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B4 The Bell, Frieday, Jan 30


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#16 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:22 AM

"Hello, 911 Emergency Services. How can we assist you?"

"Uncle Buck just fell down the stairs!"

"Is he breathing?"

"Well yes, but barely."

"Are there any broken bones?"

"I'm not sure, but should his leg be wrapped around his head and his foot shoved in his mouth?"

"Uh, no. Is there any bleeding?"

"Plenty, it sure looks like red ink though. Maybe a pen exploded or something. Aunt Fannie says to tell you there's a bigger problem."

"What's that?"

"Uh she says he lost his, uh you know, his boner."

"We'll have our crack Japanese Emergency Team over immediately to administer a massive dose of Viagra. In the meantime, just talk to him and tell him that, everything's ok."

#17

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:27 AM

yobob1

:lol:

#18 Sphinxter

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:27 AM

I kinda liked being inthe back of the bus. Now we're out in the open. We've gone legit!

If you know me, you know I love to abuse myself by actually looking at the GDP reports.

A strange but true affliction.

From the release we have this:

The major contributors to the increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter were personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, equipment and software, inventory investment, and residential fixed investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

    The deceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in PCE, an acceleration in imports, and decelerations in equipment and software and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by an acceleration in exports and an upturn in inventory investment.


So people kept consuming, invetories were built and wee exported more but imports also increased and other things 'decelerated'. Hmmm. I wonder how much?

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 6.9 percent in the third.  Durable goods purchases increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 28.0 percentPCE purchases of motor vehicles decreased in the fourth quarter after increasing in the third.  The fourth-quarter downturn was partly offset by an upturn in motor vehicle inventory investment.


Yep - cars are now piling up in lots all across America. Of interest, is the fact that PCE increased nearly as much as personal income (to the extent that one can trust any of these figures).

I wonder how businesses fared?

The real change in private inventories added 0.61 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP, after subtracting 0.13 percentage point from the third-quarter change.  Private businesses increased inventories $6.1 billion in the fourth quarter, following decreases of $9.1 billion in the third quarter and $4.5 billion in the second


Whoops! That's a massive increase in inventories. That's more consistent with a crappy sales season than a good one. Some of that is undoubtedly due to the auto figures above.

Hey, think we can detect a fall off in the amount of tax monies that people could use to buy crap?

Current-dollar personal income increased $70.1 billion (3.1 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $96.6 billion (4.3 percent) in the third.  Personal current taxes increased $68.3 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $64.2 billion.  The upturn in taxes primarily reflected the drop- off in advance payments of the child tax credit sent to taxpayers in the third quarter as part of the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003.

    Disposable personal income increased $1.7 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of $160.8 billion in the third



Ouch. Ouch. Ouch. Current dolar personal income is declining (note that they measure this in current dolors when it is real dolors that matter). But would you look at the impact the loss of the tax stimulous had on disposable income? That's harsh and, when combined with the PCE increases strongly suggests that people were borrowing heavily again to sustain things.

Yep, that's the case:

The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income --decreased from 2.3 percent in the third quarter to 1.5 percent in the fourth.


How much longer can this go on? Who knows?

Bottom line: There's plenty in here to suggest that things have weakened considerably since Q3 and much of that is due to the effect of stimulous withdrawal. This leaves us with a 2003 GDP of 3.1% of which PCE and government spending were the majority contributors.

Sustainable?

Not without job creation or simple money printing.

#19 DrStool

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:29 AM

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#20 machinehead

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:30 AM

Every currency crisis that I know of was preceded by desperate attempts to defend the currency by hiking short-term rates.

The first tiny baby step in that direction was taken Wednesday, when Johnny Law II admitted that rates might rise 'someday' instead of 'never.' The dollar popped for less than 48 hours. Now it's same old, same old again.

I don't think the dollar will stabilize till the Fed funds rate hits 5%. By that time, the carry trade will be in ruins, and the Dow will have retested its Oct. 2002 low (maybe not successfully, either).

* sigh *

It's gonna be a long year.

How about "indetermiflation," yobob? Is that neutral enough for you?
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#21 brian4

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:31 AM

Morning Gang- there is a turn 2 minutes after the open-YoBob I had the same thought you expressed-here's hopin-Sphinx yes your numbers were good. ;)

#22 brian4

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:37 AM

Brian liked that turn! :P

#23 machinehead

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:39 AM

Brian liked that turn! :P

It stayed below your stop, as you were saying yesterday.

Now can it take out Thursday's low? That would pretty bearish, wouldn't it?
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#24 brian4

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:44 AM

I'd love for that to happen MH-it's early but so far so good.

#25 soup

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:50 AM

Morning, one needs a roadmap to get around this place. I think I have 5 stool windows open.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#26 brian4

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:52 AM

No turn for about 35 minutes so there is no pressure on the pig-if it stays weak and we get a bad number-hoo boy! ;)

#27 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:55 AM

Every currency crisis that I know of was preceded by desperate attempts to defend the currency by hiking short-term rates.

I don't think this really going to be like any currency crisis we've ever seen. We're talking the world's reserve currency here. And no this is not 1987. Al cannot raise rates. Period. Doing so would implode the whole economy in a very quick fashion.

The first tiny baby step in that direction was taken Wednesday, when Johnny Law II admitted that rates might rise 'someday' instead of 'never.' The dollar popped for less than 48 hours. Now it's same old, same old again.

I really think people are putting way too much emphasis on trying to parse every mumble out of the Feed. Analyzed as simple language there really is no difference in any of the Feed's recent statements.

I don't think the dollar will stabilize till the Fed funds rate hits 5%. By that time, the carry trade will be in ruins, and the Dow will have retested its Oct. 2002 low (maybe not successfully, either).

A simple uptick to 2% would be enough to cause an almost immediate implosion. the rates have been low enough , long enough to cause major misallocations. Businesses are used to the 1% forever rate, which is the key determinent of the prime rate which is what most business loans (and many consumer revolving loans) are pegged to on a floating basis. Contrary to conventional thinking, inventories at the retail level are not low and most are financed. Current operations are based on current rates. A simple doubling of the fed rate would cause an aprox 25% increase in money costs. That will be lethal to many businesses whose profit margins are already pushed to the brink.

* sigh *

It's gonna be a long year.

How about "indetermiflation," yobob? Is that neutral enough for you?

Thanks, but I'll stick with my indestagflation

#28 machinehead

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:59 AM

How about "indetermiflation," yobob? Is that neutral enough for you?

Thanks, but I'll stick with my indestagflation

Well, I don't know whether it's indetermiflation or indestagflation.

But it's definitely getting worse. :D
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#29 Tchaikofsky

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 11:02 AM

Well, I don't know whether it's indetermiflation or indestagflation.

But it's definitely getting worse. :D

Sounds like "phonics with Don King". :huh:

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 11:04 AM

Consumer sentiment improves in late Jan. By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Consumer sentiment improved slightly in late January, according to a survey released Friday by the University of Michigan. The UMich consumer sentiment index improved to 103.8 in January from 103.2 in the preliminary January reading, media sources said. The index stood at 92.6 in December. The increase was unexpected. Economists were expecting a decrease to about 102.9.





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