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#16 Charliss

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:37 PM

I had a good day-

Made money trading
Baked Lebkuchen and St. Lucia buns
Took the retriever and the cat for a walk

I'm grateful

#17 DrStool

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:38 PM

it is just so gd frustrating to see the fed backstop all the stupidity. Too much debt, hey no problem we will backstop you at the expense of the prudent. Too long stocks, no problem, we can fix that as well. It is an outrage, all this moral hazard. Screw the savers, even though with out savings and investment no economic growth can be sustained. Everything is fricking micromanaged using time frames that run 5 minutes to 1 day. Truly pathetic.

That I agree with. But I don't agree that they are doing it directly. There are plenty of other "interested parties" with a stake in keeping this propped. The myriad of possible derivative hedges makes it possible for these "interested parties" to never sell. Thus the Greenspan put is leveraged and magnified.

Make no mistake, somebody is going to get screwed royally in the end. The bigger the moral hazard, the bigger the price.

I highly recommend both Mackay's and Kindlebarger' discussions of John Law.

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#18 Guest_libertas_*

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:39 PM

My vote is for Soup to take over M2M while I'm out.

Can't stop laughing at his posts.......

He pretty much summarizes the outright insanity.  The perpetual +1200 TICKs.  The Fed Off Balance Sheet Asset Explosion.  Wild gap ups like RIMM.  Never a down day or retracement.

Current Reliquifaction exceeds the Y2K Reliquifaction by at least 25x.

Who knows how high this pig can go.

Nasdaq went to 5000.  Who says it can't go 25x higher?

I don't think soup is funny, he's just right and frustrated.

But the question is a good one. How high can this go? Obviously it is completely disconnected from the traditional value anchors, like earnings and sales. Now stocks are just like any commodity, trading on supply and demand. With the boyz controlling both sides of the equation.

So the question is, how high do the boyz take it? Only the boyz know.

#19 agent.5

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:44 PM

So the question is, how high do the boyz take it? Only the boyz know.

My guess will be 100 points on the SPX per year, regardless of fundamentals.

#20 Sphinxter

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:44 PM

The weight, size, power and engine displacement of vehicles are growing each year. Dodge plans a new V10 Ram pick-up. 2005 Jeep Grand Cherokees will offer a 5.7-liter hemi engine. The old 4.7-liter V8 just doesn't cut it anymore. And so forth. It's like 1968-1972 all over again -- the horsepower race -- the land yacht syndrome. Gasoline prices -- what, me worry?

MH - not a problem.

Should another energy bite come our way we can always whip the Detroit masses into a frenzy of hate over the damnable practices of those slant-eyed car manufacturers.

How dare they have the right product at the right price and at the right time?

I tell you, it's all a matter of their damnably un-fair trade practices, not our own idiocy.

/rant, fume, boil/

*also sarcasm*

#21

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:49 PM

I had a good day-

Made money trading
Baked Lebkuchen and St. Lucia buns
Took the retriever and the cat for a walk

I'm grateful

What kind of Lebkuchen? :)

#22 FeedFool

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:49 PM

I am not sure what will make the bond tank, it could be Asian economy may supper heat, Joke makes new high, Speculation bubbles or just plain old Dollar crises or bond holders throw in the towel because they can no longer tolerates the meagre returns and buy stock big time.

Those bondholders are sleeping while Speculative profit made from the borrowed money is huge.

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#23 Sphinxter

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:50 PM

Also, I laid back into a solid IT gold portfolio today.

I liked the charts, I liked the several weeks of consolidation at $410-ish and $5.70-ish, I liked the floors put under several of the better juniors.

Looking for gold to actually bust a move relative to all currencies soon.

Then we'll be flying (unless the CB's decide to kill gold, in which case I'll be toast).

Given my record for this past week, I would strongly recommend that you fade this move.

#24 longOnUranus

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:50 PM

Travelling to the Heartland for Xmas, then off to Central America for a banana run. Looked at my account formerly know as "trading account" and the chart of this POS formerly known as "market".

My extended family are professionals/business owners and mid-upper level execs -about 1/3 are out of work, all were fully employed 80+ hours weekly at Y2K. One was fired after he refused to ship sub-spec parts as a cost cutting measure. He's building houses now. Another was terminated from Alcoa 2 weeks before his 20th/fully vested retirement year. Had about 5 minutes from notice to clean out his office and leave the building under escort. We went ahead with his anniversary party anyway.

The lawyers and docs are also struggling. I've had a good year except for this friggin' market, but I still get daggers from my sister-in-law, whom I told to sell INTC at 16 a while back. Told her to buy NEM and BGO, but she seems to have forgotten the NEM-BGO part.

The market has the "End of Times" feel to it, but it may be telling me to take my profits while I got 'em (since 2000) and sit out this mess. Still waiting to see what happens in January. The continued trading above 1088 is very troubling, but the divergences abound.

Have a good Xmas and Holidays, everyone.

#25 FauxCaster

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:53 PM

Hey -- it's not all bad, though. Some enterprising candidate can run as "The Energy President." :lol:

Wasn't that Ross Perot?
"WE ARE BEING KEPT ALIVE by the Entropic movement of Dark Matter(Sino-Nippo-dollar purchasing of $UST)---as soon as there is a ringing sound,a sign of an clogged artriosclerotic wormhole on the emergency fiat-meter it will end--dynamic equilibrium,will have been achieved;better known as death" -- beardrech (Mar 15 2006, 01:17 AM)

"There's a good chance he was drunk or drugged. Only an idiot would jump into the bear cage." -- Belgrade Zoo Director Vuk Bojovic (August 20, 2007).

It's like you're dreamin' about Gorgonzola cheese when it's clearly Brie time, baby. -- Hitchhiker (S.A.M. 1998)

Mar 28 2003: July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move...then the first leg of the bear is over ...many will be caught by surprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years [2007] ..."depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010. -- blackbelt (Mar 28 2003, 10:05 PM)

#26 machinehead

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:54 PM

I highly recommend both Mackay's and Kindlebarger' discussions of John Law.

Ayn Rand on Alan Greenspan:

"How you can stand talking to him? she asked [Nathaniel] Branden in her thick Russian accent.

Im going to bring him around intellectually, Branden replied confidently.

Never! A logical positivist and a Keynesian? said Rand. She would clearly have had higher hopes if Alan were a leper. Im not even certain its moral to deal with him at all.


Greenspan is no John law
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#27 fxfox

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:54 PM

Only in America

:lol: :lol: :lol:

yeah gimme that V12 bi-turbo 8 liter engine! :lol:

btw, i never thought that the Porsche Cayenne would be such a huge sucess. It is the best year in Porsches history and mostly becasue of the Cayenne. That thing sells very good in the US, but also Germany.
Now i ask: IF the economy is totally phcucked up, IF oil price is high and and and WHY is such a car such a huge sucess? I told everyone who wanted to hear it, that the Cayenne will be the worst decision Porsches has ever made and that it will bring down the whole firm. I thought Porsche could even go bankrupt. I was 100% wrong. I think many stoolies though the same. Do WE get something wrong? I mean let us look back to the 70s, becaseu if we say we are in 70s bnear marekt than it should be worthwhile to compare. in Thge 70s those car comapnies started to built smaller engines to reduce gas consumption. So there was a direct result of bad economy: Cars became smaller. In those times where we are right now i havent seen such a result, although it should have occured so far IF we are really all doomed.

Another arguemtn which is maybe the striking one: The gap between rich/super rich and middle class gets bigger and bigger. J&P has to struggle while Richie Rich can buy buy buy what he wants and becasue there are enough Richie Richs a Cayenne can become a sucess story.
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

#28 tpark

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:55 PM

My bad, let me retract the part about the stupidity. It is I, who clearly is the stupid one, fo I have no debt.

I think that "no debt" would be a good position to be in, since you would have greater freedom of action during a crisis. On the other hand, if you had some overvalued property that you had title to, and had to abandon it due to deteriorating social conditions, it would be a shame to leave the equity behind. Is it better to live frugally and have no debt, or is it better to get a HELOC, use the money to buy a big SUV to terrorize small animals, cyclists, and Toyota echo drivers, and use the "cash back" to buy gas and beer?

This will continue until everyone, savers, spendthrifts, bears, bulls, foreign bond holders, Iraqi peasants, your parents, my parents, have been bled dry of every cent they borrowed or earned.

Out of curiosity, how many people recognized the difficulties that were about to occur in 1929? Surely there must have been people who understood the implications of excessive debt at that time.

What strategies could be done to strengthen the USD against other currencies? Is this something the powers that be really want to do? If there was a stampede out of USD, could it be stopped? what kind of bounce do we expect?

so many questions....

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#29 The End

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:55 PM

Ok mousey. Does it matter though? Na.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#30 Charliss

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Posted 23 December 2003 - 05:56 PM

What kind of Lebkuchen? :)

Why do you wanna know? Huh? Huh?





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