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B4 The Bell Turdsday


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 07:32 AM

Good morning.

The sad news from Spain today will hang heavy over the markets today.

The Great Indian Dream
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Published: March 11, 2004

BANGALORE, India

How did India, in 15 years, go from being a synonym for massive poverty to the brainy country that is going to take all our best jobs? Answer: good timing, hard work, talent and luck.

The good timing starts with India's decision in 1991 to shuck off decades of socialism and move toward a free-market economy with a focus on foreign trade. This made it possible for Indians who wanted to succeed at innovation to stay at home, not go to the West. This, in turn, enabled India to harvest a lot of its natural assets for the age of globalization.


The Great Indian Dream


Yen selling continues unabated

Asahi Shimbun; Mar 11, 2004

Japanese monetary authorities have sold as much as 3 trillion yen to weaken the currency since late February, despite the yen having already started to depreciate against the dollar, sources said

Traders and anal cysts say the government is trying to push the yen's value down further in a shift in strategy that could fuel criticism overseas that Japan is manipulating exchange rates to shore up its economic recovery

Finance Ministry officials deny they are guiding the currency to a specific exchange rate, justifying the massive foreign exchange interventions as an attempt to control the yen's excessive fluctuations.


Total intervention to date in 2004 - 13 trillion yen.

#2 summoner

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 08:02 AM

Congrats to the bears.......remember we have had a 40 pt drop from last fridays intraday high....its pre scam week, and as posted last week there was no way the boys were going to let all those call buyers at 1150 plus go home whole....they have been torched, the vix closed above its BB and the spx below its BB....looking for a scalp long here with spx calls going into scam week.....keep tight stops.....looking for pos d on the hourly or 15 min as the set up ....TRADE SAFE
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"

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NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#3 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 08:06 AM

I think with all the indicators I look at and sentiment the way it is we go down. However, I am not convinced. There are plenty of stoolpid people out there looking for an opportunity to lose thier money on the long side.

Most bearish of the bears in Stoolville exercising caution -- a good sign methinks. ;)

I agree but, you must realise, I have basicaly no emotion about trading. Everything else, yes, the markets, no. I will go short big time should we break 1113.

The peeps poured $40+ billion into mutual funds during January ... which is now all underwater.

The February figures don't come out until March 29, but I would bet another $30 billion or more went into the maw of the MFs in February. And that's all underwater too. (If it proves to be $40 billion or more, I will get VERY bearish.)

The decisive 1.5% selloff today reminds me of the 1987 and 2000 tops. The pattern should not be a slow, meandering sinking, but rather a robust top followed promptly by a vigorous selloff. That spells "end of trend and turnaround."

Fear will strike much faster this time than the last two tops. People have not forgotten how much the last down turn hurt, and will be quick to bail out when the fear response strikes...and it won't take very long. This has been the Wishful Thinking Rally...but the point of recognition will come all too fast, and will feel all too familiar. A few more revelations, a few more lies exposed, and this one could turn into a full blown crash.

Psychology need only shift from "Buy The Dips" to "Sell The Rallies" to move from a bull to a bear phase.

Where do you think the fear lies?

I agree and have said it before. The triggers will get pulled much quicker this time around. We have had a very large increase in margin on both the NYSE and the Nasquack. We have already had the New Year piling on of 401 funding, which as MH points out is already underwater. Everyone's program trading bots may well sychronize to the downside. Regardless of TA, I think the potential downside is huge though maybe not quite just yet. Is this a triple witch OPEX coming up?

Yesterday had the hint of people raising cash or bailing out to conserve capital. No market had a big up day cept maybe $US forex. There was no significant "flight to safety" that I saw.

Are the total daily market cap figures published anywhere? A lot of "money" went to money heaven yesterday. This is part of how the money supply can instantly shrink faster than the matrix can press the "print" button.

If residential RE values decline just 5% you're looking at a 700 billion dollar loss. I also think that since housing has been behaving more like a stock market mania nationwide, it could correct down a lot faster than everybody thinks. In a lot of cases houses behave like stocks in a down market. The prices get set by the last accepted bid. Appraisals are primarily based on comparables. Anybody have any information on how Japanese mortgage bonds performed when their RE market started to fall apart? IMO I think Treasurys will still retain their safe haven status, but most other bonds will start seeing widening spreads. I think there have been a lot of people who whave piled into munis for a meager tax free return who are going to get the heads handed to them. Staate and local budgets don't look quite as bad as they did a year ago, but it's smoke and mirrors. Most of those gains came from one time draining of all available funds and borrowing. The real trouble for States and locals is just beginning.

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 08:14 AM

Futures looking exceptionally weak this morning.

#5 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 08:18 AM

Europe is having a very bad day. FTSE off 2.3%, CAC off 3.2%, DAX off 3.6% (and back under the "round" number of 4000)

Futures not looking so good, but hey it's early. I might be leary of of a drop and pop scenario.

#6 Hiding Bear

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 08:28 AM

Not only were rceent flows into mutual funds heavy, but there was some indications that the money is not new savings but taken from existing bank savings accounts or borrowed. Although I am not saying that people would take on a new mortgage or borrow from their credit card to directly buy stocks, they may incur a greater debt on something else (i.e. home mortgage) to keep up their investments in the market.

Or like yobob said, they may be quicker to sell to protect a poor personal balance sheet.

Fund Flows
http://www.amgdata.com/

#7 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 08:45 AM

If the outlook for the economy is so rosy, why are corporate executives selling their own stock at a record clip? Yeah Bubba, explain that one to me. What's a matta, cat got your tongue? Not even trying the ole diversification theme?

In our view this toppy looking market is particularly dangerous in a post-bubble environment featured by major structural imbalances in the economy and severe overvaluation in the market. We believe that the real lesson learned in the 2000-2003 bear market was not to overstay a declining market. As a result the next market decline may have a domino effect as investors rush to get through a very narrow exit. At that point we are likely to get the final panic sell-off that was missing at the previous bottom in 2003. Current market action may be indicating that we are close to that point right now. Great minds are all lost at the same time. :lol:
Comstock on Tuesday

#8 The End

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 08:53 AM

If we break 1113 on an hourly close, LOB.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#9

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 08:58 AM

Portfolio value increased 5.5% yesterday...up 14% for the week.

"Please Sir...May I Have Another?"

Still keeping my wits about me, setting my stops, ready for any form of criminality...but I think it's another ugly day for the Bull.

#10 machinehead

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 09:23 AM

Everyone's program trading bots may well sychronize to the downside.

In a column I read recently (sorry I don't recall the reference), the author had been talking to institutionalized investors. He said they all had mental stops, where they would bail to conserve assets.

He described it as "portfolio insurance without market stop orders," or something like that.

It sounds exactly right. All that hot money. The vast herd, whose mood can change from greed to fear in a millisecond.

By the way, it's not clear whether ETA or some other group was responsible for the horrific bombing in Madrid this morning. Apparently ETA did not place their usual warning phone call in advance.

For what it's worth, the Al Qaeda signature is often pairs of bombings (e.g. the two U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, the twin towers, etc.). In other words, it may not be over yet. I hope I am totally wrong about that (there were three bombings in Madrid, so maybe the multiple hits have been executed already).

Today is a somber day for Spain, and for Europe. The reaction to this incident may change things there, and not for the better. :cry:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#11 Hiding Bear

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 09:43 AM

Spain quick to blame ETA, maybe too quick (round up the usual suspects) -

Spanish officials called it the deadliest attack ever by the armed Basque separatist group, ETA (search).

But Arnold Otegi, leader of Batasuna (search), an outlawed Basque party linked to the armed separatist group, denied it was behind the blasts and suggested "Arab resistance" elements were responsible.

Otegi told Radio Popular in San Sebastian that ETA always phones in warnings before it attacks. The interior minister said there was no warning before Thursday's attack.

"I think there could be an Al Qaeda connection simply because of the coordination because the style theirs," said former Ambassador Dennis Ross, a Fox News foreign affairs anal cyst. "But a lot of these groups like to work together now. Al Qaeda seems to be franchising."

"If it's Al Qaeda, that's a reminder that what Al Qaeda stands for is death and destruction nothing that benefits humanity," Ross said.

The government convened anti-ETA rallies nationwide for Friday evening.

Fox News - Madrid Train Station Blasts Kill More Than 170

#12 machinehead

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 09:49 AM

"3/11" is Spain's 9/11.

Thirty months to the day ... :ph34r:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#13 Bearman

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 09:54 AM

"3/11" is Spain's 9/11.

Thirty months to the day ... :ph34r:

I share your thoughts on 3/11 thing

what does it all mean??? Answer look down















LOB

#14

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 10:00 AM

So, what day do we leave DOW 10,000 in the rear view mirror?

I pick today.

#15 DrStool

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Posted 11 March 2004 - 10:01 AM

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