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B4 The Bell, Frieday, Jan 30


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#1 Hiding Bear

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 08:10 AM

Welcome and Good Morning! Whatís B4 The Bell about?

Sherlockonline said:

How about a 24-hr International Family Lounge???

Lots of Mutual Respect!!

Trading as a central theme and whatever people think affects that. :D

Doc said:

I think this is great. The forum will be open for free flowing discussion formatted in a single daily thread. The no flaming and no hate speech rules will be enforced. Other than that anything goes. Whoever wants to be a moderator let me know. :D


Now on to a quick review of BOJís dollar intervention:

TOKYO -- Japan's government spent Y7.155 trillion intervening in the foreign exchange market in January, as it struggled to keep the yen from rising too sharply, Ministry of Finance data released Friday show.
The amount for January was a record for a single month, far outstripping the previous monthly record of Y5.112 trillion set in September. It also comes on the heels of a record Y20.057 spent during 2003, which was almost triple the last annual record amount of Y7.64 trillion in 1999.
The sheer force of Tokyo's intervention shows just how determined the government is to keep a strong yen from undermining exports, one of the main drivers of Japan's current economic recovery. But despite the intervention, the dollar continues to slump as investors sell the greenback amid concerns over the U.S. twin current account and budget deficits and fears over possible global terrorism attacks.


Translation: There was about $70 billion in intervention by the BOJ during January. Instead of financing these dollar purchase with special sterilization yen bill t-bill issues to buy the $s, they went ahead and bought them with new fiat yen. However it is guessed at this point they the BOJ sold an amount of Japanese t-bills from its account equal to about half its $ purchases.

So in other words the BOJ balance sheet went up by $70 billion US Treasury bills and about $35 in Japanese t-bills or Japanese repos were sold. We will know more about this in a few days.

#2 Sphinxter

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 08:42 AM

Good morning all!

Not much conviction in the euro one way or the other this morning.

Posted Image


Speaking of the Yen, I am continually amazed at how it clearly wants to strengthen (go down in this reverse graph format). $70B - are you kidding me? Who, I ask, is on the other side of those trades? Who is continually buying that many Yen? Presumably to strengthen the Yen more than $70B has been absorbed by some collection of other parties.

Posted Image

If it looks to you like this gold chart is the exact invert of the euro chart - you'd be correct! All gold is, is a form of money. This is why it trades like one. Barbaric relic my a$$. If it's so barbaric why do the CBs hold so much of it and manipulate its price on a daily basis?

Posted Image


The USD almost got to it's 50 dma last night. Came within 0.10 before bouncing down. I expect this behavior to continue for a while - possibly a week or two. Or three. Dolor 'corrections' tend to take 1.5 months to resolve before the next down leg. At least that been true for the six pauses we've experienced during the run down from 2001. We are about 3 weeks into this one. Further, expect the euro to remain weak until at least after the G7 meeting on Feb 6-7. Choppy trading until then should be the rule of the day. Some people I talk with are giddy with the thought that we've ended the dolor down phase and are now on a secular up phase. I think they are smoking crack. Go to stockchart.com and type in $usd and you will see that there's nothing to indicate this is remotely the possiblility. We are still a long way from the 200 dma and we have a US budget deficit that Bu$h's own office now says may top $521B. Sheesh.

Posted Image

#3 Sphinxter

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 08:49 AM

Not much conviction in the futures.

As always, there's the usual 3 a.m. hijinks but less so than 'normal'.

Posted Image


Even though this chart shows about + 1.5 SNP points fair value to cash is -1.14 so this is really showing us a wash I wouuld suppose.

Is that about right B4?

#4 Butterfield 8

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 09:11 AM

There are a number of possible CB actions that could move the dollar up - none of them related to US deficits.

#5 DrStool

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 09:31 AM

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#6 DrStool

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 09:32 AM

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#7 Sphinxter

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 09:36 AM

Whoops! If you haven't hit re-fresh, do so and take a look a the euro.

Straight up a cliff!

Gold will follow.


Edit:

Oh, yeah, I shoulda remembered. Here it is:

GDP slower than expected

Fourth-quarter rate of growth in broadest measure of economy healthy at 4%, but half of 3Q's pace.
January 30, 2004: 8:33 AM EST



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The U.S. economy followed up a strong third quarter of 2003 with another healthy growth rate in the fourth quarter, the government said Friday, but the pace fell short of Wall Street estimates.

Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic activity, grew at a 4 percent annualized rate in the quarter after growing at an 8.2 percent pace in the third, the Commerce Department reported. Economists, on average, expected GDP growth of 5 percent, according to Briefing.com.



#8 Sphinxter

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 09:40 AM

There are a number of possible CB actions that could move the dollar up - none of them related to US deficits.

Agreed but not forever.

Fundamentals of the market will always overwhelm interventionist tactics.

I believe Japan is discovering this right now.

sooner or later they will haveto abandon their propping. When they do, look for the Yen to achieve nad possibly break the 100 handle and for the BoJ to suffer some pretty significant trading losses.

The $1T +++ USA twin deficits are F.u.n.d.a.m.e.n.t.a.l.

The only preventative of dolor collapse has been asian currency intervention.

When that stops (not if, IMHO, but when), look out.

#9 DrStool

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 09:41 AM

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#10 Sphinxter

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:00 AM

Nice stick save on the futures there!

Excellent work, boys.

#11 The brown one

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:06 AM

Love the use of language by these spinners!

U.S. Q4 GDP slows to 4%, missing 4.9% expectations By Rex Nutting
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. economic growth slowed to a more-sustainable but still-robust 4 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter from a steamy 8.2 percent in the third quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Economists were looking for growth of about 4.9 percent. Consumer spending, business investment and government spending all slowed from the third quarter's frenetic pace. For all of 2003, gross domestic product increased 3.1 percent, the fastest since 2000. The core personal consumption expenditure price index increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the lowest quarterly gain since 1962, and just 1.2 percent for the year, matching a 38-year low.


More-sustainable but still robust!
Steamy!
Frenetic!

So,I guess that last quarter's rise was just a bit sordid and that this quarter's figures are ---SALUBRIOUS.Tanks Aussie--good word!

#12 Guest_yobob1_*

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:06 AM

Morning all. I hope our sanction and discovery doesn't muck up the works.

The GDP at 4% annualized means 1% this past quarter. Subtract the hedonics and govt.s spending and I'll bet you we actually will find a contraction.

This should help those mortgage payments:

A record-high 375,000 jobless workers will exhaust their unemployment insurance this month and an estimated 2 million workers will find themselves in the same predicament during the first half of the year, according to an analysis of Labor Department statistics by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.  ...

The center's report said the 375,000 workers who will draw their last jobless check this month is the highest number for January in the three decades that the statistics have been tracked.


Record Number to Run Out of Unemployment Benefits

The running dialogue on inflation/deflation while amusing is getting a little stale. There will be no converts on either side it appears, so until reality settles the argument (which will be deflation first by the way :lol: ) I suggest we use the term indestagflation to describe the current environment. Can't we all just get along?? :lol:

#13 machinehead

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:09 AM

The White House has concluded that adding prescription drug benefits to Medicare will cost one-third more than the $400 billion advertised by Congress and the administration when President Bush signed the bill into law less than two months ago, federal sources said yesterday.


Ha ha ha. So we made a little $134 billion mistake. What's it to you?

SUCK-ERRRS
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#14 HiHat

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:19 AM

Looks to be it's going to be one of those indecision chop around
days.........lot of crosscurrents

1139.50........10 EMA....Bias going SHORT....for rallies under this

#15 HiHat

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:21 AM

Anymore serious weakness in NAZ 100...is gonna cause probs in SnP land





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