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Apology Demanded


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#31 Sphinxter

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:09 AM

How about too much liquidity sloshing around + classic end of cycle inventory stockpiling?

I don't follow.

Also, compare the daily charts of Silver and gold to copper and aluminum and you don't see a synchronous trading pattern.

#32 Hiding Bear

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:12 AM

I think I and perhaps 1 or 2 others in the markets may well be the only metal bulls left?

All the others reckon they've got the skill, luck and smarts to get in and out at the right times.

All I can say is good luck to both sides because we're all in need of it.

I bought of number of gold/silver issues at rock bottom in 2002, only to sell most of them too early and watch them double again. I'm buying a little more today, as I feel this last wave is not finished until we see an important forex event - like the China revaluation or intervention for the $ by the Fed. Good luck to you PM traders, you're better than me at this.

#33 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:13 AM

I bought of number of gold/silver issues at rock bottom in 2002, only to sell most of them too early and watch them double again. I'm buying a little more today, as I feel this last wave is not finished until we see an important forex event - like the China revaluation or intervention for the $ by the Fed. Good luck to you PM traders, you're better than me at this.

you'll see gold lead in 2004, just not til feb.

#34 scottcardiff

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:15 AM

This US Peso bounce at these levels was predictable two months ago when the Oct./Nov. US Peso rally failed.

All the fibs from the top projected 84.5-85.5 as a low.

My best guess at this point, assuming that this low holds, is a rally in the US Peso to the 98-100 level.

However, be aware, all time highs in the dollar is a possibility, as this drop to 85 MAY JUST BE A HIGHER LOW on the monthly chart (higher than 80 from years ago).

One of the hardest things to comprehend is how the US Peso could go to all time highs. The mere fact that it seems impossible should be a MAJOR WAKE UP CALL to those long gold or short the US Peso.

Use a stop. Get back in to the market if this bounce fails, etc.

If this low holds, new lows in gold/highs in the US Peso ARE A POSSIBILITY.

#35 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:17 AM

This US Peso bounce at these levels was predictable two months ago when the Oct./Nov. US Peso rally failed.

All the fibs from the top projected 84.5-85.5 as a low.

My best guess at this point, assuming that this low holds, is a rally in the US Peso to the 98-100 level.

However, be aware, all time highs in the dollar is a possibility, as this drop to 85 MAY JUST BE A HIGHER LOW on the monthly chart (higher than 80 from years ago).

One of the hardest things to comprehend is how the US Peso could go to all time highs. The mere fact that it seems impossible should be a MAJOR WAKE UP CALL to those long gold or short the US Peso.

Use a stop. Get back in to the market if this bounce fails, etc.

If this low holds, new lows in gold/highs in the US Peso ARE A POSSIBILITY.

scott, 77 is wide open. 86.88 to 88 a top in uncle buck...

you aint seen nothing yet.

for three years i haven't missed a dollar call, banked forex trades for 38 months running. without one ill fated trade.

battin ave = 1000

you'll seee 80 so fast yer head will spin.

tick tock.

dont drinkie da kewlaid, it's tainted.

#36 DrStool

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:19 AM

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#37 Bearman

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:20 AM

scottcardiff says

"If this low holds, new lows in gold/highs in the US Peso ARE A POSSIBILITY. "


Bearmans 2c Depression also possibility :o

#38 Sphinxter

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:23 AM

My best guess at this point, assuming that this low holds, is a rally in the US Peso to the 98-100 level.

However, be aware, all time highs in the dollar is a possibility, as this drop to 85 MAY JUST BE A HIGHER LOW on the monthly chart (higher than 80 from years ago).

Anything's possible.

But for the dolor, from a fundamental basis to make higher highs, all the other currencies will have to debase even faster than us. That's not a recipe for gold collapse.

I will simply watch the 50dma at 89.41.

I would seriously expect that it bounces off of that hard.

If not. Well, I'll readjust.

#39 Ned38

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:24 AM

Uhhhhhhh Not fer nuttin'.......but anything is possible. It's like Carnival right now. Me?.............All I am expecting at this point is volotility.........the more the better

#40 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:24 AM

scottcardiff says

"If this low holds, new lows in gold/highs in the US Peso ARE A POSSIBILITY. "


Bearmans 2c Depression also possibility :o

that has about zero % odds...

actually less than zero.

where are all those dollars going to go?

when they come home... it won't be bullish.

don't be fooled by the euro/buck b.s.

that's a proxy for disaster, eurokrats are as trapped as we are.

yen/yuan/dollar is in play.

hannibal ain't going cannibal here.

japan has to pay for thier mistakes...

ps. auto sales for the land of the setting sun are imploding.

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:25 AM

Also, compare the daily charts of Silver and gold to copper and aluminum and you don't see a synchronous trading pattern.

On what timeframe? Looks close enough to me.

What I am saying is there has been plenty of liquidity around and speculators have been able to buy and chase anything moving higher.

Regarding the economic cycle what classically happens is that during the initial stages of recovery inventory stockpiles are run down. Then as the cycle matures hoarding sends prices higher which usually ignites inflaiton fears and interest hikes down the road. However, IMO in this respect the present cycle is almost certainly completely different.

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#42 RockLedge

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:25 AM

CDE is a very good buy, imo, @ $5.60.

#43 scottcardiff

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:25 AM

scott, 77 is wide open. 86.88 to 88 a top in uncle buck...

you aint seen nothing yet.

for three years i haven't missed a dollar call, banked forex trades for 38 months running. without one ill fated trade.

battin ave = 1000

you'll seee 80 so fast yer head will spin.

tick tock.

dont drinkie da kewlaid, it's tainted.

JR,

I agree 100% with your analysis, IF this US Peso low FAILS.

Re: batting 100% on your forex trades, are you open to managing my $$?

#44 Sphinxter

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:28 AM

On what timeframe? Looks close enough to me.

Uh, I would suggest looking at the daily charts on, uh, a daily basis.

#45 DrStool

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Posted 14 January 2004 - 10:28 AM

Cmaps say 79-80 on Buck index. That implies a break of the '95 lows. Little bounce here, but that's all.

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