Way Too Big To Fail
569 replies to this topic
Posted 16 January 2004 - 06:56 PM
Man, the day finally came. It seems most here have this thing down as a fete compli eh?
Moonshot is what we call it on the floor. And looking at these financials which have gone into a new stratosphere in the past year tells me something is real ugly in Denmark.
When you see bankers doing "stock" deals that should be a big enough red flag to make even Greenie pause, but no. Upward and onward with the great Hoax! Why?
If you could arbitrage $60Billion dollars cash wouldn't you?
You go out and borrow $60Billion at say uummm 5% maybe 6% then you strain of, strangle out or simply press the costs out of the mix. Let's say your combined company even increase 10% in a year - well folks that's $14 billion bucks which as long as you could earn your 6% is called free money. Plus you get the writeoff!!! A gift!! So why do a stock dilutive deal? Hmmm... gee you think rates are going lower???????
bwahahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahaha - pricks.
when was the last time Harrison et al made a good decision? Business decision?
Says it all in my book. These guys called the top in the internet I/B bubble in 99/00 and now they are unwittingly calling the top for John Q and his refi piggy bank tucked in beside him on the passenger seat of his zero percent financed F150. Thanks Billy, you're the best kid, the BEST!!!
The worst part is to see so many stoolies jumping on this thing, cause when it turns there wont be a cable/dsl/t1 line fast enough to get you the fornicate out of the trade, I see black screens in the near future. Like you know when the screen just goes ....black.... yeah, like that.
Look at the retailers, S, KSS and TGT there are listless floating carcasses imho, much like this pos economy.
The thing I love about the retail trade is its so hard to fake it, the number that is. And those graphs sure look real as hell to me.
Easy daytrippers, evening here in he Keys and my butterfly chops are calling.
stay nimble stay focused and hey smoke 'em
so says I,
Posted 16 January 2004 - 06:57 PM
Perhaps you underestimated the matrix's ability/need to suck more debt-holders in.
Stretched out mortgage payments.
Empire building overseas, both corporate and government-based.
It's pretty evident that all methods available have been/will be used to insure that debt-riddled homeowners NEVER see a downtick in their net worth again.
When was the last time an area saw a 10% decline in housing? Think about what that would do to the economy. All recent buyers would be out all equity, some would be in reverse-equity situations. The economy would halt.
What happened here in SoCal in the 1989-1995 period was quite the shitstorm from what I understand, and that was 6 years of steady prices. The fed's finally got that bailed out by lowering rates, but that created the telecom bubble. Now that the telecom industry has been saved, you've got SoCal home prices up over 100% the last 5 years.
Hyper, your basic argument relies on the expectation that consumers will stop signing on the dotted line. With what we've seen over the past 4 years (historical drops in interest rates), why can't the following occur?
A 10% annual increase in housing prices here in San Diego county as an example could transpire with minimal payment growth as follows:
Year Median price Interest rate Payment
2003 $420K 5.9 $2237
2008 $615K 4.1/35 yrs $2484
2012 $900K 3.5/50 yrs $2861
Obviously SoCal is seeing tremendous real estate appreciation due to the Fed's attempts to ward off depression in other parts of the country (manufacturing and tech-centric locations such as Bay Area/Colorado/Oregon/Texas/Midwest etc). As people continue to leave these areas looking for work, all efforts must be made to float the housing market in these locations. This results in parabolic increases in healthy economies such as SoCal, which benefit from basing their entire economies on building, finance and speculation (biotechs/entertainment) and derivative businesses.
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:04 PM
What we have here is manic madness backed by debt backed by debt backed by a housing bubble. It appears as though people have refied their homes in order to purchase large screen TVs that were manufactured elsewhere, and purchased stock on margin using that money. Of course, they are borrowing more against their credit cards too. I would bet it's almost all non self liquidating debt, so its a gigantic millstone around the neck of the overextended american consumer. This can only end badly.
Data came from Economagic.
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:06 PM
HT, your credibility will not be shot. It takes big, bright, shiny brass one's to name a date and situation. Even happens to board managers. I do not doubt the scenario you have laid out one bit. Options are difficult to trade because you have to get two things right: direction and time.
HT, my friend, I know you are right, heck even, most everyone on this board that is a bear knows you are right. It is just a matter of time.
I've been in bearx since mar '03 @$7.22. I could have sold it or hedged with some longs SPY, but I chose not to. Eff 'em. When our turn comes again, we will be shaking our head wishing it wasn't 'so' bad.
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:10 PM
wndysrf-A PROFOUND POST ABOUT SHAKEOUTS
I, TOO, NOTED THE OIL ACTION yesterday and today--do you think gold and/or silver may qualify for such a scenario?--we had a prettty violent 3 day shake-out this week--the CRB had a decent opo today-copper has held up during the PM shake out--Someone posted on Murphy's dite about silver pulling back in 1978 then launching:
How fascinating these markets are! Did you get Hoye's reports today? What an interesting perspective! He likens this gold market to the late 1978 market when gold did the exact same thing, from $250 to 190 with huge gaps down. Silver had the same kind of break out and then fell to $5.50 and up to $9 in three or four months and $50 in a year and a half. And then from the bottom, we began the fantastic run up. This thing is all set up. We might need a rally and then a final test. Who knows?
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:11 PM
merciless........I buy black screens.........
Will Not be considered Crash..........rather a re-evaluation.
JP Morgan at everyones service....buy it all up low............
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:12 PM
Raising prices is easy. Creating wealth is a little more difficult. Stop confusing the two.
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:14 PM
MARK-PMs might just catch a bid on the inflation theme no matter what the dollar does
Look at the short squeeze in lumber-!
Lumber(CME) Mar 347.0 356.5 345.1 356.1s +13.9
Silver(CMX) Mar 620.5 634.0 620.0 633.0s +11.7
Platinum(NYM) Apr 838.0 852.5 840.0 851.9s +3.0
Palladium(NYME) Mar 212.50 219.80 212.00 219.65s +4.00
Copper(CMX) Mar 108.50 109.70 108.40 109.40s +1.00
Crude Oil(NYM) Feb 34.90 35.30 33.44 35.07s +1.63
Heating Oil(NYM) Feb 97.80 98.50 93.85 98.06s +5.07
Unleaded Gas(NYM) Feb 99.30 100.00 94.00 99.52s +6.23
Natural Gas(NYM) Feb 5.920 6.040 5.870 5.940s +0.095
Coffee "C"(NYBOT) Mar 69.60 71.40 69.60 71.15s +1.60
Orange Juice(NYBOT) Mar 66.00 66.55 66.00 66.40s +0.75
Cotton(NYBOT) Mar 74.90 75.10 74.05 74.72s +0.23
Lumber(CME) Mar 347.0 356.5 345.1 356.1s +13.9
Lumber(CME) May 346.4 350.0 346.0 349.9s +6.8
Live Cattle(CME) Jan 80.500 82.400 80.500 82.400s +2.300
Lean Hogs(CME) Jun 63.200 63.980 63.000 63.880s +1.150
Wheat(CBOT) May 387.00 403.50 387.00 402.00 +11.25
Corn(CBOT) May 272.50 277.50 270.25 276.75s +4.25
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:21 PM
Good to hear from you Merciless, we're running low on bears in here
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:21 PM
Correct, we are at precisely the 3rd 360* cycle up from Oct 2002 Low = 1139.
These are very high probability levels for MAJOR reversal.
The HUI and XAU both double topped right on their respective 360* levels, see my other posts.
Usually there is a "false break" above and then failure to find support from it, but usually there are other technical non-confirmations in place helping to anticipate the outcome. I do not see ANY here so far.
Chart is 90* increments, bold lines the 360*:
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:26 PM
To a non-American you don't know just how absurd this is.
When will the sleazy pursuit of money at all costs end?
I'd say that in most of the civilised world if you announced to your family and friends that this is your job or the company you own and they would truly be shocked and horrified.
But in the good ol' US anything that makes a buck is good business.
The Dollar in yourpocket justifies the means, so to speak.
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:28 PM
Interesting a few weeks ago I was looking at the outstanding option contracts on GG. The front month (jan) contracts at the time had a extremely large number of contracts in the money, specifically, the 12.5 and 15 calls, thousands....one of the many reasons I didnt buy as much in the 15-16 range....expected a significant pullback, and low and behold this week all those call holders got reamed....only on wall struck, uptrend resumes soon on the golds...and dont expect all those calls at 1100-1150 to finish in the money in Feb........trade safe
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"
NC STATE UNIVERSITY
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:32 PM
You are one of the few with any credbility..You have researched this mess to your own self ruin and you are among friends here..Nobody knows when this ends, but it will end badly..
Keep firing away..
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:38 PM
I don't see any signs of this rally ending here.
Sorry bears I think we will see @1160 and rally on into March.
Posted 16 January 2004 - 07:44 PM
MWH- the Gann info came from a fellow in my trading room who has been there about a year, he's a good trader and very close mouthed doesn't chatter like the rest of us, 3 months ago he said the rally would top at 1139 we all laughed and said ya right, it's going that high is it?? He never mentioned it again and we had all forgotten about it until 1139 was hit and he suddenly went hip deep in puts. He then jogged our memories and told us for the first time what it meant in Gann theory. Now what is interesting here is that the next Bradley turning point Jan.19-21 and the next trading day Tuesday is the 20th.. With the Bradley what is key is do we go in to the date on a High or a Low in this case it's a high so we should turn down. The Bradley has been spot on the last few turns. In my own work I have 1139-1142 as BOTH the weekly and monthly projected resistance highs and that is as rare as hens teeth plus my favorite E waver went short yesterday at 1133 stop 1142.50 different methodologies appear to be aligning here-I like that and yes I took the trade-Trade Safe!
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