between heavy weed smoking in youth and the incidence of schizophrenia in later years! Just thought I'd mention it as I'm in "coffee shop"country. B)

#18 Old Habits

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:48 PM

[quote name='wndysrf' date='Mar 12 2004, 05:24 PM']Too much fear, way too fast.

On the next drop, we need to see the dip buyers coming in with a vengeance.

Lower lows on the indexes, but lower highs on the VXO.

That's why the first "clothesline drop" usually doesn't continue.

Need to get the Dippers emboldened to double down on their bets the next time we roll over.[/quote]
[QUOTE]

Agree, I think someone here mentioned we might spike back up to 1140 on S & P before resuming the downtrend.
It's hard for me to see another long leg up without the $ drifting lower. Maybe that's why the pm's sort of held their own today?
Put/call ratio's been over 1 almost all week.

Fed meeting Tuesday, wonder if it will ignite a selloff in the $?

#19 the east is red

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:52 PM

Jay Taylor now on the Tom O-Brien show talking about excessive debt and market valuations. Says the day of reckoning is coming closer and closer. Things aren't as good as the establishment is painting them. Jay says that the government is fudging the numbers and we do have tons inflation now -- however since debt is growing faster, we are headed for a deflationary crash and a 10 yr bear market.

I vote for the worst of both worlds: stag-flation.

Speaking of price deflation and, cough, inflation.

Air Asia is a new low cost "fun-centred" carrier based in KL, Malaysia.

Their motto is

"There's a new girl in town.
She's twice the fun and half the price.”

"There's a new girl in town . . ."

Mr. wndysrf, I think this airline was started with you in mind:

Air Asia

#20 machinehead

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 07:06 PM

"Trunk Vibration Master Receivables Woofer Trust, Unit IV"

:lol: :lol: :lol:

... maybe he's not joking ... :ph34r:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

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- our jickiss

#21 mjkst27

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 07:15 PM

"Trunk Vibration Master Receivables Woofer Trust, Unit IV"

:lol: :lol: :lol:

... maybe he's not joking ... :ph34r:

The Boomin' System
by LL Cool J

[Marley Marl:]
Just kick a little something for them cars that be bumpin

Yeah aight
But we need a beat that they can front to
Oh, that'll work
Be funky
You know what I'm sayin?

(Cars ride by with the boomin systems)
(Cars ride by)

Funky
For all the cars out there
And all the brothers
That like to front in their rides
Check it out

You know it's funky, funky, funky cos you heard it from hear-say
A jam that you love that don't be gettin no airplay
Strictly for frontin when you're ridin around
12 o'clock at night with your windows down
Headlights breakin cos your batteries drain
Armor all on your tires and a big gold chain
Parkin outside of all the hip-hop spots
Push the E-Q and play connect the dots
Leanin to the side, people everywhere
The trunk full of amps, there ain't no room for a spare
Big beats bumpin with the bass in back
All the sophisticated suckers catch a heart attack
Cos they don't understand why I act this way
Pumpin up the funky beat until the break of day
It's because I want attention when i'm ridin by
And the girls be on my jock cos my system's fly

Girlies wanna ride with a brother like me
Cos they be hear me gettin funky frequently
They tell me don't drink and drive, I say what is this
Mind your business
Now pass it around
Laid back, hypnotized by the funky sound
People in the street see me bobbin my head
While I'm checkin out the rapper and the rhyme that he said
I'm frontin, and I don't care if you know
The backseat of my car is like a disco show
You would think I was a good friend of Al Capone
Crazy air freshener, who needs cologne
Bottom to the bottom to the top to the top
Cruise - it's 3 o'clock
The girlies, they smile, they see me comin
I'm steady hummin, I got the Funky Drummer drummin
My trunk be shakin, vibratin and rattlin
Pumpin so loud, all the shorties be battlin
A right-hand man's here without the swing
Every chance I get I'm showin off my rings
I can keep it up until the break of dawn
Cos I'm frontin in my ride and my word is bond

Sun roof open, so I can feel the wind blow
I don't give a damn if it cracks my back window
C to the o to the o to the l to the i to the n
To the f to the r to the o to the n to the t to the i to the n
That means I'm chillin
Like Spoonie Gee said, my seats are soft like a bed
They recline way back, so I can get real cosy
I got the gangster tapes in the place
Like a basehead would say: I want bass
I want a hit, I want a dose
You're rollin up smilin, but you can't come close
Cos my system is pumpin loud
Like Rakim said: I wanna move the crowd
I warm it up with Kane, fight the power with PE
Tell the cops: you gots to chill with EPMD
This is something devastatin that'll break your trunk
And remember, Uncle L is like the future of the funk

You know what i'm sayin
Word
So next time you're in your ride pumpin it up
Just remember
It's Cool

Peace

#22 machinehead

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 07:51 PM

All travellers to the US - even those from visa-waiver countries - could soon be required to have their fingerprints and photographs taken on arrival under a big expansion of border security designed to keep terrorists out of the US.

But the move has raised serious concerns in Europe, and could  lead to tit-for-tat measures being introduced at EU airports for American travellers.


Nobody Here But Us Sheeple
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#23

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 08:08 PM

5:18 Contractors ask U.S. for relief on steel shortages

I guess these guys didn't get the "There Is No Inflation" memo......

You mean the PPI Memo?

Hey Doc...since the government is never again going to release the PPI, and since you have calculated what it would have been - why not just craft a press release and send it out to the financial universe as the ESTIMATED PPI For January and February - along with the criteria used to estimate it.

Put it out there and force them to deny it.

#24 Jimi

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 08:08 PM

Everyone remembers the guys in high school who couldn't handle the pressure, so they resorted to smoking weed.

At first, it was "occasional", primarily to participate in the local party scene.

But later, low self esteem necessitated even higher doses, since regular joint smoking was considered "cool", and the constant stream of dope into the brain helped take the edge off of the academic strains, the peer pressures, constant questioning by the parents as to "what are you going to do with your life", etc. etc.

Over time, it took increasingly higher amounts to ease the pain. And as the self esteem got even lower, these "burnouts" would have to chain smoke themselves into oblivion in order to "outrun" the reality that they were sinking further into a state of uselessness, unease, into the world of a Permanent Slacker.

At the end of my senior year, some of these guys would walk around like zombies, eyes permanently red, eyelids half closed, speech slurred, and generally slackjawed and unmotivated.  Brains were completely fried.

Vry nice summary. Today is still the same. I would guess that at least 50% of the students at my university smoke pot like in a manner which would even cheech and chong make proud. Problem is they find that cool. But evryone i know who "smokes" since several years every day, some of them more than once a day, all those guys are somewhat nuts, laughing wierd, laughing when there is nothing to laugh, going with their clothes to bed, spending half of their money every month jsut for the stuff, having no motivation and so on.

Not that i didnt smoke the pot from time to time, but that is diferent when someone smokes every day. It is just the same like when you drink every day 3 liters of beer.

But when you tell someone taking dope every day is no good for ya system, then they look at you like at a conservative nucklehead.

:mellow: :huh:

Umm....

:mellow: :mellow:

Uhhh....

:mellow: :mellow:

What was the question? Or did I ask it?

:huh: :huh:
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
"Ferdy-bee-bee-dee-ferbs."
Subscribe & Earn Karma Miles with Every Visit!
Rule #5 Professional Exemption.
Blind Follower, Just Think Positive Hyperinflation, I Get Paid 500 Quadrillion Dollars/Hour at 1000% Interest/Hour Compounding Forever Each Mouse Click Religion.
"I too observe 'flation.'"
I love you, TASR!
YOU MAKE KITTY SCARED
Tops Take Time
Postulate A Free Lunch Economy
Anyone, now, who is not genuinely afraid is a moran.
[T]housands of empty stucco crapboxes vacated after being circle-jerk sham-traded among corrupt borkers, uppraisers and loan officers from 100K up to 800K, then "nopay-walkaway" (with dirty loan cash in pockets)
Guess again, girlfriend.
Or, $2.7 million every effing day since the effing pinball machine.
Permabear Hysterian

#25

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 08:17 PM

Jay Taylor now on the Tom O-Brien show talking about excessive debt and market valuations. Says the day of reckoning is coming closer and closer. Things aren't as good as the establishment is painting them. Jay says that the government is fudging the numbers and we do have tons inflation now -- however since debt is growing faster, we are headed for a deflationary crash and a 10 yr bear market.

Precisely!

Stagflation now...deflation thereafter.

#26 DrStool

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 08:23 PM

5:18 Contractors ask U.S. for relief on steel shortages

I guess these guys didn't get the "There Is No Inflation" memo......

You mean the PPI Memo?

Hey Doc...since the government is never again going to release the PPI, and since you have calculated what it would have been - why not just craft a press release and send it out to the financial universe as the ESTIMATED PPI For January and February - along with the criteria used to estimate it.

Put it out there and force them to deny it.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

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#27 wndysrf

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 08:29 PM

You mean the PPI Memo?

Hey Doc...since the government is never again going to release the PPI, and since you have calculated what it would have been  - why not just craft a press release and send it out to the financial universe as the ESTIMATED PPI For January and February - along with the criteria used to estimate it. 

Put it out there and force them to deny it.


That's easy.

Just post a graph, Ross Perot - style, so everyone can visualize what the PPI index has been doing the last couple of years.

Just tell them that the PPI has turned into a Zoo Animal, and use the chart below as an illustration:

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#28 FauxCaster

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 08:31 PM

forget the PPI, the CPI is tied to some forms of debt. Catch them lying about the CPI, and the debt market will go haywire.
"WE ARE BEING KEPT ALIVE by the Entropic movement of Dark Matter(Sino-Nippo-dollar purchasing of $UST)---as soon as there is a ringing sound,a sign of an clogged artriosclerotic wormhole on the emergency fiat-meter it will end--dynamic equilibrium,will have been achieved;better known as death" -- beardrech (Mar 15 2006, 01:17 AM)

"There's a good chance he was drunk or drugged. Only an idiot would jump into the bear cage." -- Belgrade Zoo Director Vuk Bojovic (August 20, 2007).

It's like you're dreamin' about Gorgonzola cheese when it's clearly Brie time, baby. -- Hitchhiker (S.A.M. 1998)

Mar 28 2003: July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move...then the first leg of the bear is over ...many will be caught by surprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years [2007] ..."depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010. -- blackbelt (Mar 28 2003, 10:05 PM)

#29 wndysrf

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 08:40 PM

Damon Vickers hasn't updated his site since 2/23.

He must have really gotten shanked.

Anybody up for investing in the Vickers Broad Band Opportunites Fund??

Last message was:

Reiterate; we are Buying Telecoms/Broadband/Optics on weakness 2/23/2004

Sector still looking very strong... pullbacks to be expected... and accumulated while still in uptrend.

CSCO/EMC/QQQ select Telecoms...

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#30 longOnUranus

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 08:56 PM

Doubling down for dippers? How bout doubling up for short sellers?

I had too good of a week, worked my day job today while the XAU time machine did it's round trip. Still quite long XAU, wish I could've added at the bottom...I can't emphasize strongly enough how an understanding of cycles (esp. at Doc's level), and how the Cheat Street criminals work, has helped my trading. I still lose, but less often - and lose less money - than when I win. Thanks to all the metals experts in particular on this phenomenal website. But I really got lucky not watching the screen today...a shot across the bow...I will admit.

Anyway, re: my post topic..IS ANYONE LOOKING TO SHORT THE BUILDERS??? The Short of the Century, if you can pull it off. Looking to trade a quick downdraft after the FOMC. We are at record mtg low rates, and the homewreckers look toppish...famous last words. Looking at June series puts about 2 strikes out of the money.

More homes for sale in my hood. Less activity from potential buyers of my place (but I'm asking 15% above appraisal, live on a golf course ). Realty in Dallas is turning into a buyers market. There is still lots of inventory. I drive around the new RYL, CTX tract subs near my sub and I'm appalled by the quality of residents in these new homes - trash everywhere, 3 wheeled Firebirds jacked up on the street, etc. Looks like a busload of Balch Springs trailer trash hijacked and planted in upscale suburbia. Though I saw Jed Clampitt when I was driving through there a few hours ago.

I've been rich, I've been poor, and worked my way up the ladder again - several times. I'll go out of my way to give those deserving a break just what they need - a break. But whoever gives these kind of folks new homes with no down payment and no principal for 2 years is gonna cause EVERYONE a lot of pain, and in the not too distant future.

The builders will be the FIRST to feel this turn, IMHO.

I don't know why it took me so long to figure out what the government's interest in all of this is. You transplant people from areas of urban decay, with local govts. already near default, give them an incentive to move up the ladder...and make them captive taxpayers with higher assessed values than they had before. The net tax take, for a metro area like Dallas, has gotta be a plus. Some areas suffer, but a lot of their older bonds are history and they can just trim labor expenses to get by. The new areas, with huge bond issues for new schools and football stadiums, are the greatest default risk, and in the greatest need of an expanded taxpayer base.

Hats off to the Central Planners of the Politburo for a job well done. There is nowhere to move in my area to get a tax break. Makes me wonder just who is actually in the wild cornered animal stage.





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