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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 04:59 PM

Everyone remembers the guys in high school who couldn't handle the pressure, so they resorted to smoking weed.

At first, it was "occasional", primarily to participate in the local party scene.

But later, low self esteem necessitated even higher doses, since regular joint smoking was considered "cool", and the constant stream of dope into the brain helped take the edge off of the academic strains, the peer pressures, constant questioning by the parents as to "what are you going to do with your life", etc. etc.

Over time, it took increasingly higher amounts to ease the pain. And as the self esteem got even lower, these "burnouts" would have to chain smoke themselves into oblivion in order to "outrun" the reality that they were sinking further into a state of uselessness, unease, into the world of a Permanent Slacker.

At the end of my senior year, some of these guys would walk around like zombies, eyes permanently red, eyelids half closed, speech slurred, and generally slackjawed and unmotivated. Brains were completely fried.

Today's credit markets are no different.

Higher and higher amounts of credit are necessary to sink Joe Six into a stupor and raise his self esteem. Because he knows he's drowning in debt, unable to face the reality of how he will pay this stuff off. So he binges on more credit, trying to "outrun" his troubles by piling on more "stuff" to provide him with the appearances of being well off.

China and S. Korea have now become Marijuana Burnouts.

From today's Wall Struck Journal:

"Beijing Focuses On Weak Banks, Not Weak Yuan"

"Beijing is reluctant to let the value of the Yuan float freely, despite calls from the U.S. to do so. Three top financial regulators delivered a message that overhauling state banks takes priority over tinkering with the exchange rate mechanism. Regulators are preoccupied with fixing the banking system because its glaring weaknesses threaten the country's financial stability. State banks already are struggling to dispose of $294 billion of nonperforming debt."

"Chinese leaders are betting on a bold strategy to minimize the risk of a financial meltdown: that by increasing their loan portfolios, state banks can outgrow the piles of bad loans they built up in the past couple of decades. So far its working. The cumulative bad debt ratio last year fell by 5%, not from getting rid of bad old loans, but from increasing new bank loans."

"The risk is that loan growth is too rapid, the new loans have the potential to sour down the road, especially in capital intensive businesses such as cement, aluminum, steel, and real estate, all of which are showing signs of a bubble", says Mr. Liu, China's Banking and Regulatory Commission Chairman.

"The strength the banks and controls on the currency are interlinked. Huge influxes of investment from overseas are taxing the People's Bank of China's ability to keep the peg to the dollar steady, so it must mount costly and inflationary interventions by buying up foreign exchange from the banks and replacing it with yuan. Depositors are forbidden from exchanging their yuan into other currencies, diminishing the chances they will make a run on the banks."

So there you have it.

A Global Dollar Bubble, proceeds of which are being pumped into the Chinese Banks, so they can outrun credit losses by making new loans faster and faster, perpetuating the China Bubble, and turning the banks into "Burnouts".

.................................................

And now, we have an example of Insider Buying for profit:

As reported in today's WSJ:

Overstock.com's stock rises 54%, increasing its market cap from $162 million to $462 million.

Short sellers pile on, and as of February 13, nearly 25% of the 4 million shares are sold short. Overstock's CEO Patrick Byrne, who owns half of the float, so only half of the float is actually traded by the public.

Byrne, after appearing on CNBS, touting how "cheap" his company is and how "expensive" AMZN is, decides to enter a "paired trade".

He shorts AMZN stock, and then spends $13 million of his own cash to buy 620,000 of Overstock shares in order to increase his stake from 37% to 40%.

The purchase sets off a huge squeeze, and Overstock's shares rise 16% and hit a record that day.

I wonder if he was able to offload at a profit.

Anyway, just an example of Wall Struck Criminals at work.........
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#2 wndysrf

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 05:30 PM

Two days in a row of "Market at Close" buy orders from large funds on NEM.

Grab it now while "its cheap"............

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#3 DrStool

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 05:35 PM

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#4 purdymouth

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 05:37 PM

War Rally Failing [Hamilton]

We'll see, Adam.

#5 Old Habits

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 05:44 PM

[quote name='wndysrf' date='Mar 12 2004, 04:30 PM']Two days in a row of "Market at Close" buy orders from large funds on NEM.

Grab it now while "its cheap"............[/quote]
[QUOTE]

Hey Mark, where do you get that info?

BTW, I don't remember seeing you at school. :lol:

#6 DrStool

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:00 PM

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#7 the east is red

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:07 PM

US interest rates continue at historical lows.

Capital misallocation continues.

EOTWAWKI deferred.

#8 fxfox

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:16 PM

Everyone remembers the guys in high school who couldn't handle the pressure, so they resorted to smoking weed.

At first, it was "occasional", primarily to participate in the local party scene.

But later, low self esteem necessitated even higher doses, since regular joint smoking was considered "cool", and the constant stream of dope into the brain helped take the edge off of the academic strains, the peer pressures, constant questioning by the parents as to "what are you going to do with your life", etc. etc.

Over time, it took increasingly higher amounts to ease the pain. And as the self esteem got even lower, these "burnouts" would have to chain smoke themselves into oblivion in order to "outrun" the reality that they were sinking further into a state of uselessness, unease, into the world of a Permanent Slacker.

At the end of my senior year, some of these guys would walk around like zombies, eyes permanently red, eyelids half closed, speech slurred, and generally slackjawed and unmotivated. Brains were completely fried.

Vry nice summary. Today is still the same. I would guess that at least 50% of the students at my university smoke pot like in a manner which would even cheech and chong make proud. Problem is they find that cool. But evryone i know who "smokes" since several years every day, some of them more than once a day, all those guys are somewhat nuts, laughing wierd, laughing when there is nothing to laugh, going with their clothes to bed, spending half of their money every month jsut for the stuff, having no motivation and so on.

Not that i didnt smoke the pot from time to time, but that is diferent when someone smokes every day. It is just the same like when you drink every day 3 liters of beer.

But when you tell someone taking dope every day is no good for ya system, then they look at you like at a conservative nucklehead.
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#9 the east is red

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:19 PM

Everyone remembers the guys in high school who couldn't handle the pressure, so they resorted to smoking weed.

At first, it was "occasional", primarily to participate in the local party scene.

But later, low self esteem necessitated even higher doses, since regular joint smoking was considered "cool", and the constant stream of dope into the brain helped take the edge off of the academic strains, the peer pressures, constant questioning by the parents as to "what are you going to do with your life", etc. etc.

Over time, it took increasingly higher amounts to ease the pain. And as the self esteem got even lower, these "burnouts" would have to chain smoke themselves into oblivion in order to "outrun" the reality that they were sinking further into a state of uselessness, unease, into the world of a Permanent Slacker.

At the end of my senior year, some of these guys would walk around like zombies, eyes permanently red, eyelids half closed, speech slurred, and generally slackjawed and unmotivated.  Brains were completely fried.

As an aside, the penalty for marijuana (or other banned drug) possession in Malaysia is the "mandatory death penalty upon conviction".

Yet I read in the Borneo Post or Miri Times about someone arrested for possession. The last fellow was a 35 year old financial anal cyst at a major bank.
Why am I not surprised . . .

#10 wndysrf

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:21 PM

5:18 Contractors ask U.S. for relief on steel shortages

I guess these guys didn't get the "There Is No Inflation" memo......
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#11 wndysrf

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:24 PM

Too much fear, way too fast.

On the next drop, we need to see the dip buyers coming in with a vengeance.

Lower lows on the indexes, but lower highs on the VXO.

That's why the first "clothesline drop" usually doesn't continue.

Need to get the Dippers emboldened to double down on their bets the next time we roll over.

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#12 machinehead

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:30 PM

But evryone i know who "smokes" since several years every day, some of them more than once a day, all those guys are somewhat nuts, laughing wierd, laughing when there is nothing to laugh, going with their clothes to bed, spending half of their money every month jsut for the stuff, having no motivation and so on.

POT ???

Sounds like option traders to me! :lol:
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#13 wndysrf

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:33 PM

Boom Box stereo systems from Boston Acoustics has reached full saturation in the ghettos.

Anybody and everybody with a $1,500 car now has a $4,000 stereo system.

Now there are no more buyers.

All purchases financed with zero interest credit, 7-year loans, converted into AAA-Rated Structured Exotica called:

"Trunk Vibration Master Receivables Woofer Trust, Unit IV"

Found in your money market prospectus.

Boston Acoustics gets shanked down to $9 AH.

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#14 The brown one

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:33 PM

War Rally Failing [Hamilton]

We'll see, Adam.

You would have thought that Mr.Hamilton might have realised earlier that when credit(money) is as abundant as it has been in Al's Pecuniary Paradise that high beta stocks are the ones that make the most the fastest --as in mo-mo and not in dow-dow.

#15 ShitEatingGrinner

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Posted 12 March 2004 - 06:37 PM

"I wonder if he was able to offload at a profit."


Maybe he bought a bunch of poots?





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