Way Too Big To Fail
569 replies to this topic
Posted 19 January 2004 - 09:32 PM
In many ways, there is an important analogy of January 2004 to August 1987. In August 1987, gold mining shares began a correction from all-time peaks which would cause them to decline 40% by November. The Nasdaq also dropped around 40% over the same period of time. Both then had a modest bounce thereafter. The major difference between these two groups was that gold shares continued generally downward for another 13 years, whereas the Nasdaq had suffered only a brief correction in a bull market which would last another 13 years. Now we are probably at the opposite juncture. The Nasdaq's upcoming correction will probably be followed by a downturn which could last for perhaps a decade, while the likely correction in gold shares over the next several months will be merely a typical pullback in the context of a long-term strong bull market which could continue for another decade or more.
As gold shares drop, the Nasdaq will decline more or less in tandem. This has not happened yet, with the Nasdaq continuing to set new 2-1/2 year highs almost daily, although given their very close correlation over the past few years, the Nasdaq will most likely soon follow gold to the downside. I had not anticipated correctly that the Nasdaq would almost double from its October 2002 bottom. It should be kept in mind that an investor in Paris or Rome or Dubai or Johannesburg or Toronto has been generally unimpressed with the rallies in U.S. equities and in gold. Gold has actually been flat in terms of most world currencies since the summer of 2001, while the U.S. financial markets, although certainly higher in U.S. dollar terms, are little changed in terms of most world currencies. Therefore, as the U.S. dollar stages a typical seasonal rebound, made more likely by a nearly unanimous consensus that the greenback is hopeless, the U.S. financial markets will continue to remain flat in terms of other currencies, which means that they will decline in nominal U.S. dollar terms. U.S. Treasuries will likely be one of the greatest beneficiaries of a rising dollar and money exiting equities; the near consensus bearishness toward bonds is likely to be fooled, at least in the short run.
Posted 19 January 2004 - 09:44 PM
GLOBEX.........ESnP........1138.75......up now .75pt.
starting to get a little juice flowing.
Posted 19 January 2004 - 10:10 PM
Bought a few more double eagles today-the seller laughed when I said I was getting dollars out of the matrix
In re real estate-first unsolicited call from an agent in YEARS wanting to show me property........High end in Palm Beach County (over 1mil) is down 10 %. My gut tells me it will spill downward to mid-range. I remember a friend in Beantown in early 90's going to foreclosure sales with 50k cash & buying 2 houses as potential rental income. He made a ton....
Posted 19 January 2004 - 10:18 PM
" . . . Living proof of how powerful love and attention can be."
What the prisoners do for these cell dogs and what the dogs do for these hardened convicts is nothing short of AWESOME, with tonight's Warm Springs episode featuring three five-week old and five four-day old puppies, all abandoned, entrusted to two of the men.
The prison system should have implemented this a long time ago, but better late than never. Take some time off to see this, it is a very humanizing experience. The episode repeats three more times, starting tonight, as follows:
January 19: 11:00PM
January 20: 3:00AM
January 25: 5:00PM
Posted 19 January 2004 - 11:00 PM
Introducing the pro forma employment number: x jobs added, excluding y jobs sent overseas and z jobs included from prior announcements just in case you forgot...
There's some serious sh*t going on at IBM, no bout a doubt it. Not ready to short it (again) yet, though.
I think there was some trepidation in the futures re: possible Dean win. Wall Street can live with Kerry and Edwards; futures will be playing Happy Daze by morning; Hail to the Chief as encore.
Same chit, different day.
Posted 19 January 2004 - 11:31 PM
HP hints broadly at Opteron servers
This article aslo hints Dell will sell AMD machines.
Intel is just lagging in the "new idea" department, very strange. Takes 2 years to bring anything new to market in the computer chip biz.
Intel is going to rely on a shrinking of their current chips and glue more cache on them as a bandaid fix with some special instruction. Cost of chip will go up leaving smaller profit margin.
IBM leads in patent department again last year and will bring 30% of these new patents to use in products this year.
AMD's 64 chip and memory innovations will drive prices down, so relying on volume to carry the trend. Cell phones, servers, laptops should sell well if not here in China and Japan.
Microsoft is scared to death of Linux
Go ahead, void the warranty...
Posted 19 January 2004 - 11:34 PM
TOKYO, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Japan Air System (JAS), a unit of Japan Airlines System Corp (Tokyo:9205.T - News), said it had cancelled another 95 domestic flights on Tuesday because of inspections needed after it found cracks in engines made by Pratt & Whitney
Posted 19 January 2004 - 11:37 PM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Providian Financial Corp. (NYSE:PVN - News) on Monday posted a fivefold jump in fourth-quarter earnings as the credit card issuer moves its business away from targeting customers with poor credit histories, and said it sees 2004 earnings "roughly" in line with expectations.
Posted 19 January 2004 - 11:41 PM
TORONTO (Reuters) - With fast food coming under fire from groups as diverse as documentary film makers, health advocates and the overweight, McDonald's Restaurants of Canada Ltd. said on Monday it will list the calories in all the food it sells and offer Canadians a new, lighter menu.
Well, there goes the poutine
(fries smothered in gravy & cheese)
Posted 19 January 2004 - 11:43 PM
ALGIERS, Jan 19 (Reuters) - A powerful explosion on Monday at Algeria's largest refinery and key exporter of gas and oil in the Mediterranean port city of Skikda killed 13 workers and caused extensive damage. At least 74 people were injured in the blast at the petrochemical complex in the industrial zone of Skikda some 500 km (310 miles) east of the capital Algiers, the state radio said, citing the latest official toll.
Posted 19 January 2004 - 11:59 PM
Now watch it Sled that poutine crack will upset the Quebecers who are Francais-reminds me of the story about the ocean liner sinking and the Canadian Capt. said women and children first, the Murican First Mate said screw the women and jumped in the Life Boat-the French Second Mate looked at both of them and said " Do you think we will have enough time" Trade Safe!
Posted 20 January 2004 - 12:06 AM
I like Poutine, It's like viagra for the arteries.
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