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B4 The Bell, Frieday, March 5


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#301 Hiding Bear

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 07:42 PM

Apropos to our postings about rising unemployment and the decline of consumption as the end result. John Maudlin in todays letter speaks at length on that very issue. Maudlins thesis has been until today that the economy will muddle through NOW he is changing his tune. He expects among many measures (rammed in place by Bushie) that unemployment benefits will be extended to an ongoing, permanent dole ( think what that would do to the deficit) because if it isn't lack of consumption will implode the economy. The real unemployment rate he estimates is 14.6% and climbing. Have a read at-frontlinethoughts.com ;)

Just got back to the ole'computers. Didn't read Maudlin lately because I didn't
suscribe to the muddle through theory. But like you say, he is changing his tune (perhaps he discovered B$ the Bell!) :P

Anyway I think the weak unemployment picture will encourage Congress sometime later this year but a month or so before elections at most will pass - for the fourth time in four years - a 'job' act.

#302 Hiding Bear

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 07:52 PM

Dollar expected to rise on likely BOJ interventions

The U.S. dollar is expected to rise against the yen next week as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to keep up its massive interventions in the market to weaken the Japanese currency.

Currency traders said they expect the dollar to trade between 110.00 yen and 113.00 yen in the coming week.

During the past week, the dollar generally moved higher due to a string of BOJ dollar-buying interventions and speculators' moves to reverse their short-dollar and long-yen positions, the traders said.

The dollar touched the week's low in Tokyo of 108.93 yen on Tuesday and hit a five-month high of 111.43 yen on Friday, the highest level since Oct. 1, 2003, when the dollar rose to 111.50 yen in Tokyo.
http://asia.news.yah.../d814kkf82.html

The BOJ now has more ammunition. An extra budget for the current fiscal year adopted in early February added 21 trillion yen to the BOJ's intervention funds, bringing them to a total of 100 trillion yen. The fiscal 2004 state budget, to be enacted by early April, will add another 40 trillion yen.

The story is good but omits the facts on how Japan is going to pay for the billions of US$ it buys. I found out only today that Japan is now going to accelerate the
issuance of new Treasury type bills in March - that is they will be raising $10 billion a week on their credit market.

Although this may not cause interest rates in Japan to rise much, it does effect the supply of money that could go into other markets - such as the stock market.

#303 Hiding Bear

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 08:03 PM

Hoo Boy- CNN is running a story about the RNC sending letters to TV stations warning them they will be sued if they run anti-Bush ads paid for by the group moveon.org.  Now I don't like politicians in general but Bushie is scary, spiteful and seems to be bothered by the concept of "free speech".  ;)

Soros is loving this...Bush is hanging himself...and now these ads will run hundreds of times for free as part of the news story covering the dispute. Hilarious!

OT Political Rant - I think the failing of the Republicans this year is their closed group thinking and sticking with the plan they had from day one.

For example, there was no consideration of dropping VP Chain-knee - even with his associations with Haliburton, energy meetings with Enron, and in general bad planning for Iraq. Apparently they want to stick to the terrorist fighting, gun toting plan rather than place some distance from mistakes.

Remember Clinton discarded a number of his friends when times got tough, and put their mistakes at least politically mostly behind him.

#304 Hiding Bear

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 08:10 PM

A quick glance at yesterdays Financial Post-shows just how baaaaad business is and how companies are chopping up the furniture to feed the fire-shareholders read bagholders are too stupid to realize what is going on-"Boeing may take $700 Million pre-tax charge in 2004-related to its controversial $18 Billion tanker deal and its slow moving small jetliner program. This was revealed in its annual 10k filing with the SEC on Friday." " Sprint may sell its 6,000 transmission towers valued at $1.5 Billion to cut payments on its $17.4 Billion of debt it had at the end of December." "Sun Micro debt ratings cut to Junk by Standard & Poors citing losses at the Company and fierce competition in the server market." These Companies are being killed by DEBT and low interest rates won't save them-NOTHING WILL. ;)

Companies like Sun should have sold more stock instead of issuing debt when their stock was much higher. Many companies didn't issue stock, and even bought back all stock issued through employee option plans, so their stock would stay high for chief executive compensation programs.

The wants of a few excutives prevented companies from acheiving a balanced financial structure.

Now they will have to choke on thier mistakes.

#305 Howl

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 08:13 PM

Sounds to me that Moveon.org is in violation of federal election laws that were voted on and approved by both parties ( including John Kerry).

Here is the full context of the letter to the TV stations.

http://www.gop.com/m...tion_letter.pdf

Whether moveon.org is or is not in violation is totally besides the point. If the GOP really thinks moveon.org is in violation, they should sue moveon.org directly. By targetting the TV stations, the GOP is trying to silence moveon.org in such a way that moveon.org cannot defend itself.

Fortunately, the media consortiums care most about their business, which is selling advertising time. They want as little responsibility for what their advertisers are doing with that time. They certainly do not want the GOP (or anyone else) to tell them that they can't accept millions of ad revenues. So in this case they will ridiculise the GOP, just to show who is boss.

#306 zensmoke

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 08:22 PM

Events
MONDAY, MARCH 15
TOKYO- Bank of Japan (BOJ) two-day monetary policy meeting (to
March 16).

TUESDAY, MARCH 16
WASHINGTON- U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) holds one-day meeting on interest rates, with policy
statement to be issued at close of meeting.- 1915 GMT

TOKYO- Bank of Japan (BOJ) two-day monetary policy meeting
ends.

TOKYO- Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases monthly economic report-
0600 GMT

TOKYO- Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Toshihiko Fukui holds news
conference- 0630 GMT


http://www.forbes.co...rtr1289424.html

#307 Hiding Bear

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 08:47 PM

Events
MONDAY, MARCH 15
TOKYO- Bank of Japan (BOJ) two-day monetary policy meeting (to
March 16).

TUESDAY, MARCH 16
WASHINGTON- U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) holds one-day meeting on interest rates, with policy
statement to be issued at close of meeting.- 1915 GMT

TOKYO- Bank of Japan (BOJ) two-day monetary policy meeting
ends.

TOKYO- Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases monthly economic report-
0600 GMT

TOKYO- Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Toshihiko Fukui holds news
conference- 0630 GMT


http://www.forbes.co...rtr1289424.html

Some BOJ board members said the Janaury easing by the BOJ was poorly explained - that is because they didn't want to publicly state the real reason which was to issue fiat yen to buy US$.

Even though the BOJ even admitted last week it unoffically eased a little more, and though the MOF is acting like a second central bank and also providing temporary issues of new fiat yen, there may be no further official easings in Japan. When the inflationary impact of the declining yen and soaring wholesale prices hit them like a tsunami, interest rates will finally have to rise there.

#308 brian4

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 09:03 PM

We are on (literally) the edge of the wedge tomorrow we must- repeat- must stay under a close of 1158-60 or this beast will be at 1170 in the blink of an eye conversely a break of 1150 gives the BEARS the ball back and a break of 1145 is a touchdown-I have already moved my stop for tomorrow to 1163 risking 3 points only, an intraday move over 1160 is meaningless but a close over it and its up, up and away! ;)

#309 brian4

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 09:28 PM

The Boner run of the $ in futures is nasty for Gold but even worse for the markets-$ up against every currency but the ruble!

#310 The End

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 09:44 PM

Hey guys and gals. Brian I could not agree more with your last two posts. B)
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#311 The End

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 09:46 PM

By the way, the season premier of the Sopranos is coming on in 15 minutes. Yes, I started watching T.V. again.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#312 brian4

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 09:52 PM

Good to see ya-TE-yup I gotta wait till 9 pm to see it-Soprano's are the best of T.V.. Futures are above fair value but weakening, they better weaken some more. ;)

#313 zensmoke

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 09:54 PM

Posted Image

> Dollar Index Cash (NYBOT:DXY0)

30-min delayed quote.

#314

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 10:11 PM

Brian,

http://bogart-tribut...nds/looking.wav

http://bogart-tribut...timegoesby1.mid

There is a bunch of them here:

http://classicfilm.a.....t/sounds.html

#315 brian4

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Posted 07 March 2004 - 10:59 PM

Sleddy-Thank-you for that! "As times Go By" if memory serves me right was written by the Late, Great-Hoagy carmichael. True story in 1954 I had just turned 13 my mom and dad and I were visiting my Uncle Clarence who ran a diner (yep old transit bus) across from Universal International Studio's. We were eating breakfast at a big table in the back when in came Bogey, Mamie Van Doren, Rock Hudson, and Bud Abbott and Lou Costello. My Uncle Clarence -introduced his Canadian Brethren and they all sat down at the table, Mamie gave me a hug and I discovered puberty right at that moment. Later Rock and Bogey for whatever reason said we'd like to take the kid for a tour of the Studio-Mom and Dad said fine and my "greatest day began" I have NEVER forgotten that day nor WILL I! ;)





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