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#61 Bearbones

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:46 PM

ISM is a "touchy feely" type of number. It's a survey.
If a midget puts on a pair of platform shoes and is asked if he feels taller, the midget will respond with "a lot taller". If Shaq puts on the same type of shoes, he won't notice the difference.
Manufacturing is coming off a depression, at least temporarily. The view to those who work in it is one of relief.
By the way, has anyone noticed the poor performance of the cardboard container business?

#62 The End

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:48 PM

When the still sea conspires an armor
And her sullen and aborted
Currents breed tiny monsters
True sailing is dead
Awkward instant
And the first animal is jettisoned
Legs furiously pumping
Their stiff green gallop
And heads bob up
Poise
Delicate
Pause
Consent
In mute nostril agony
Carefully refined
And sealed over

Horse Latitudes The Doors.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#63 Grand Poopercycle

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:50 PM

Bb-yes on the containers. We don't make much that
needs to be shipped anymore.

#64 mjkst27

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:53 PM

I kinda look like Oyster, maybe his uncle or somethin

#65 Sphinxter

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:56 PM

MH- Still believe they're(ISM) 'directional', not 'magnitudinal',
indicators.And, no matter what the past 'correlation' is, the GDP #'s,
at least quarterly, are "statistical flatulence" ...

Speaking of which, there's a much better correlate out there.

The 'other' ISM number - Incoherent Sphinxter Mumblings - shows a near-perfect correlation between excellent GDP growth and century/decade combos that begin with 199x but a far less certain relationship, possibly even a negaitve one, with 200x combos.

---------------

All kidding aside, unless the ISM number was 'readjusted' along with the GDP statistical revisionism that happend in 1995 (and '97, and 98, 99, etc) I don't think it holds much power.

#66 Sphinxter

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:58 PM

By the way, has anyone noticed the poor performance of the cardboard container business?

I wouldn't even know where to look - do you have any more information?

Sounds intribuing.

#67 machinehead

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 08:00 PM

Old stock market hand John Dorfman, writing on the Bloomberg site, touts the 63% gain in his Robot Portfolio last year. Then he explains,

Here's how the Robot works. Using Bloomberg stock screening software (the Quicksearch, or QSRC function) it identifies all U.S. common stocks with a market value of $500 million or more. Currently, there are about 1,900 such stocks.         

It eliminates stocks with trailing 12-month losses, or with debt greater than stockholders' equity. At the moment, that leaves about 1,200 stocks.         

From those, the Robot simply selects the 10 with the lowest P-E ratios. Any graduate student in finance could design something more sophisticated -- and probably less profitable.


Robo-trader

I'm choking on this. Choosing the 10 lowest P/E's in a field of 1,200 financially-fit large cap stocks is a very crude screening method, particularly when you consider the unreliability of corporate earnings. No trend indicator is used at all.

Dorfman's claimed results are way beyond what other researchers, such as O'Shaughnessy's 40-year study What Works on Wall Street, found.

I would be interested in comments on this article from VectorVest users.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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#68 EddieBear

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 08:01 PM

The Fed previously said it was not worried about the continued stagnation in the money supply, but I think they’ll change their tune soon.

Why is there so much debate about what is causing the decline in M2 / M3? Whoever collects the data, can't they break it down so we can tell what is shrinking?

#69 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 08:02 PM

NWS

Attached Images

  • 1NWS.gif


#70 mjkst27

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 08:03 PM

Old stock market hand John Dorfman, writing on the Bloomberg site, touts the 63% gain in his Robot Portfolio last year. Then he explains,



Robo-trader

I'm choking on this. Choosing the 10 lowest P/E's in a field of 1,200 financially-fit large cap stocks is a very crude screening method, particularly when you consider the unreliability of corporate earnings. No trend indicator is used at all.

Dorfman's claimed results are way beyond what other researchers, such as O'Shaughnessy's 40-year study What Works on Wall Street, found.

I would be interested in comments on this article from VectorVest users.

Hang on, I'm skeptical that nearly 60% of american large caps have balance sheets that are so healthy. Equity greater than debt? I.e. an unleveraged balance sheet? 60%? Can't be.

#71 MyGoldenStool

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 08:03 PM

I wouldn't even know where to look - do you have any more information?

Sounds intribuing.

It was in the ISM report today. I pointed it out on IDS- maybe look on page 3 or 4 for the snippit I posted there.

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 08:09 PM

A RATHER BULLISH LOOKING DAY IN THE SM

THE whoa-scary turnaround in the DOW--like the Monday turn around after Saddam was captured--will have zero predictive value--and it's just what the doctor orders in a bull mkt to straighten out overly bullish sentiment and send traders home with something to worry about over the weekend-the a/d line was still positive...a rather healthy "pause that refreshes"--[unfortunately, that Abby-the-Ape woman kind of remark is what we're gonna have to put up with from here on out-UGH!]

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 08:09 PM

Everyone's favorate, ABnormal Cohen to appear on the George Washington show tonight. Ought to be a hoot.

#74 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 08:12 PM

Ehhhhhhh....can somebody explain to me what "riverboating" is. I have been able to pick up on most stooly language by context but I can't seem to get this one.
Thanks,
Hank

#75 Bearbones

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 08:12 PM

I wouldn't even know where to look - do you have any more information?

Sounds intribuing.

Try this link:



http://www.economagi...xe/cenm3/a22bvs





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