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#61 Guest_libertas_*

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 08:38 PM

Fleck sez this is the smoking gun:

"Certain distributors have reached maximum levels of product inventory allowed under Wavecom's revenue recognition policy, which is not to recognize revenues on shipments to distributors that hold more inventory than their current needs. A number of distributors in various geographic locations reached maximum inventory levels in December 2003."

Translation: Folks are up to their asses in unsold cellphones.

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 08:43 PM

Fleck sez this is the smoking gun:

"Certain distributors have reached maximum levels of product inventory allowed under Wavecom's revenue recognition policy, which is not to recognize revenues on shipments to distributors that hold more inventory than their current needs. A number of distributors in various geographic locations reached maximum inventory levels in December 2003."

Translation: Folks are up to their asses in unsold cellphones.

Very interesting libertas. Tanks. I hope they are Nokia cell phones. XLNX is their chip supplier. I believe Fleck coined the phrase, "It doesn't matter until it matters." Did he mention how this information might manifest itself in some way that might actually drop these POS stocks?

Edit: I did read something he wrote on Monday at the MSN site concerning overcapacity I assume it was that one. It did mention XLNX with others as being vulnerable for a good sized pullback but, I don't believe he specified when this might occur. It was a heartening article. To bad the week did not play out the way I had hoped it would on that stock. The article from Monday, Dec. 15th is below.

http://moneycentral....tent/P66214.asp

#63 dozer

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 08:48 PM

from an article on IPO's upcoming in the new year...

"A favorable tax environment, and a clearing of the regulatory clouds over IPOs may also help foster more deals in 2004.

"The only major issues of concern are the weak dollar and very early signs of inflation in commodities," Renaissance said."


sheeshh.....if NatGas up 200% is a "very early sign"...I'd sure hate to see a "major gain" !! :lol:

#64 Slothrop

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 08:49 PM

Short candidate for Monday:

MER.

Shooting star candlestick is bearish.
Can't stay above the 50-dma.
Failing to make new highs when the Dow and SPX do make new highs.
Buy stop at the top of the shooting star high.

Not investment advice. Just pure speculation for edumacational purposes only.

#65 dozer

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 08:50 PM

ps; Mousey, wanted to say that you called it pretty good today....may not have closed in the red, as predicted; but definitely some selling in the aft., and not much of a gain on the day.

now please issue another prediction...like "down 50% on Monday".

that way, we're sure to get a 3-4% dip :P

#66 Sphinxter

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 08:54 PM

Short candidate for Monday:

MER.

Shooting star candlestick is bearish.
Can't stay above the 50-dma.
Failing to make new highs when the Dow and SPX do make new highs.
Buy stop at the top of the shooting star high.

Not investment advice. Just pure speculation for edumacational purposes only.

I hate MER.

They were my bonker from 1992 to 2002.

Skanky bastards.

I'll short them out of spite, which never works out right, but the losses feel better than otherwise.

I hate MER.

Did I already say that?

#67 brian4

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 08:56 PM

Aaaaargh! Now I get e mail asking WHY-I as a BEAR have gone cautious! O.K. here is WHY-I have been saying for two months that T/A has not been working-if you use hurst Cycles-we have had a cycle extension and quite possibly an inversion both of which are very RARE. If you use Elliott Waves-we have on numerous occasions had 3 to six day shallow pullbacks which trace out 5 waves down and then comes enough of a rally to negate the signal. This morning Nazy hit 1963 as an intra day high and then pulled back-on Monday if Nazy exceeds todays 1963 high you have a clear 5 waves up from the Dec.16 low of 1901 and Nazy is off to the races to the upside. If you use Dow Theory-when the Dow new highed yesterday both the Trannies and the Utes did as well confirming the Dows move to a rally high and today the Dow set a new high again. It seems to me that we are going to get a blow off here a BIG one that could last awhile. The fed is pumping again, Steel stocks always laggards are rising and so are Commodities we could be seeing the first wave of inflation about to hit us and the first couple of waves are good for Biz-now sure the whole enchilida can blow up tomorrow and as I posted earlier over 1195 I am long under 1180 I am short. But T/A has not been working on the Downside and that Dow Theory confirmation we haven't had to now in this entire rally. Trade Safe!

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 08:58 PM

Tanks Dozer. Sometimes I can tell you the plot and the end of a movie after watching only two minutes of it. . . . Some scripts are easier to read into than others. Today's market script was an easy one. I was not at all surprised that "They" kept the Dow up though, even if not by that much. It makes for better reading for the sheeple over the weekend

#69 Guest_libertas_*

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 08:59 PM

Did he mention how this information might manifest itself in some way that might actually drop these POS stocks?

Only in the general way that he believes over-ordering of inventory has been rampant in the electronics business in general (phones, PCs, etc. etc.) and that this will show up early in Q1.

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:03 PM

OOPS!!!!!


Parmalat on Edge as Bank Says It Doesn't Have $4.9 Billion
By JOHN TAGLIABUE

Published: December 19, 2003

ARMA, Italy, Dec. 19 Parmalat, the Italian dairy and food giant, slid to the brink of insolvency on Friday after the company disclosed that a bank account that supposedly held nearly $5 billion of its money did not exist.

Parmalat said that the Bank of America had told one of its auditors, Grant Thornton, on Wednesday that a document showing that a Parmalat finance unit in Cayman Islands had an account of 3.95 billion euros, or about $4.9 billion, was a fake. A Bank of America spokeswoman in London declined to comment.

http://www.nytimes.c...9CND-PARMA.html

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:04 PM

Col Dashley

BASIL CHAPMAN IS GOD!

HE and Andrew Addison were some of the rare visionaries who foresaw the bull mkt of the 1990s--They were steadfastly bullish! They thought the bull would last well into the 2000s--I was shocked to learn over a year ago that Addison was bearish and talking about 1929! As a former super-bull, he has mega-credibility with his bear stance-He is not some 2 bit letter writer--They consulted to mutual funds-So Please post any part of that interview you can find--Thanks a mill-!!!!!!!!!

#72 dozer

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:05 PM

tanks for the heads-up Slothrop.

#73 Kid

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:06 PM

Bearish divergences abound - esp $$$ supply in the broad market, but they manage to still keep this pig levitated. The trend is still up (sigh :( ) Perhaps after Jan 1st people will sell for tax purposes and this pig will drop - but with all the dip buying going on I would expect any drop to the 50-day ma to be bought. Just like in Jan-Mar 2000 before the collapse. Could we possibly see the same in the coming months??

#74 Slothrop

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:07 PM

Aaaaargh!  Now I get e mail asking WHY-I as a BEAR have gone cautious!  O.K. here is WHY-I have been saying for two months that T/A has not been working-if you use hurst Cycles-we have had a cycle extension and quite possibly an inversion both of which are very RARE.  If you use Elliott Waves-we have on numerous occasions had 3 to six day shallow pullbacks which trace out 5 waves down and then comes enough of a rally to negate the signal.  This morning Nazy hit 1963 as an intra day high and then pulled back-on Monday if Nazy exceeds todays 1963 high you have a clear 5 waves up from the Dec.16 low of 1901 and Nazy is off to the races to the upside.  If you use Dow Theory-when the Dow new highed yesterday both the Trannies and the Utes did as well confirming the Dows move to a rally high and today the Dow set a new high again. It seems to me that we are going to get a blow off here a BIG one that could last awhile.  The fed is pumping again, Steel stocks always laggards are rising and so are Commodities we could be seeing the first wave of inflation about to hit us and the first couple of waves are good for Biz-now sure the whole enchilida can blow up tomorrow and as I posted earlier over 1195 I am long under 1180 I am short.  But T/A has not been working on the Downside and that Dow Theory confirmation we haven't had to now in this entire rally.  Trade Safe!

SPX bullish percentage higher than bubble era of the late 90's.

#75 Jimi

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:09 PM

OOPS!!!!!


Parmalat on Edge as Bank Says It Doesn't Have $4.9 Billion
By JOHN TAGLIABUE

Published: December 19, 2003

ARMA, Italy, Dec. 19 Parmalat, the Italian dairy and food giant, slid to the brink of insolvency on Friday after the company disclosed that a bank account that supposedly held nearly $5 billion of its money did not exist.

Parmalat said that the Bank of America had told one of its auditors, Grant Thornton, on Wednesday that a document showing that a Parmalat finance unit in Cayman Islands had an account of 3.95 billion euros, or about $4.9 billion, was a fake. A Bank of America spokeswoman in London declined to comment.

http://www.nytimes.c...9CND-PARMA.html

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