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B4 The Bell, Frieday, March 5

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#286 depends


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 02:46 PM

...Moveon.org is in violation of federal election laws...

No charges of slander in the letter.
Guess they don't dispute the content.

#287 Hypertiger


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 03:34 PM

Tchaikovsky, What's going to happen to the value of your home when the cost of oil rises more, straining consumers to the breaking point? What about an eventual interest rate hike if the dollar continues plummeting? It looks to me, and I'll admit that I'm no financial wizard, that there's no more than a year left for the American housing market, with the exception of Southern California. In depressions entertainment usually does well, and the militarization of the entire economy will benefit S.Cal disproportionately, so some of the negative effects may be ameliorated.There may be a general upward trend in real estate from an historic viewpoint, but you can have years of correction due to any number of causes.  If I were in the states right now, I'd be renting.

Oh, and have you thought of the eventual cost of medicare to U.S  if her citizens don't lay off the french fries? --and Catsup is like diabetes in a bottle!! :grin:

Threadbare, I don't know what happens to home values in the future, but assume that we are at or near a peak for a "considerable period." Making the price appreciation available to homeowners via re-fi, second mortgage or home equity line of credit is what's keeping the consumer spending plate spinning, IMO.

I am, however, giving consideration to the following, posted by Machinehead on M2M last night:

The stock market is still suspended in midair, in an unstable equilibrium between the depressing forces of overvaluation and inflation, and the supportive force of low interest rates.

But what a day for commodities:

Silver $6.99 +0.22
Gold $401.60 + 8.40
Crude oil $37.26 +0.62

CRB components

The bond breakout is significant, though yields on the 5-yr and 10-year Treasuries settled almost exactly at the 50% retracement of last summer's huge pop. Maybe they will start creeping up again next week.

But meanwhile, the renewed drop in yields suggests that negative real rates (maybe as low as minus 10%) will be with us for the rest of 2004.

If so, the conclusion is simple: borrow 'free money' out the wazoo, back up the truck, and shovel in commodities and real estate till your hands bleed.

One slight problem with that...It is not free money...it is cheap debt...The cheapest debt so far in in Japan at 0.1%

It has to be paid back...Debt inflation loses strength over time...

when rates in the US reached their maximum potential "high" or 19% debt inflationary potential collapsed...since then the FED has dropped rates on average 83 basis points a year for the past 22 years since then to prevent a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt...Now we are on the doorstep of the maximum potential "low". Theoretically the low is zero but realistically as low as they can go is it...No amount of volume can make zero rates profitable...so rates can only go so low...

Just as raising rates weakens debt inflationary potential lowering rates strengthens debt inflationary potential...Holding rates at any level won't work since debt inflationary potential is constantly weakening...

For money to be free it must not be a debt owed...so if you went to a bank and borrowed money but never had to pay it back or make payments on it then it would be free...

It all has to be serviced or paid back...it is not free...Just cheap...

By raising rates it can be made prohibitively expensive and by lowering rates it can be made very cheap...but unless it is given away and no requirement to pay it back to the giver is attached...it is no free...

To continue the 45 year debt inflationary self delusional bubble that we have grown hopelessly dependant on...rates must drop basically forever...

That is impossible...and holding rates as low as they can go will have the same effect as holding rates as high as they can go over time...

Lets say some sort of free money give away does take place...Then what?

Then the mechanics of debt inflation become dependant not on how many consumers sign on the dotted line but on the speed at which the free money give away is distributed...Faster and faster more and more...

Until prices are rising faster then supercomputers can account for...this infinite debt inflationary system lasts for months at most...Imagine the past 45 years of debt inflation compressed into a 6 month period or in the space of an hour...

I've looked at it and there is no escape from reality...Once debt inflation ends debt deflation will follow...it is that simple...

Basis points are the fuel of a debt backed by debt system when they are all consumed to support debt inflationary potential...debt inflationary potential will weaken then collapse...all the supressed debt deflationary potential then floods out and drowns the system...with no way to stop it...

If your goal is to create a more powerful force of debt inflationary potential to overpower debt deflationary potential and you can not drop rates past zero then it is game over...

It is game over right now...just very few people know about it...

When mass realization finally shows up it will become blindingly self evident to 100's of millions of people all at the same time...

The mass realization that money is not free...That it needs to be paid back and that it is impossible to do so...

Maximum debt inflationary potential will be reached one way or the other and there is nothing anyone on Earth can do to prevent it...

Whatever straw you are grasping is dependat on debt inflation being perpetuated forever...or at least until you die...

Pray that you die very soon...

when the "inevitable" cave in happens...you will wish you were dead...Because everything I have posted for the past 2 years will become sickeningly crystal clear...It will be blindingly self evident...

You will instantly see what you should have done but no time to do it will exist anymore...

It is simple...reduce your cost of existance as low as it will go and get out of all debt including assets that depend on debt inflation to support their price...

Gold and silver should be the last to fall...

Everything you take for granted now will cease to exist...friends will become enemies and assets will become liabilities...order will become chaos...laws designed to protect you will be used against you...

Debt deflation is the opposite of debt inflation...too much becomes too little...hope becomes despair...

That is what the future holds...that is where we are headed...

Denial will not save you...You either believe debt inflation lasts forever or you don't...

My stance is that debt inflation can't last forever and we are at the end of the line...

Very few people seem to grasp this simple concept...

Currently the concept of debt deflation is considered impossible...when in fact it becomes more probable by the day...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 03:36 PM

depends Posted: Mar 7 2004, 01:46 PM
QUOTE (sleddog @ Mar 7 2004, 12:15 PM)
...Moveon.org is in violation of federal election laws...

No charges of slander in the letter.
Guess they don't dispute the content.

Paragraph 3 of RNC letter

"Between now and November, our nation will engage in a debate that pits President Bush’s strong and steady leadership against others who seek to attack the President and engage in a vicious, negative campaign. We fully anticipate these attacks, and I write not because of the misleading allegations contained in the advertisement, which will be answered in due time, but because running this advertisement breaks the law."

#289 threadbare


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 04:57 PM

"If Democrats were more attentive to their constituencies, they would be aggressively promoting this reasonable alternative to Greenspan's sordid double talk, attacking him for duplicity and filing resolutions of impeachment. Did the Federal Reserve chairman knowingly deceive Congress and the public? What did the chairman know and when did he know it? Let the hearings begin. "-Greider

The rule of law in mainstream media is--Neocons are allowed to shout, interupt, bully, and present non-substantive, illogical patter, under the pretext of reasoned debate. This is actually encouraged and supported by anchors, fellow talking heads, interviewers and hosts. A "liberal" (meaning ANYONE who doesn't support the neocon agenda) isn't allowed to do that. Hell, they're barely allowed to appear or open their mouths.

Anyone wondering why democrats are meek, given the fire power geeks like Greenspan have handed them, should understand that they will go through a "Howard Deaning" (see --media lynch mob) if they dare step too far out of line. Dean was made out to be a scary axe murderer by the media matrix and I have no doubt it had to do with demopublicans pulling strings , for fear he might alter the tax structure.

As far as the democratic party goes--I also suspect they may have been infiltrated. Terry McCaulliffe appears completely compromised and conflicted to me. I have to grab a barf bag or change the channel quick when this dude hits the tube. There's all the standard and true arguments about dems yielding to big money because they're working for the same masters which also goes a long way in explaining the problem . But their political implosion the last few years also looks a little like engineered sabotage from within. If one could entertain the idea of a Communist conspiracy engineered by a foreign nation on domestic soil, decades ago, how big a leap is it to wonder if neocons may have plants in the democratic party?

Dean is a good example of potential destroyed. If potential is realized, and a (s)elected president tries to change things in the best interests of the masses, they'll be taken out one way or another, like Chavez and Aristide.

***Icky Twerp--Good to hear from you and happy to hear you got another job so quickly and that you're getting out of Texas. I suggest watching the show "Curb Appeal" if you want to sell your house quickly. Remember--hide those knick knacks, and "stage" the interior by lighting lots of candles, bouquets of real fresh flowers (not fake) and bowls of fresh fruit .

#290 reck


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 05:07 PM


Delphi was awarded a temporary restraining order against two of its suppliers - Republic Engineered Products LLC and NSS Technologies - on Feb. 20 in Saginaw County Circuit Court. The suppliers had threatened to stop shipping steel parts if Delphi would not agree to pay more for the parts. Steel prices have been escalating since December, pushing the price tags as much as 30% higher.

#291 brian4


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 05:20 PM

A quick glance at yesterdays Financial Post-shows just how baaaaad business is and how companies are chopping up the furniture to feed the fire-shareholders read bagholders are too stupid to realize what is going on-"Boeing may take $700 Million pre-tax charge in 2004-related to its controversial $18 Billion tanker deal and its slow moving small jetliner program. This was revealed in its annual 10k filing with the SEC on Friday." " Sprint may sell its 6,000 transmission towers valued at $1.5 Billion to cut payments on its $17.4 Billion of debt it had at the end of December." "Sun Micro debt ratings cut to Junk by Standard & Poors citing losses at the Company and fierce competition in the server market." These Companies are being killed by DEBT and low interest rates won't save them-NOTHING WILL. ;)

#292 zensmoke


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 06:04 PM


The Iditarod is on cable right now!! Outdoor channel if you have it.
8:00 AM and 11:00 pm every day of the race.

Thanks Sleddy!

I don't have cable right now (I'm a cheap Bassturd)-----just following the race on the Internet.

#293 zensmoke


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 06:11 PM

B$ -
Thanks for making a home for us here... :rolleyes: ... since I became (taking full responsibility for my own emotions and actions) "unwelcome" at the rest of Stoolville. I am busy, now, as I will explain, and I don't trade (tho' as I have said, "I like to watch"), so I can't post as often as I'd like, but this is where I want to be as the good ship USS Dow Jones goes under. :grin:

I will observe that "the turn" is the most profound observation, applicable to every human activity, IMVHO... I mean of course, your daily calls, but also, the pivot in a golfswing and the mental synapse that makes a poem. Whatever anything is, "the turn" is what makes it what it is, and those who "see" the turn are the sages ... "clever" people can see what is, but the profound see what is AND the turn -- no one can see what-will-be after the turn, and I don't expect that, even from the Good Doktor. ;)

I got laid off at the end of january :o , but miraculously landed a job in another state within in a week :lol: , due to fortuitous networking. So I am travelling and working at a job that leaves me limp at the end of the long-working-day (desk-job). :( My observation of this process has not made me more optimistic, but rather less. I'm in Scottsdale Az, which reminds me of Wndy's descriptions of SoCal. No one there has the foggiest clue as to what we think here. With my miracle-job, and the unfettered consumerism I witness there everyday, I have to question my bear-orientation, but macro-wise things seem to be deteriorating, still, que-no? :unsure:

So I'll sell my house in Texas, if I can, and move to Az, debt-free, and ride the whirlwind as long as it lasts -- how long will it be? I have discovered an unattractive side of my personality that is going to enjoy watching it all unfold. ;)

The good news is that I'll get my hands on some 401k that have been in cash for 3 years, with no sensible outlet for them. I was thinking NZ CDs at Everbank and some more physical, but geez my PCRDX has been righteous the last two month :lol:

Highest possible regards to B$ & TE,
and Plunger & MH & Captains Log & Pee Brain & Soup & Yobob! & HT
May the AntiMatrix bless all Stoolies,
and protect those Mad Lads scalping long-shots

Icky, I also feel most comfortable here on B4 The Bell.

Thanks Brian for creating the best board on the Internet for folks like us!

#294 zensmoke


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 06:21 PM

More on the Bird Flu incident in Maryland ----

Maryland agriculture officials order slaughter, quarantine after bird flu found
By GRETCHEN PARKER Associated Press Writer
3/7/2004 3:54:00 PM

POKOMOKE CITY, Md. (AP) -- The discovery of avian influenza in Maryland compelled the slaughter of 328,000 birds on a huge commercial chicken farm, nearly four times the number killed when two Delaware farms were infected last month.

The cases in Delaware and on Maryland's Eastern Shore are from the same H7 strain, which is not harmful to humans, authorities said Sunday.


#295 zensmoke


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 06:25 PM

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez urged his foes on Sunday to peacefully seek a referendum against him and he warned Washington to stop backing anti-government protests he said could affect oil supplies to the United States.

In a rambling five-hour broadcast that mixed threats with appeals, the left-wing leader said he regretted the deaths of at least eight people in the recent street protests by opponents demanding that he submit to a recall vote.

He once again accused President Bush's government of financing efforts to oust him and recalled that Venezuela, the world's No. 5 oil exporter, was traditionally a leading supplier of oil to the U.S. market.

"So what is it this (U.S.) government is trying to do? Destabilize its secure (oil) supplier?" Chavez asked during his weekly "Hello President" television and radio show.


#296 zensmoke


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 06:33 PM

Oil prices keep climbing as tensions rise in Venezuela
Sunday, Mar 07, 2004,Page 10
"The recent unrest in OPECs only Latin American member has reminded traders of the strike that began there in late 2002, crippling oil exports."
Lee Elliott, a trader with GNI

New York's benchmark crude oil contract broke above US$37 a barrel Friday for the first time since the Iraq war, kicked higher by tensions in major producer Venezuela.

Light sweet crude for delivery in April leapt US$0.62 to US$37.26 a barrel at the close. Brent North Sea crude for April rose US$0.46 to finish at US$33.35.

Traders feared a repeat of last year's interruption to supplies from violence-torn Venezuela, where at least eight people have been killed and dozens injured in recent days in unrest over an official refusal to hold a referendum to recall President Hugo Chavez.

"People remember very well what happened when Venezuela went on strike," said Refco anal cyst Jim Still. "They are very nervous."

#297 depends


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 06:50 PM

Paragraph 3 of RNC letter... misleading allegations contained in the advertisement...

sleddog - Guess I read it too fast,
appreciate the correction.

#298 zensmoke


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 06:59 PM

This, probably, will cause some nervous trading tomorrow in Oil futures.

Venezuela's Chavez: No Oil For US If US Tries To Invade

CARACAS (AP)--Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez vowed Sunday to freeze oil exports to the U.S. and wage a "100-year war" if Washington ever tried to invade Venezuela.

Washington has repeatedly denied ever trying to overthrow Chavez, but the leftist leader has accused the U.S. of being behind a failed 2002 coup and of funding opposition groups now seeking a recall referendum on his presidency.

Chavez accused the U.S. of ousting former Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide and warned Washington not to "even think about trying something similar in Venezuela."

Venezuela "has enough allies on this continent to start a 100-year war," Chavez said during his weekly television show.

He added that "U.S. citizens could forget about ever getting Venezuelan oil" if the U.S. ever tried to invade the South American country.

Venezuela provides about 15% of U.S. oil imports but relations between the two countries are rocky over Chavez's friendship with Cuban President Fidel Castro, his criticism of U.S.-led negotiations for a free trade zone in the Americas and his opposition to the war in Iraq.

(More on Dow Jones Newswires)

03-07-04 1747ET- - 05 47 PM EST 03-07-04

#299 zensmoke


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 07:05 PM


The Bank of Japan releases February figures for the
nation's most widely watched measure of money supply --
M2 plus certificates of deposit. It rose 1.6 percent in
January from a year earlier.


The Bank of Japan releases February lending data for the
three main categories of Japanese banks. In January,
lending fell 4.6 percent from a year earlier.


The Cabinet Office releases its "economy watchers"
survey for February. The poll compiles anecdotal
evidence of economic sentiment among taxi drivers, shop
clerks and other service sector workers. It yielded a
diffusion index of 48.6 in January

#300 zensmoke


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Posted 07 March 2004 - 07:08 PM

Wild crows in test positive for bird flu
3/7/2004 11:42 AM
By: Capital News 9 web staff

Two dead crows have tested positive for bird flu in Japan. An official said it's the country's first case of infection in wild birds.

An agriculture ministry official said the birds have a type of avian influenza, but it's not clear if it matches the one that has devastated farms across Asia. Authorities suspect that migratory birds may be spreading the disease.


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