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#16 soup

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:21 PM

you are correct agent. Might as well borrow as much as you can. Only the irresponible are bailed out. This time they went too far. I guess the only solace I can take, is I did the best I could, and really tried to do the right thing.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#17 DrStool

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:23 PM

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#18 soup

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:23 PM

but in the end I was stupid and I was naive.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#19 MrHanky

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:25 PM

If I'm reading today properly, my guess is that the employment report due friday before the open is going to be worse than expected. Ten year yields will collapse, home builders and mortgage lenders will ramp, gold will collapse, shorts will load up in the morning, only to be blown out in the afternoon.

HOV is at support and NCEN was whip sawed and ramped today (glad I covered yesterday) and waiting at the starting gate for the gap and run on Friday morning.

I think when this rally is over,bond yields will collapse to record lows.I know most think otherwise but time will tell.

I still think we end up with bond yields like japan someday.

Nothing


#20 Slothrop

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:25 PM

Precious metals miners end red today, but copper miner PCU closes green.

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:29 PM

I think when this rally is over,bond yields will collapse to record lows.I know most think otherwise but time will tell.

I still think we end up with bond yields like japan someday.

Mr Hanky:

Didn't you get the memo?

This rally will never be over, and bond yields will always be low!

#22 wndysrf

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:30 PM

Just checked the volume figures.

We have had an unmitigated speculative orgy on the Nasdaq the last 3 days, each day over 2.1 billion shares. That's almost 7 billion of NazCrack Paper gamed in 72 hours.

Just today, almost 2.4 billion, thanks to a stunning 140 million shares traded in NT alone, 130 million in LU, 62 million in INTC, 48 million in CSCO.

Hey Soup:

Wanna guess what the OTC BB volume is?? Must be stratospheric.

Anybody know where to look that up???
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#23 Guest_libertas_*

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:31 PM

If I'm reading today properly, my guess is that the employment report due friday before the open is going to be worse than expected. Ten year yields will collapse, home builders and mortgage lenders will ramp, gold will collapse, shorts will load up in the morning, only to be blown out in the afternoon.

HOV is at support and NCEN was whip sawed and ramped today (glad I covered yesterday) and waiting at the starting gate for the gap and run on Friday morning.

Hard to argue with that read.

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:32 PM

GIVE US THIS DAY OUR DAILY SOUP!

SOUP
I'M WITH MARKY -love your posts! I wanna be the big, bad, contrarian and short the SM...heck, using the "old indicators", fading the mkt was an easy and often profitable thing to do-Thanks to Wolanchuk's tutelage over the years, I've learned to put on my bubble/mania glasses and see the "new reality". I saw that the SM was sold out in Oct 2002--in early 2003, I saw that we were in the grip of a very powerful bull mkt...K-Mart up $6 bucks on disappointing earnings...but they wuz "in the black"--I ain't messin with that action on the short side...keep on truckin, bro!

#25 aureleus

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:32 PM

I would love it if somebody would tell me, after witnessing the mkt action for the last year, given the economic and debt backdrop, why I should mnot be scared to death?

soup,

ultimately the people using the currency also control it. That's what "state of mind" means. Same goes for all governments (you probably know the french guys who coined that rule of thumb). Give the citizens the benefit of the doubt that they shall fend off their personal "catastrophe".

Also, whenever you picture your "catastrophe", you should keep in mind that the old writers always meant "relative to what the world could be like with complete freedom". All that destruction emanating from government is counterbalanced by citizens living their lives in the framework of the market and the division of labor - and this market is becoming bigger worldwide, not smaller, even as we write.

Stop whining about "your country" and start to have faith in yourself and those persons you come into contact with. If you feel faith is displaced, do something about it.

regards

#26 DrStool

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:33 PM

Need to chill out folks. It's just another mania. Or the same one if you care to look at it that way. Semantics.

Manias usually do not come this close together, but in the early years of the 20th century, both before and after the creation of the Fed, manias and panics were regular features of markets.

You should not blame the Fed for this week's rally. They drained $19 billion over two days, and the Treasury is also suctioning at the moment.

This rally and all rallies are driven by short covering. This one in particular is being helped along by seasonal 401K/IRA cash flows, which are likely to be heavier than normal, because it's a mania.

Stop blaming the Fed and the gummit. Not that they didn't sponsor this. Of course they did. But it's now a mania pure and simple.

This blame stuff is really pointless. It's an attempt to deflect attention from the real cause. Hedging and shorting lead to forced buying. that's what this mania is all about. The bulls have a gravy train going. It's a cakewalk for them. Not because they're so smart, but because we are so stupid we keep shorting this thing.

Top picking is a loser's game. In this environment we must be trend followers. Yes so we'll miss the first downturn.

Big deal.

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#27

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:33 PM

Looks like RIMM is having some sort of incident in the AH - down $2.30 to $70.40.

Sort of hard to believe I managed to short 1000 shares today at 73.33.

Something about a blind squirrel finding a nut.

#28 FauxCaster

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:35 PM

Wanna guess what the OTC BB volume is?? Must be stratospheric.

Anybody know where to look that up???

Don't where to find the stats, but Crapvision said 3X normal today.
"WE ARE BEING KEPT ALIVE by the Entropic movement of Dark Matter(Sino-Nippo-dollar purchasing of $UST)---as soon as there is a ringing sound,a sign of an clogged artriosclerotic wormhole on the emergency fiat-meter it will end--dynamic equilibrium,will have been achieved;better known as death" -- beardrech (Mar 15 2006, 01:17 AM)

"There's a good chance he was drunk or drugged. Only an idiot would jump into the bear cage." -- Belgrade Zoo Director Vuk Bojovic (August 20, 2007).

It's like you're dreamin' about Gorgonzola cheese when it's clearly Brie time, baby. -- Hitchhiker (S.A.M. 1998)

Mar 28 2003: July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move...then the first leg of the bear is over ...many will be caught by surprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years [2007] ..."depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010. -- blackbelt (Mar 28 2003, 10:05 PM)

#29 Guest_libertas_*

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:35 PM

Hey Soup:

Wanna guess what the OTC BB volume is??  Must be stratospheric.

Anybody know where to look that up???

Not for today yet. But yesterday is available at:

Pinksheets.com

and here (note numbers are different):

OTC BB Pulse

:(

#30 Sphinxter

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Posted 07 January 2004 - 05:35 PM

Never in the history of the world have suck risks been taken by the central banks. Might as well go pick your burial plot or you urn now and avoid the rush. The last act of western civilization is being played out in front of our eyes.

Oh, I don't know about that Soup.

Of course, the coming 'correction' will be unpleasant for a bunch of folks. Notably those who didn't pay attention or bought the BS.

I fully expect to be perfectly fine, for my children to be well prepared, and to be part of the solution, whatever that may be.

I am positioned to be OK as long as:

- dollar falls faster than euro, loonie, aussie, and new zealand buckeroonie.
- Gold does well
- Silver does well

The way our fiscal and monetary 'authorities' are behaving, these are lay-ups.

If I miss out on some contrived BS run the SM, so be it.

Longer term, well, Houston, we have a problem. The things so ugly that all avert their eyes. The unspeakable horrors of energy and Social Security.

Sure, these goons can prop and jive for the moment, but there is simply no answer to these longer-term issues besides "those are the next guy's problem".

At worst we will suffer a massive economic dislocation in the next few months. At best we will suffer a long slow decline into the twenty-teens complete with a vibrant fascist government.

In the first case, I am prepared. In the second case, I will be living in Argentina (or some other land-rich, demographically young country) long before TSHTF.

Keep the chin up old boy - if you let them get to you, they've won.





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