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#46 The End

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:16 PM

End - so was 2003 the first year that the market ever closed up after a down January, or whatever your stat was that had never happened before?

I found out via M.H. that it was the second time. It happened once before in 67 or 69'.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#47 mjkst27

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:16 PM

Nice call on "Parallel Pete", Meta

#48 brian4

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:17 PM

Yippers TE it would be NICE if today was the top, I covered my Spoo calls at 1117-am now flat-looking to short (you know where) 1102. For those owning HUGO and IVAN as I do no one can cement a deal like Bob Friedland and ensure the competition gets locked out-from todays Financial Post-"Ivanhoe Mines has bought $50 Million dollars of Mongolian T-Bills to help the former Communist Country retire Soviet era debt held by the Russian population." Watch Hugo run now. Also this " China set to revalue Yuan" "The Chinese Government will likely loosen the reins on the yuan, allowing the currency to flucuate to head off inflation-say currency anal cysts. The article goes on to say they will likely do it this year as their GDP for 04 is expected to rise 8.6% it is expected they will allow it flucuate AGAINST A BASKET OF CURRENCIES> in other words they don't want the Greenback. Now this is what Snow wanted but I would suggest his wet dream will become a nightmare when the peg is lifted. Trade safe! ;)

#49 DrStool

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:19 PM

During the deflation scare of 2001 and 2002, the market craved any indication of economic strength. Stocks and bond yields would rise together.

The pattern persisted as late as this autumn, when the market cheered the 7.1% 3rd quarter GDP blowout, subsequently revised to 8.2% growth.

Even this morning, the blowout ISM number announced at 10:00 a.m. started to provoke the usual Boner Run. But something went wrong ... bonds got croaked, and the stock market actually fell together with those rising yields.

That's the old inflationary pattern, which ruled the intermarket relationship from the early Fifties until Oct. 1998. Since then it has often 'flown upside down' on deflation fears. But today was like old times again. Have we crossed a watershed?

If the prevailing fear shifts from deflation to inflation, the stock market will be crushed. The S&P can offer a paltry earnings yield of 3% only because safe Treasury yields are low across the yield curve. Rising Treasury yields will pull the plug on the Washington/Wall Street Ponzi scheme with brutal efficacy.

The top-grossing horror film of 2004 may turn out to be "Revenge of the Bond Vigilantes." They are not known to be advocates of 'humane slaughter,' either.

"I'll have some more beans Mr. Taggart!"

"I think you've had ENOUGH!"

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#50 mjkst27

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:19 PM

I found out via M.H. that it was the second time. It happened once before in 67 or 69'.

what was the exact stat, End?

#51 mjkst27

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:23 PM

For all you Stoolies that are golf fans, I hereby nominate, and am looking for YOUR support, for 1967 PGA Championship Winner Don January

Posted Image

to be our spokesman and advocate for a Do(w)n January this year in the markets.

eh? what say you Stoolies?

#52 The End

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:25 PM

what was the exact stat, End?

If the Dow makes a lower low in the first quarter then the prior Dec. The year is down.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#53 Brisbane Bear

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:27 PM

Can any expert have a look at NWS on stockcharts and tell me is this a head and shoulders pattern forming or a potential double top and how do you tell?

PS I have taken the plunge and am trying to learn TA.

TIA

#54 Metamucil

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:29 PM

Nice call on "Parallel Pete", Meta

Thanks.

Now this one is just cruising for a monster breakout. In fact, it is the only stock that produces a head-shoulders pattern when you do a 10-year POG:DROOY ratio....indicating that it will handily outperform the metal in the intermediate term. Another one of Weinstein's 'outstanding setups'.....but patience is needed....next purchase points are 3.54, 3.84 and 4.38. We surpassed 3.22 today and I bought with both hands.

I'm riding this into high double digits :P

DROOY monthly

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"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#55 The End

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:30 PM

I am not a pro by any means (I know nothing, and this year proved that). The right shoulder seems a bit high but, volume looks about right.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#56 Bearbones

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:31 PM

ECRI growth rate is dropping but their comment offers little hope for any give in the economy
"We have not seen the WLI growth rate stay at such a high level for such a long time in two decades, it is clearly pointing to resilient growth," said ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan. "
http://www.businessc...php?storyID=604

While most bond investors fear inflation, the paramter most correlated with bond performance is growth. If that relationship holds true, we can have a major bond selloff without inflation if growth remains very strong.
The bond market remains the market policeman here, but I fear he is now on the take.

#57 wndysrf

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:33 PM

Damon Vickers apologizes for a blown year in 2003.

He's forecasting a temporary dump in the Dow and money moving back into the Nasdaq.

Recommending fiber optic/telecom longs now.

Complete apology found here:

http://www.damonvick...news.asp?id=528
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#58 Grand Poopercycle

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:35 PM

MH- Still believe they're(ISM) 'directional', not 'magnitudinal',
indicators.And, no matter what the past 'correlation' is, the GDP #'s,
at least quarterly, are "statistical flatulence"-to get the 'annualized'
growth rate, they annualize the rate of change between two #'s that
are reported on an annual basis(may meet some bizarre rule of stat-
istics but violates plain common sense)-even though they don't do this
to corporate pfofits #'s in the same report;the now well-known hedonic
pricing trick;, and maintaining a high level of government spending-
while defense spending didn't grow in Q3 after Q2's explosion, by run-
ning at the same high rate it didn't create a 'gap' to be made up elsewhere.
More than anything, just looking around tells you a lot. I've talked to about
two dozen different business people, mainly small business folks and some
professional service(accounting,etc) people, since the first GDP fart at Hall-
oween and the clear consensus is that "things are better than 6-9 months
ago but they're mediocre overall and not back to 3, 4,5 years ago"
and the job market is 'poor'(maybe up from terrible but not even ok yet)
overall. Where there is a variation, it's that things have yet to improve-
one person I asked oversees a group of small business lenders and they
agreed with the above consensus but said about 25% of their clients had seen
continued deterioration throughout '03 for 3 straight declining years in a row.
I did talk to a guy from IBM accidentally(sat next to him in a Panera waiting
for someone else and politely inserted myself into his discussion for a bit) a
few weeks back-he's a 'marketing planner' and said for '04 they were seeing
their customers spend on replacement where needed but no major
upgrading going on, and agreed with 'mediocre' as an appropriate adjec-
tive.
All the crazed stimulus of the past three years and things are mediocre-and
people know it, no matter how sushi-fresh the farts out of Mama-San Chao's
statistical chiropractory.

#59 The brown one

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:41 PM

Dunno if anyone already posted this from Jim Sinclair's site.

"How Far Can Gold Go Now? Here is the Answer: As long as the US Federal Reserve holds the shortest term interest rates at 1%, gold will continue higher. This is a direct quote from one of the most prestigious international investment banks that was sent last week to their preferred (that means huge) clients. Therefore, there is no limit to the price of gold as long as the Fed holds 1%."

I picked it up on a Dutch site doing a review of US market gurus FWIW.

#60 Metamucil

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Posted 02 January 2004 - 07:45 PM

Recommending fiber optic/telecom longs now.

Complete apology found here:

So, what was he saying when many telcom golden crosses occurred last January??

e.g. weekly LU.

Posted Image

These idiots would not write crap, if they could trade properly and, as Doc says, just follow the indicators. When you don't have significant coin on the table, it is easy to miss these things. This is simpleton mathematics and game theory.
"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000





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