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#16 Hiding Bear

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 06:56 PM

Japan can't do it alone it is basically the only nation directly applying support to the dollar...and they are barely treading water...

Who else can support the dollar then? Realisticly no one...Japan and the US are the top of the ponzi scheme...when the US finally starts to crumble the whole thing will hyperdeflate...implode

Civilization as it is currently understood is totally dependant on the US ability to produce debt inflation...real estate is the number 1 debt factory...and rates can only go so low to support the volume needed...soon infinite volume will be needed and rates can not drop faster and faster infinitly...

That about sums it up. Don't think that lower interest rates will necessarily even help anymore.

“The M3 money supply decrease of the past 3-4 months is unprecedented in the
past 59 years, only 1943 is worse.” Short’em High

The money supply more or less leveled off this week. M-2 money supply increased by $3 billion but M-3 dropped $1. Inflation adjusted money supply is an official component of the leading indicators because of its correlation to economic activity. The heavily manipulated CPI is used to compute Inflation-adjusted money supply, along with many components of GDP. Since the last CPI came in negative, I suppose the Fed will say not to worry about the continued stagnation in the money supply.

However the dynamics of credit bubble implosion are now operative (see yobob1/HypTig/others explanation for more). The problem the Fed has is that by itself, it is no longer is able to promote credit growth along the hyperbolic curve needed to offset the mounting interest and principal repayments, plus credit losses from the debtors (i.e Scamalot and money losing companies). Authorities continue to encourage credit expansion where ever possible – mostly through new home purchases, the stock market and even newer areas of speculation like commodities.

Central bank purchases of the US dollar were up about $55.5 billion the last six weeks, or about an annualized rate near $500 billion. The massive $ purchases have not influenced the overall trade weighted value of the US$. Apparently these foreign central banks, but mostly Japan, are willing to swallow the entire US balance of payments deficit - while not worrying about the possible inflationary consequences to their economy or the world. Well actually, despite their pronouncements to buy a trillion more US$ if necessary, they are a little more worried lately because they know that they alone can not stop a major dollar crisis if one develops.

Continuous heavy intervention on behalf of the US$ (from Japan) expands the world money supply pool outside the US - and has seeped back into US markets directly (in bonds) and indirectly (stocks). This temporarily offsets the impact of the steadily falling domestic money supply. However Japan is planning to become more active in the process of sterilization, which is the process of offsetting the huge increases in the supply of yen sold by purchasing them back through – for instance – special yen bill/bond sales. When Japanese interest rates start rising, which they have not done lately, it may be a signal to look for less liquidity in financial markets.

On the bright side for gold bulls, the falling US$ and increasing supply of world money has continued to support gold – as well as other internationally traded commodities (excluding some tainted farm goods).

With credit/debt growth slowing down percentage wise (see also the MoGauge report by Doc), and as kind of a leading indicator for money supply growth, look for a continued stagnation in traditional money supply measures.

Any lurkers should get a subscription and read what Doc has to say about this subject. You can find a sample at http://www.guruboard...ult.asp?aid=116.


http://www.federalre...ses/h6/Current/

http://www.federalre...es/H41/Current/

http://research.stlo...fred2/series/M2

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#17 machinehead

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 07:03 PM

U.S. Mad Cow Link Raised in Creutzfeldt-Jakob Cases

http://www.reuters.c...storyID=4047764

Janet Skarbek, an attorney and accountant from Cinnaminson, New Jersey, three years ago began investigating the possibility that mad cow disease has afflicted and killed several people in or near southern New Jersey.

Skarbek's suspicions center on the now-defunct Cherry Hill horse racetrack, where her mother worked. A colleague there, Carrie Mahan, died at age 29 of Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease.

Skarbek said it is unclear whether Mahan's case was naturally occurring Creutzfeldt-Jakob or the variant commonly linked with contaminated cows.

After AIDS was named and became well known in the early 1980s, attempts to trace its origin revealed that one person in St. Louis had died of AIDS in 1969. This was verified from tissue samples.

Who knows what will turn up when they go looking for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease? It was a big deal in the U.K. throughout the Nineties, but the U.S. paid little attention.

A provision in the 2002 farm bill dealt with humane euthanasia of downer cows, but did not restrict them from being processed for food. Details in the LOB thread:

The beef on beef
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#18 DrStool

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 07:10 PM

Not only did graffiti originate in Philly in the 60's, it evolved into the Philadelphia Mural Arts program. The city now has 2300 murals on buildings around the city, the most of any city in the world.

Visit the Philadelphia Mural Arts website and take a tour.

My hero. Old nightstick in the cumberbund, failed lie detector, spacco il capo himself, hizzoner da mayor.

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My other heroes:

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#19

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 07:11 PM

Hey, you're back on Guruboard Doc! What happened?

#20 DrStool

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 07:20 PM

Yeah, I heard there was a groundswell of worldwide protest. :P But I'm not really back. My posting priveleges were rescinded.

And that's ok. I've got my voice right here. It's all I really want. The rest of the world is simply not ready for good old Doc. But I suspect that one day, it will come a knockin'.

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#21 DrStool

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 07:21 PM

Because the Stool always rules....

in the end.

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#22 DrStool

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 07:25 PM

Hiding Bear, your discussion was so good, I think I'll borrow it and skip mine this weekend! :)

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 07:37 PM

Because the Stool always rules....

in the end.

No doubt about it....

#24 Hiding Bear

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 07:48 PM

Hiding Bear, your discussion was so good, I think I'll borrow it and skip mine this weekend! :)

Tanks! :o :D :o

#25

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 08:56 PM

Bontchev posted a link on Machinehead Does Japan, LOB, about an Aussie in Iceland... very funny albeit lengthy read..

http://pferrie.tripo...ife/iceland.htm

Excerpts:

"The temperature reached 20°C, the sun shone, the wind was still, it was too hot to work. The boss went camping for four days. The rest of us spent most of the day outside, sitting on chairs, basking in the sunshine, eating icecream. The Icelanders got sunburned. I laughed."

"Icelandic joke: two Icelanders meet in another country.
- How was summer this year?
- Oh it was great. It was on a Tuesday this year."

[reminded me of Dozer and Farmer]


"Someone at work organised a mystery tour. It was so mysterious that even the boss didn't know where we were going. It began... with a trip to the basement. There was food and drink - a good start to any tour. Eventually, a bus arrived to take us further afield. A "reasonable" amount of alcohol was allowed to accompany us. The Icelanders understood this to mean "as much as one can carry". Pockets were filled with bottles. Some people looked like a new species of spiny animal." :D

#26 nobody

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 09:04 PM

And that's ok. I've got my voice right here. It's all I really want. The rest of the world is simply not ready for good old Doc. But I suspect that one day, it will come a knockin'.

Knock, Knock.......................................................................nobody's here! ;)

#27 machinehead

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 09:41 PM

The rest of the world is simply not ready for good old Doc. But I suspect that one day, it will come a knockin'.

Ironically, when it does, it will be the Greatest Buying Opportunity of the 21st Century.

Watch for it. ;)
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#28 fxfox

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 09:44 PM

I was in college at the Temple University School of Hysteria in Investment Economics (TUSHIE) in N. Philly during those years. I remember Cool Earl and Cornbread very very well. Their work was ubiquitous, but not well appreciated.

:rolleyes: B) :P :D
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

#29 Optical Rectitus

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 09:53 PM

As a non-golfer, I will volunteer to caddy for Doc at the "open"

#30 fxfox

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Posted 26 December 2003 - 09:57 PM

How about that one for my new avatar?


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"Commie bear! It's the Communist Party USA logo on a teddy bear. Click image to shop for a variety of items sporting the CPUSA gear - hammer - sickle logo"

:lol: :lol: :lol:
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'





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