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#61

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:49 PM

Hyper:

When I met with Doc a few months ago for a couple cocktails, the main thing we agreed upon seems to be what most of us here have in common...which I summed up in this way:

"The only thing more costly than being wrong, is being right...too soon."

Your credibility is at no risk among this group. We all share the same disease...a vision of trends that help to foretell how things will be in the future, with an assumption that it will come soon...if only because we can see it so clearly.

We're all in the same boat with you.

#62 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:55 PM

Brian,

Interesting set-up, hope it works out for you. NO top picking from me yet!

I do think the miners have more downside and definitely much longer "cause building" (into March) before they take off again.

See how much bounce for the ounce we get right here but I am not buying!

Hank

#63 BigWave

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:00 PM

There is a new outfit advertising on radio here in L.A.

Some kind of lender that gives you "cash advances" against lawsuit proceeds if you are currently involved in a "Hail Mary" litigation.

Basically, they will loan you money, secured by the "pro-forma expected payout" from an ambulance chaser.

You must be involved in a lawsuit with a big name attorney where a substantial damage award is very likely in order to qualify.

1-800-LAW-CASH is their number, I think........

No doubt, Wall Struck dealmakers will find a way to securitize this crap......

Speaking of radio ads, there was an ad this AM touting a seminar on how to negotiate with your creditors if your house is being foreclosed. Included "secret" strategies to postpone and even defeat the foreclosure (not by paying it off)...also repair credit in the process..

A new scam surfaces everyday..

#64 Guest_Icky Twerp_*

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:04 PM

Where is Grand PooperCycle?

May the anti-matrix bless our Gann Fan Plans... :lol:

#65 FeedFool

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:08 PM

http://stoolcities.c...gif Click here

It feels and look like Bubble 1, Soon we will find out big itís going to be.

Is this the Final rocket launch???

#66 Pee Brain

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:09 PM

Scenario that would harm the most participants is a crash, as bulls have NO inclination to sell at any price and bears will probably never short again.


scottcardiff,

arent those prerequesites for a crash. if there were a bunch of shorts, at least there would be some cover-buying....

i was out all day - cant belive that list of top % gainers.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#67 brian4

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:10 PM

Hank I'm not trying to pick a top here although it could BE one-I do think a sharp correction of say a 100 points on the Spoo's is long overdue and this may well be it and then up and away-I agree with you on the Miners and appreciate your work-Cheers-Brian B)

#68 Hiding Bear

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:18 PM

Mark - tanks for another interesting and informative daily recap.

I agree with what Merciless and Hihat say. We may not be able to sell short before the next market decline - if its going to be a big one. Just shut down the internet, hold back orders for a few days or a week due to some type of emergency, and then re-open at a lower level. One person in a thousand will be lucky enough to catch the move in time, most likely some Aussie or Euro Stoolie who doesn't sleep at night! :D

Letís take another look at todayís Fedspeak* by Federal Reserve President William Poole:

*Fedspeak - an Orwellian use of doublespeak plus technical sounding terms meant to confuse.

The Beige Book that came out suggests there's a lot of strengthening in business activity. So the payroll number is an anomaly, and whether there's an issue with the data or whether there's really something going on there, there's no way to tell right now."

Translation: All negative news should be ignored, just-think-positive.

Poole said, "One possibility, and it's one where we have to keep an open mind, is that firms are very, very cautious - maybe they don't see the strength of orders going forward that we think they see, and therefore they're not hiring in anticipation of the need for more people in the workforce."

Translation: Keep your mind open to the just-thinkĖpositive mantra. 24/7 Fed bull horning about an economic recovery has failed to convince the manufacturing sector to make anticipatory hiring. (Make a note - more media indoctrination will be forthcoming).

"Central banks wouldn't be placing funds in dollars if they didn't have confidence in the U.S.," he said. "They could intervene in other currencies - they don't have to intervene in the dollar. The fact that they intervene in the dollar is one of the signs of the strength of our financial system."

Translation: Weakness is strength.

The St. Louis Fed president highlighted what he said was another unusual event as well, in the fact that the money supply has been falling since mid-August. "That's a very strange occurrence at a time of vigorous growth, to have a decline in the money stock," he said.

Translation: All negative news should be ignored, just-think-positive.

I also thank Mark and Hypertiger again for their inspiration.

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#69 FeedFool

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:20 PM

Brian,

Interesting set-up, hope it works out for you. NO top picking from me yet!

I do think the miners have more downside and definitely much longer "cause building" (into March) before they take off again.

See how much bounce for the ounce we get right here but I am not buying!

Hank

Bush Moon plan??

Is Tech going for a moon landing?

Agree that gold is consolidations; more down move can be expected.

#70 MrHanky

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:32 PM

The craziest thing about the mortgage markets and interest rates is the fact that most people pay 95% interest,not 5% or 6%.People refinance and flip properties so much that all they pay is interest.when I bought my last house I was paying a $1,300.00 payment where less than $100.00 was going to principle.
People think they get a bargain refinancing,all it does is make the bankers rich.even if mortgage rates go to 4%,people keep paying all interest because the keep refinancing and starting all over.

Your only really paying 5% if you hold the mortgage a full 30 years.If you only hold the loan for a few years your probably paying 90-95% interest.the if they had a simple interest mortgage it would be a different story.

mortgage free and much happier here.

Nothing


#71 BarBu

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:35 PM

Posted on: Dec 6 2003, 01:57 PM
On December 03, 2003, Nutsduck hits 2000.92; It is a perfect 50% retracement off the 2001 January rally.......an good odd the Post IRAQ war rally Top has been set; If not, the high may be set in between 2000-2140. Only time will tell.


Recap:
The length from 1108 to 1521 is 413, but the length from 1521 to 1253 (low in March 2003) does not fit any FIB number, which makes the projection difficult; With different calculations, I got 2078, 2134, and 2151; so this is why I picked a guess number 2140. if this guess fails..... next number is above 2300...... sigh!

#72 Pee Brain

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:37 PM

Raising prices is easy. Creating wealth is a little more difficult. Stop confusing the two. :P


thats the social paradox... if you dont own a home (preferably in socal), you dont get the equity float and lower interest payments. if you are not in the market, you dont get the equity float and its gotta feel like you are standing outside in the rain peeing through the curtains at the party goers celebrating. so for the bottom 1/3rd, its gonna be hell, 'cuase alotta what i buy day-to-day is getting more expensive. purchasing power is the key focus... retaining purchasing power.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#73 Pee Brain

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:39 PM

To a non-American you don't know just how absurd this is.

When will the sleazy pursuit of money at all costs end?

I'd say that in most of the civilised world if you announced to your family and friends that this is your job or the company you own and they would truly be shocked and horrified.

But in the good ol' US anything that makes a buck is good business.

The Dollar in yourpocket justifies the means, so to speak.


i think they already cashed out the State of California and their tobacco dough :lol:

big discount too! :o
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#74 wndysrf

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:46 PM

Remember how the S & P was flatlining last month?

Remember how Tim Wood was pounding the table that the internals were weakening?

Remember how we suddenly broke out to the upside, volume picked up huge, and the internals dramatically took a turn for the upside?

Notice how ever since then, we have seen a large number of individual stocks breaking out on big volume to 52-week highs, 2-year highs, or all time highs?

Its no accident.

As you can see, the 200-week moving average on the weekly coincided with 1065, the 38.2% retrace from the March 2000 top to the October low.

Everything turned when we broke above the line.

Its the simplest of all market timing vehicles. Bullish above the line, bearish below it.

A Bull Market has been confirmed. "Cyclical" or "New", it doesn't matter.

Welcome to the Merval Economy.

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#75 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 16 January 2004 - 08:54 PM

Brian, you make a good case for a potential top. I have tomorrow as a potential time target based on the July 24, 02 low, so give or take a couple of days, it's also nicely in the range for a possible major top.

Gann aside though, at EOD my model gave a "close dongs, go flat" signal on the ndx and a potential short on the spx. The latter has pretty decent odds of panning out, if not immediately, then within the next couple of days, so it's heartening to read that you came to the same conclusion. While I am keen to short at this point, my calculations didn't show the market as sufficiently technically overbought to warrant a position. So I'm not putting on any shorts other than high-odds overnight scalps until the trend turns around.





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