Show Of Force
243 replies to this topic
Posted 13 February 2004 - 06:06 PM
Contrary "contrary"opinion from my good buddy Bernie Schaeffer:
Sentiment Cited on Wall Street
New York Times
"Americans Pour Money Into Stock Funds in Near Record Amounts"
Brief Summary: Stock inflows returned to the tune of $40 billion last month. The article goes on to discuss the market's performance and several sentiment indicators and cautious outlooks based on those indicators.
It is amazing how prevalent sentiment has become. The Schaeffer's Expectational Analysis® appears to be totally ingrained in the Wall Street lexicon. This article even goes so far as to indicate that mutual fund inflows are bad for the market. "But the inflow of $40.8 billion last month may not be as positive as it appears. Some anal cysts consider it a sign that investors may be too bullish, too willing to expect last year's enormous gains to be repeated." Another indicator that has been receiving a lot of attention recently is the Market Vane Bullish Consensus. An anal cyst who works for Market Vane stated that the indicator "is in what we consider nosebleed territory," said Rich Ishida, senior market anal cyst at Market Vane, which compiles a broad range of market indicators. "We are advising anyone who is real bullish to be cautious." We find it ironic that no mention whatsoever is made of valuations, or expectations for earnings former staples of articles such as these. The article is summed up by the following sentence "Despite the stock gains and all the positive indicators of sentiment, many anal cysts see reasons to be cautious." While we are monitoring these sentiment indicators very closely, it is possible that the uptrend will continue as long as articles such as these are being written.
Posted 13 February 2004 - 06:07 PM
Critically Important Indecipherable Scribbles
...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech
Posted 13 February 2004 - 06:28 PM
Granville on O-Brien now. Bearish until April with Dow as low as 10,000 or even 9,500. Then rally back up until Aug -- then back down again.
Posted 13 February 2004 - 06:31 PM
QQQ target of 11 area is still in play. Multiple patterns on the weekly charts showing 11 as a target if we have seen the top. A weekly close below 36.5 area is confirmation. If you are buying QQQ's below 36.5 area, you are playing with fire, as the 11 area is a LEGITIMATE TARGET.
Sentiment definitely supports this view, as there isn't a trader out there who won't be setting up to buy every single dip we get for the next year.
Posted 13 February 2004 - 06:34 PM
Why must it stop? Every "bum on this planet" that was long U.S. dollars from 95 to 2001 got rich. Maybe bums are just destined to be rich! Let her rip Mr. Greenspan, Hahahahahahaha!!!
Posted 13 February 2004 - 06:43 PM
Joe Granville says lotsa dis-harmony in markets... recommends people set tight stops to let market take them out... He sees DOW going down until April... listen now on Tom O'Brien 5:20pm on replay
everyone's bullish now, alls' aboard already, everyone on 1 side...
thinks' earnings are terrible market timing indicators...
Dow Tranies gave Joe Gran his first sell signal..
only 1 crowd now and crowds can't think out of a paper bag..
high life is back on Wall Street... $5000 champagnes, limos, free spending and stocks dropping on "good" news...
current Wall Street consensus is economy is stronger and stronger, low interest rates, no inflation, and looking for stronger stock prices..
time to do opposite of Fall Street consensus.. Joe's climax indicator says inside health of market is lousy despite bullish price highs..
far too many bulls on Fall Street... waterfall needed to turn them all bearish.. too much of anything guarantees reversal.. too many highs were seen in Mar 2000, too many lows in Oct 2002...
Granville thinks April to August will be UP then Sept to Nov is DOWN..
Joe went bearish on Dec 31st...
Posted 13 February 2004 - 06:55 PM
NOT A PEEP ABOUT THE LONGEST RUNNING TV BULL
HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR 2 MONTHS? Crapvision HIGHEST RATED SHOW
WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?????????????
IS HE DEAD LIKE THE BULL MARKET?
JUST FOUND THIS SNIPIT
With Louis Rukeyser continuing to recuperate from surgery (and looking forward to returning to his television program and his newsletters), Frank Cappiello, chairman and managing director of Montgomery Brothers, Cappiello, L.L.C., pinch-hits this month as guest commentator.
RECUPERATE FROM WHAT? BRAIN DEAD? DID THEY SEW HIS MOUTH SHUT?
REALLY HAVE NOT HEARD A PEEP FROM HIM IN MONTHS?
Posted 13 February 2004 - 07:03 PM
Rukeyser -- HA!
Give him credit for having the occasional bear on and actually letting them say their piece.
Posted 13 February 2004 - 07:05 PM
Probably means nothing but I find it highly unsual to have the market down on a Monday and Friday in the same week. That sure is off pattern from how da boyz have been running things.
Posted 13 February 2004 - 07:06 PM
No selling yet; only a little profit taking on lousy days. Nobody expects the market to tank so nothing really happens. Something huge has to occur for any selling, and not just the traders, but ma and pa suddenly have to feel their money isn't safe otherwise it will be months or years of this.
Went long on PAL at the close.
Posted 13 February 2004 - 07:12 PM
the guy is a complete moron. if he can get a show, any monkey can. he looks like he belongs in a horror movie.
during thanksgiving dinner, someone out of the blue asked me what i thought about rukeyser. i looked up and said, he's a fornicateing numnut. all i saw were dead blank stares and silence, especially on my 70+ inlaws.
my wife and i were laughing hysterically on the way home.
Posted 13 February 2004 - 07:22 PM
Took a trial shot on XLNX short.
But won't press any bets to the downside until the 50-day is broken with force, and the financials start rolling.
Financials held up all day.
Dippers will be coming in with force, so I don't expect any waterfall until later.
Still say we have to hit 1162 on the Spoos before this is over with.
We are too close to back away here without nailing it.
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk
The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!
Posted 13 February 2004 - 07:27 PM
i really don't believe it's going to take a specific event to take this market down.
look back to mar 2000. from mar to may 2000, naz lost 40% from high to low.
no specific event caused that. people were high as a kite, everything in the world was "great" according to the avg joe.
here we are 4 yrs later and despite everything that has occured, corporate corruption, huge deficits, war, etc, etc, and it's like nothing has changed psychologically in the avg joes mind as wild speculation is back. only difference are equity avg's are lower than 4 yrs ago.
i think as was pointed out today about mutual fund inflows will be crucial. the top will come when every last $ is sucked out and into the markets. the 3rd largest monthly inflow every is a sign of a blowoff top. joe and jane always last to the game. they will buy when the feeling is best and that's at the top.
Posted 13 February 2004 - 07:30 PM
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