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#1

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 08:33 AM

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Posted Image
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . perso.wanadoo.fr/laurent.ccfg

The painting relates to one of my favorite episodes from that magnificent 1951 epic Quo Vadis? (starring Peter Ustinov as a wonderfully deranged Nero), which Nancy and I were fortunate enough to catch on Channel 13 last weekend with no commercial or any other interruptions. And I'm sure that this is also one of the favorite episodes for those of you out there who have also seen this movie. And I'm also sure that those of you who haven't seen the movie (yet) can guess why.

Simply one of the very best epics ever made, the part of Ursus, Lygia's (Deborah Kerr) bodyguard, who is fighting the charging bull in the arena in order to save her life (in the 1951 movie she's tied to a stake - there were three previous versions, the first one in 1912), is appropriately played by Buddy Baer, who BTW was the giant-sized brother of heavyweight prizefighter-turned-actor Max Baer.

And with that I wish all of you a very happy and healthy New Year.

#2 GregFokker

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 08:43 AM

[img]http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=f&w=15&a=2&v.gif]]http://quotes.ino.com/chart/intraday.gif?s...w=15&a=2&v.gif[/img]

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#3 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 08:45 AM

10 sigma pension approaches

From the Times this morning...

"his year's stock market rally has added more than $100 billion to corporate America's depleted pension funds, but even that has not been enough to offset forces that continue to weaken the funds.

If all of America's 500 largest companies had to make good on their promises to workers and retirees immediately, they would have to plug a $259 billion gap in their pension funds, according to a study by Standard & Poor's which will be published soon. A year ago, even though stock prices were lower, the same companies were considerably closer to meeting their obligations, being only $212 billion short.

That is because their obligations to their workers have spiraled up at an even faster pace than stocks have risen"........ More
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#4 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 08:46 AM

Sorry ...heres the story link on pensions

http://www.nytimes.c...e0f7c70987c6a72
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#5 Sphinxter

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 08:50 AM

10 sigma pension approaches

From the Times this morning...

"his year's stock market rally has added more than $100 billion to corporate America's depleted pension funds, but even that has not been enough to offset forces that continue to weaken the funds.

If all of America's 500 largest companies had to make good on their promises to workers and retirees immediately, they would have to plug a $259 billion gap in their pension funds, according to a study by Standard & Poor's which will be published soon. A year ago, even though stock prices were lower, the same companies were considerably closer to meeting their obligations, being only $212 billion short.

That is because their obligations to their workers have spiraled up at an even faster pace than stocks have risen"........ More

This is the un-talked about bad part to Easy Al's monstrously low interest rates.

Bad for pensioners of all stripes including the corporations.

Bonds are typically 60% of the assets of a pension fund.

Most pension funds need to return 9%-10% for the balance sheet to remain neutral.

If the bonds are returning 4%-5%, this leaves a very BIG gap for stocks to fill.

Very big.

#6 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 08:57 AM

It will be very very interesting to see how the bond market opens this morning.
How long can the bond whistle past the graveyard, ignoring a full blown currency crisis in the worlds reserve currency? I think the resolve of the Japanese is being stretched to the limit. Something has to give here.
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#7 Sphinxter

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 09:02 AM

WHOOPS!

Mortgage demand falls to year low

Applications for refinancing drop 14%, new home loans dip 5.2% as housing market cools off.
December 31, 2003: 7:21 AM EST



NEW YORK (Reuters) - New applications for U.S. mortgages fell last week to the lowest weekly level in 2003, as home sales cooled from a blistering pace earlier in the year, a U.S. mortgage industry group said Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its widely watched mortgage market index, a measure of mortgage loan demand, for the week ended Dec. 26 declined 9 percent to 574.1 from the prior week's 631.2.



I sure hope that business CAPEX is exploding right about now!!!

#8 Ags Nightmare

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 09:04 AM

For this looking for a dollar bounce, they just set up the excuse for it to pop in the last sentence of the second paragraph when nothing happens here overnight.

Looking at the dollar chart, I don't think Al Green will get worried unless it breaks 80.

(REUTERS) U.S. dollar hits 10-year low vs Canadian dollar
U.S. dollar hits 10-year low vs Canadian dollar

LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell to its
lowest level in 10 years against the Canadian dollar on
Wednesday on the back of broad-based selling pressure that had
brought it down to record lows on the euro earlier in the day.
Bearish dollar sentiment has intensified in the run-up to
the end of the year on the back of disappointing U.S. economic
data and worries over possible attacks in the U.S. during the
New Year celebrations.
This accelerated dollar losses already made during this
year, driven by worries over structural problems facing the U.S.
economy, namely its current account deficit.
"There was a significantly large order to sell dollar/Canada
in Asia that pushed us into a new lower trading range, and since
then we have had stop-loss orders," said Monica Fan, senior
foreign exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in London.
"There has been no Canadian-specific economic news," she
said.


Ag
"I went out and bought an Apple Computer; it had a worm in it"....."When I was born, I was so ugly that the doctor slapped my mother"....'I played hide and seek; they wouldn't even look for me.'- Rodney Dangerfield

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#9 Lock Limit Down

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 09:09 AM

More on pensions
Cant imagine what a devastating effect this will have on future earnings flow...

Judge Rules Against US Airways on Calculating Pilots' Pensions
By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH

Published: December 31, 2003


"In a ruling that could make it harder for financially troubled companies to reduce their pension obligations or shed them altogether, a federal bankruptcy judge has ruled that US Airways must calculate its pilots' pensions according to existing regulations, rejecting the airline's argument for a new method more favorable to the company".....more

http://www.nytimes.c...e238413996166a4
Posted Image
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." --- Thomas Jefferson

#10 Sphinxter

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 09:10 AM

Since it's still pre-market ....

I posted this this a.m. over on M2M.

(MajorCrapper @ Dec 31 2003, 06:23 AM)
I wouldn't read too much into currency moves at this time of year.

I also note that gold is failing to make any move today. Time to get short there very, very soon. 



Sorry, I just can't see a gold whack right now.

First, the dolor has expectional weakness to the Euro.

Second, the buying pressure on gold has kept a very firm peg to the Euro in a very tight band of less than 1% (330 - 333).

My theory is that the CB's are keeping this 'peg' to help offset the pain of the declining dolor.

Gold represents about 15% of the reserve assets of most European CB's. If both gold and the dolor were to decline at the same time, this would lead to real (banker) pain and the prospect of having to rebalance the reserve assets.

I would suspect and propose that the CB's are very interested in maintianing the Euro/Gold ratio and would temper their sales and possibly even buying of gold to help avoid balance sheet erosion.

Just my take.

Has nothing to do with charts and over/under bought indicators.

#11 Ags Nightmare

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 09:10 AM

For those interested in the holiday schedules....

(REUTERS) ADVISORY-U.S. market closings for New Year's holiday
ADVISORY-U.S. market closings for New Year's holiday

Most U.S. financial markets will be closed Thursday for New
Year's, and some have early closings the days before and after.
This is a listing of the special hours that have been
announced.
--------------------- WALL STREET ----------------------------
The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will be closed on
Thursday. They will have regular hours the day before and the
day after.
----------------------- BONDS --------------------------------
The Bond Market Association is recommending an early market
close at 2 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT) on Wednesday, a full market
close on Thursday, and an early market close at 2 p.m. EDT
(1900 GMT) on Friday
These recommendations apply to the trading of U.S.
government securities, mortgage- and asset-backed securities,
over-the-counter investment-grade and high-yield corporate
bonds, municipal bonds and secondary money market trading in
bankers acceptances, commercial paper and Yankee and Euro
certificates of deposit.
The early closes will not affect the closing time for
settlements.
The association's recommended full market closes are
recommendations only; each member firm decides for itself
whether its fixed-income department will remain open for
trading. All association recommendations are subject to change
because of market conditions.

----------------- CHICAGO MARKETS -------------------------
The Chicago Board of Trade, the Chicago Mercantile
Exchange Inc. and the Chicago Board Options Exchange will be
closed on Thursday.
At the CBOT on Wednesday, Agricultural and financial
contracts will close at noon CST (1800 GMT). Stock index
contracts will close at 3:15 p.m. CST (2115 GMT).
In electronic trading, the Dow/AIG Index contracts will
close at 11:00 a.m. CST (1700 GMT). Financial and metals
contracts will close at 12:30 p.m. (1830 GMT). Stock index
contracts will have normal daytime hours. Overnight electronic
trading will be closed.
On Thursday. all daytime trading will be closed. Overnight
electronic trading reopens at normal evening hours for
agricultural, financial and stock index contracts. Electronic
trading in metals contracts will remain closed.
On Friday, pit trading in financial contracts will close at
noon CST. All other open auction contracts will observe normal
schedules.
In electronic trading, financial contracts will close at
12:30 p.m. CST. Metals contracts will be closed. All other
electronic markets will observe normal hours.
At the CME on Wednesday, open pit trading in commodity
futures, foreign exchange and interest rates close at noon CST.
Commodity options close at 12:02 CST. Equity indexes close at
their normal times.



Ag
"I went out and bought an Apple Computer; it had a worm in it"....."When I was born, I was so ugly that the doctor slapped my mother"....'I played hide and seek; they wouldn't even look for me.'- Rodney Dangerfield

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#12 fxfox

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 09:12 AM

TOTAL DOLLAR COLLAPSE WHILE I WRITE THIS

GBP up almost 200 pips, euro at 1.2648, CHF only few pips above 1.2300, but yen is stable, thansk to good old BoJ. :lol:


I WISH ALL STOOLIES A WONDERFULL AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

#13 Ags Nightmare

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 09:13 AM

------------ NEW YORK COMMODITY FUTURES MARKETS -------------
New York commodities and energy markets will be closed on
Thursday and Friday.
On Wednesday, some markets will close early, as follows:
New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX & NYMEX) metals and
energy markets:
Aluminum <0#AL:>.................................1200 EST
Copper <0#HG:>...................................1205 EST
Palladium <0#PA:>................................1200 EST
Silver futures and options <0#SI:>...............1205 EST
Platinum <0#PL:>.................................1210 EST
Gold futures and options <0#GC:>.................1210 EST
Crude Oil <0#CL:>................................1300 EST
Gasoline <0#HU:>.................................1300 EST
Heating Oil <0#HO:>..............................1300 EST
Henry Hub natural gas <0#NG:>....................1300 EST
Canadian (Alberta) natural gas <0#NC:>...........1300 EST
NYMEX Clearport clearing will also close at 1300 EST on
Wednesday.
NYMEX ACCESS off-hours electronic trade will be closed on
Dec. 24 and reopen at 7 p.m. (1900 EST/2400 GMT) on Dec. 28.
The New York Board of Trade (NYBOT) trading in all its
agricultural commodity futures and options markets will be
closed on Thursday and Friday.


Ag
"I went out and bought an Apple Computer; it had a worm in it"....."When I was born, I was so ugly that the doctor slapped my mother"....'I played hide and seek; they wouldn't even look for me.'- Rodney Dangerfield

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#14 DrStool

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 09:13 AM

Happy New Year, Stoolies! At this time of reflection and reminiscence, I want to send a special greeting and many tanks to Gladiator, and to all the moderators who have volunteered their services to try and make the Stool a better place. To you folks, and to all the regular contributors to Intraday Stool, Happy New Year, and many many tanks for participating in this wonderful community!

2003 has been a difficult year for bears, and we don't know if 2004 will get any easier. While this site is certainly about the business of making money, and many of you have done so in the precious metals stocks this year, the Stool is also about caring and community, caring about more than dollars and cents. It's about caring about values, old fashioned values, and sense, common sense. It's also about caring about people, both those who are with us today, and those who will follow. It's also about camaraderie, mutual respect, intelligent, thoughtful conversation, mutual support, and good, old fashioned, silly fun. These are the qualities of the people who make this place special, and different.

Once again, I want to recognize you for that, and tell you how proud I am to be associated with each and every one of you, this year, and every year.

To those of you who come and visit with us every day, but remain silent, I send my warm regards as well. I encourage you to speak up whenever you feel that you have something to say or ask. Registration for the board is easy, and you'll get the hang of posting in no time.

I look forward to spending 2004 with all of you, and with the many new friends who will join us, and old friends who will return.

So here's to the year gone by. Good riddance! :lol:

And here's to the year ahead!

Happy Stool Year everybody!

Your friend,

Dr. Stepan N. Stool


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#15 seamus

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Posted 31 December 2003 - 09:14 AM

For those interested in pension funding levels....my firm manages fixed for a lot of db plans and puts out research on a monthly basis. Let me know and I will direct you to the site.





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