B4 The Bell Fryday
256 replies to this topic
Posted 29 February 2004 - 08:59 PM
Thanks gang for the many interesting posts. It will be interesting to see if personal income improves tommorrow as much as Wall Street expects - while employment growth remains sluggish.
Any Eurozone-traders here that have any comments on the 'Schroder Rout' (not my interpretation but what the media is saying). Looks like the bedrock of monetary stability in the Euro-zone is giving into more Socialist thinking on spending (Finance Minister may be leaving).
Schroeder's Reforms Face Test After Hamburg Rout
Published: February 29, 2004
HAMBURG, Germany (Reuters) - German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's commitment to painful economic reforms faces a major test in coming months after his Social Democrats suffered a stinging election defeat in Hamburg on Sunday.
Voters in the northern port punished the Social Democrats (SPD) for unpopular welfare cuts and gave the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) an absolute majority in what used to be a stronghold for Schroeder's center-left party.
The defeat also fueled speculation of a cabinet reshuffle to give the government fresh momentum, with anal cysts expecting Finance Minister Hans Eichel, Health Minister Ulla Schmidt and Transport Minister Manfred Stolpe to be replaced.
Schroeder's party has trailed the CDU by 20 points in national voter surveys for the best part of a year and has started to show signs of panic since the implementation of key reforms in January caused a public outcry.
Schroeder managed to quell a growing grassroots rebellion in February by handing over the SPD leadership to Franz Muentefering, a trusted ally more in tune with the soul of the party than him.
``You can't keep on governing against public opinion,'' said Karl-Rudolf Korte, political scientist at the University of Duisburg-Essen. ``This will dramatically change the pace of reform in this country.''
Posted 29 February 2004 - 09:26 PM
=DJ Chavez Threatens To Halt Venezuelan Oil Exports To US
By Charles Roth
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
CARACAS (Dow Jones)--Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Sunday "not one drop" of his country's oil would go to the U.S. if Washington were to launch a "blockade or invade" Venezuela.
Chavez has increased his verbal attacks on the U.S. recently, accusing the U.S. of seeking to destabilize his government. His domestic opposition, though, says the embattled president is just trying to divert attention from efforts to vote him out of office.
Were U.S. President George W. Bush "to blockade or invade Venezuela, not one drop of petroleum would reach them from Venezuela," Chavez told a large throng of his supporters at an outdoor rally Sunday that was televised live. He also implied the U.S. has plenty of assets in Venezuela that could be seized were Washington to move militarily against the South American nation, which is the world's fifth biggest oil exporter. The U.S. is Venezuela's top commercial client.
Chavez bitterly accused the Bush administration of financing and otherwise supporting his domestic political opposition, whose Friday protest march met with heavy doses of tear gas, rubber bullets and similarly repressive measures from National Guard troops. The opposition had hoped to deliver a written statement to developing country heads of state and delegates attending a Group of 15 summit taking place in the capital, Caracas. Two people were killed, and scores injured in ensuing clashes.
(rest of story on Dow Jones Newswires)
Posted 29 February 2004 - 09:42 PM
Seems the more people there are on this Planet, the more SOCIALIST
the Zietgeist becomes. Personel Responsability, Individualism......NAH.
Must be a RAT type thing, like when you confine too many of them.
Well...just going to have to see what Market begets tomorrow. Seems like everyother day...were at CROSSROADS kinda VIBE.
Meanwhile ...Market not really going anywhere....BUT underpinnings are
deteriorating........like most marriages after 7 years.
See you in the action A.M.
Posted 29 February 2004 - 09:45 PM
Chavez said Bush "was not even the legitimate president of the United States."
Interfereing in the affairs of another country - sorry only the US is allowed to do that! At least he didn't call for a regime change!
Actually it was those who opposed Chavez that shut down oil production in 2002.
Now he threatens to use the same tactic. So it doesn't look like oil will backtrack from $36 too quick.
CARACAS (AP)--President Hugo Chavez railed against U.S. intervention in Venezuelan politics Sunday, rallying more than 100,000 supporters as opponents staged counter-demonstrations in several cities to demand he step down.
"This is to say no to Yankee intervention!" Chavez bellowed to cheers from thousands thronging a Caracas highway.
The leftist leader, who accuses Washington of being behind a failed 2002 coup and of funding groups seeking a recall referendum on his rule, vowed to stay in power longer than U.S. President George W. Bush, who comes up for re-election in November.
Chavez said Bush "was not even the legitimate president of the United States," referring to the problematic Florida balloting in the 2000 U.S. elections, which had to be resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court.
"This is to say no to the government of Mr. Bush, an interventionist, invading, colonialist government as has never before passed through the White House," Chavez said. "I'm challenging Mr. Bush to a bet. Who will last longer: him in the White House or me?"
Washington denies backing attempts to oust Chavez, including the 2002 coup.
Posted 29 February 2004 - 09:45 PM
Venezuela may be on brink of fresh turmoil
By Andy Webb-Vidal in Caracas
Published: March 1 2004 0:33 | Last Updated: March 1 2004 0:33
Venezuela teetered on the brink of turmoil on Sunday as President Hugo Chávez's opponents debated whether to pursue an increasingly fraught bid to force a recall vote or to call for civil rebellion.
The escalation of tensions came as the National Electoral Council (CNE) was last night expected to rule that an opposition-organised petition submitted in December did not contain enough valid signatures to secure a recall referendum on Mr Chávez's controversial rule.
Posted 29 February 2004 - 10:29 PM
DJ Tanigaki: Fiscal Discipline Needed For Smooth JGB Sales
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan needs to maintain fiscal discipline in order to ensure the smooth distribution of Japanese government bonds, Finance Minister Sadakazu Tanigaki said Monday.
Smooth distribution of JGBs relies on "maintaining (investor) trust in JGBs," Tanigaki said at the Lower House Budget Committee meeting. "In order to do this, the government needs to show fiscal discipline."
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has said Japan aims to achieve a primary balance by early 2010. Continuing to make efforts to achieve a primary balance is the basic stance of the government, Tanigaki added.
Under a primary balance, government spending equals revenues, excluding debt-servicing costs and government bond revenues.
(MORE on Dow Jones Newswires)
Posted 29 February 2004 - 11:15 PM
Japan's Nikkei Rises to 21-Month High; TDK, Mizuho, Aeon Gain
March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks rose, pushing the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to a 21-month high. TDK Corp. paced gains in computer-related stocks after a U.S. report showed the world's largest economy grew faster than the government estimated.
The ``U.S. economy is looking a lot stronger than expected,'' said Kazunori Ohtomo, who helps manage $1.9 billion at STB Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. Improvements in the global economy are giving more reasons ``for investors to buy stocks.''
Posted 29 February 2004 - 11:48 PM
Sled...what will it look like if they do the 3AM JAM too?
Posted 01 March 2004 - 12:16 AM
Sled is right they are jamming like hell and early too- will it hold??? I doubt it-but right now futures are up big-is it because times are so great?? I'll let you answer that!
Posted 01 March 2004 - 12:34 AM
.....In the central banking equivalent of a scrawled insult on a bathroom wall, Fannie Mae publishes a series of Fannie Mae Papers, an "occasional series on policy issues". These pour contempt on warnings such as Mr Greenspan's. In one such paper from last October, one of Fannie's distinguished contributors, Christopher Culp, wrote about "myths" he cited as a "concern of central bankers" (no names, please). One was that "Fannie Mae's use of derivatives poses systemic risk". Mr Culp, the author of the recent Art of Risk Management, trivializes the risks imposed by the $811bn of notional derivative principal Fannie had on its books last June.
He does touch on Mr Greenspan's real concern: that the counterparties for those derivative contracts are too highly concentrated among a small number of securities houses and banks. But he does so only to dismiss the problem, writing that "these concerns play much more on fear than on any actual empirical evidence legitimating the concern".
The problem with Fannie and Freddie's party line is that there is no "empirical evidence" because history has no precedent for their risk concentration. The failure of Drexel Burnham or Long Term Capital Management's problems, which Mr Culp cites, are two or three orders of magnitude smaller than the mountains of GSE paper.
Mr Greenspan and Mr Mankiw don't think they'll have to bail out Fannie and Freddie. They think they'll have to bail out the half dozen largest swaps and derivatives dealers who are the big banks and investment dealers. In a rapidly rising interest rate environment, the "gamma", or the rate of the rate of increase in their hedging of their obligations to the GSEs, could, or, if you believe the chairman, will, require the Fed to act as the derivatives counterparty of last resort. The math tells him this could be seriously inflationary.
Why the warning now? Here's a thought: the GSEs' purchases of their own mortgage-based securities peaked last summer and have been gently declining since, reducing its requirements for derivatives purchases. However, Fannie has privately been telling bank fixed income securities anal cysts that they intend to start to increase their purchases, and to achieve double-digit portfolio growth for 2004.
I think that talk set off the alarm bells at the White House and the Fed.
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