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#586 Goldmember

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:51 AM

Brisbane, there is a correction due, but I don't know how much, Nobody does. :P

....and neither do they.

All bets are off, after the Sadamm thing, in my book.

It seems we've been robbed of a perfectly good 6-month and 1-year cycle synchronous down-phase somewhere along the line. Nov. 20th, that wild-ass down day out of the blue, may well have been the last powering down forces of the 6 month and 1-year cycles, and that was all the market gave us. The good news is I nailed that one for a power slide intraday. At least I can feel good about that.

Or have we? I still have red crap in an indicator panel rolling over at 100%, on the daily charts, though there are other underlying forces still powering up that may make the rollover of the red stuff a tame affair indeed. See the charts in my LOB thread for an idea of the longer duration forces at work.
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#587 patriot

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 01:06 AM

RSI


Just read a 12/19 article by Andy Stout of Schaeffer's research.

He gave statisitics on the Dow 10 week RSI average. He states that when the Dow reaches a RSI of 75 or higher the Maret has had at least a temporary pullback or a market reversal. Claims has happened 12 times since 98. Ave decline has been 9%. The biggest drop was 25 % from May 25/01 to Sept 21,01.


the RSI as of fri was 74.67%.

This high water mark occured 3 x's in 98/2x's in 99/ 2x's in 00/ 1x in 01
/1 x's 02/ and if it hits (very close) this will be the 4th time in 03.

Maybe Doc or some of you tech guys have a opinion on this.


Best Day

patriot

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 01:07 AM

Mousey Dung,  John Hussman mentiones your beloved Xilinx as one of the most overvalued stocks.  :lol:   :lol:

Bait & Tackle

Thank AG, you know I have no problem with going long, and have when I thought it was profitable, but it's so depressing to think you're entering a short at such a fat point for a profit and then see it rise almost 10% more. The P/E both trailing and forward are outrageous and yet it keeps going. If there isn't a break soon, I could be looking at the next support being built.
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If you give me a $3 drop I'll be your friend. . . . :rolleyes:

#589 dozer

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 01:12 AM

gold's up a buck....did they raise the alert level another notch ?? :P

#590 Goldmember

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 01:42 AM

I'm with Doc on this one. Alert levels mean squat, news means squat, other than a day or two reaction and return to action already underway.

Look at 1962-66 as an example.

The world was awash in apocalyptic chaos, they even killed Kennedy..... and the market annihilated the bears anyway. :blink:

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Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#591 patriot

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 01:44 AM

Futures are worsening.


As of 11:30 pm ECT.


NSDQ100 -750// NASDAQ Mar 04 -800

Anybody with a more recent update?

Best Day

patriot

#592 dozer

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 01:44 AM

tanks for the link to that Hussman report.

it was interesting reading.

#593 dozer

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 01:50 AM

HONG KONG, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Chinese gold firm Fujian Zijin Mining Industry Co Ltd priced its IPO at the top end of its range on Monday and said its public offer was 744 times subscribed, making it the most popular listing here since 1997

got gold ? :lol:

#594 dozer

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 01:59 AM

He's one of the best there is, he always seems to be on the right side of the market. His fund never goes net short, and he's from 0% to 100% net invested long. So currently he's a little less than 50% net long, but with some out of the money puts just in case he has to go to fully hedged (0% long). I realize you can read, but in case you haven't read his past commentaries maybe what he wrote didn't sink in the 1st time.


yah, i struggle through it letter by letter... :lol: :lol: :lol:

tanks AG....I almost quoted some snippets here too....for those who might've missed the link. You posted a good summary.

He's a long-fund guy, but he sure sounds like he's watching things like a hawk right now, eh?

i.e....I got the feeling that he thinks things are on the verge of rolling over.... :unsure:

#595 Brisbane Bear

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 02:03 AM

here is a question...just say you are expecting a pullback from say 1089 on the S&P to around 1078 or thereabouts,does the futures action count?

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 02:10 AM

Futures are worsening.


As of 11:30 pm ECT.


NSDQ100 -750// NASDAQ Mar 04 -800

Anybody with a more recent update?

Best Day

patriot

Put this on your favorites Patriot.
http://www.cme.com/dta/del/globex.html

#597 patriot

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 02:40 AM

Mousey Dung,



Thanks but i do have cme on favorite. But i guess the question is is (one of those double things) the time reference ECT? Ah lets see, perhaps patriot the Chicago
Mercantile Exchange is in a different time zone. No kidding.

Any opinion on the Schaeffer comments re: 10 wk rsi when it bangs 75?

Best Day

patriot..

#598 alborz

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 02:54 AM

HONG KONG, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Chinese gold firm Fujian Zijin Mining Industry Co Ltd priced its IPO at the top end of its range on Monday and said its public offer was 744 times subscribed, making it the most popular listing here since 1997

got gold ? :lol:

This is related to a question I have that confuses me to no end. Obviously if yuan is revaluated then the price of gold will drop in yuan - right? So if you live in China you shouldn't buy gold - yet. Case in point is what happened to gold in Europe the past year. But what about mining shares? Would it not mimic the Sout African experience? So again it should not be a good buy in general (I don't know about the specifics of this company).

Also, I think the Shanghai SM being at 52 week lows is also telegraphing something. Is it that yuan is will be revaluated shortly and would that not cause all china equities to get a whacking? Would it not be the opposite of S&P/US$ relationship?

Whatever -- I don't think there is any safe store of capital anymore anywhere.

#599 dozer

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 03:03 AM

"Whatever -- I don't think there is any safe store of capital anymore anywhere."

Boy, that sure sounds right :P


Patriot: if any of the 3 events of 2003 were between March and now, then perhaps it has relevance; but if they were prior to March, then I think it's iffy. Market is being manipulated differently post-march...not sure any pre-March patterns work any more...

just my opinion of course.

g'night all.

#600 mjkst27

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 03:10 AM

In fairness to McKillop, say the price of oil doubles tomorrow. Will oil use be cut in half? I doubt it - it will go down some, but not half. So what you have then is an increase, and probably a big one, in money velocity in the global economy due simply to the fact that the price of oil has risen. While this may be bad for the US economy proper, it is certainly bullish for everyone in the energy supply chain, which is enormous, and all of the trickle-downs from there. And that is a lot of economic activity, just that much of it is outside the US due to the fact that we don't pump much oil here anymore.

A healthy (growing) global economy needs increasing money velocity, not necessarily a growing money supply. In other words, money needs to change hands faster, more transactions made, goods bought, services rendered, before those individual dollars dive back into the banking system from whence they were born in the form of P&I payments. Also, the US right now needs its trade partners to grow faster than itself, in order to alleve the current account balance. Maybe a high oil price ain't all bad.





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