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#571

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Posted 21 December 2003 - 11:45 PM

So do I Dozer, lol... still up 0.8% atm with 1.25 hrs to go but as I said earlier, the volume is so light that I'm loathe to speculate on what's gonna happen in the US tonite...

#572 dozer

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Posted 21 December 2003 - 11:51 PM

"McKillop is a goofball. Fade him."

:lol:

roger that MH....was immediately doubtful anyway...just didn't jibe with my own experience or common-sense.

In the early 70's, I was living 25mi west of Boston, and had to park the Plymouth when it got so bad that I was waiting almost an hour in line to get $2 of gas (stations were rationing).

Got out the Kawasaki 350 dirt-bike (70+ mpg), put on my snowmobile suit, and rode that damn thing to work and back, 50 miles a day....in New England winter weather. :P

I think about it now, and I can't imagine doing anything that stupidly dangerous...but I was 17 then :lol:

#573 alceringa

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:08 AM

Here's The Cowasaki........... Is that Dozer at the helm?:o

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#574 machinehead

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:11 AM

Got out the Kawasaki 350 dirt-bike (70+ mpg), put on my snowmobile suit, and rode that damn thing to work and back, 50 miles a day....in New England winter weather. :P

I think about it now, and I can't imagine doing anything that stupidly dangerous...but I was 17 then :lol:

If gas is rationed again, there will be a lot fewer cars on the roads. Using the bike for transport would be my first response to rationing. (i.e., fill up the truck, then siphon the gas into the bike)

I remember a green light / red light system used in N.J. in 1979. Don't recall any gas lines in Texas in 1973/74, although I did see a bumper sticker saying "Drive 90, Freeze a Yankee." (The yankees had their revenge during the oil patch crash of the mid-1980s, when all of the major Texas banks got merged into, or purchased by, out-of-state interests.)
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#575 Pee Brain

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:16 AM

Plunger,

RE $US woes

This is the problem...when it hits the mainstream press and especially when the "experts" start to warn about the dire consequences of the "plunging dollar..its over,it should bounce very strongly from here...where were the experts the last 6 months or so as the dollar plunged,not much use warning us now,the damage has already been done...Doc was one of the very few who knew well in advance..kudos Doc.


bris,

was thinking the exact same thing. if they get the USD rolling upward, short covering could give it some gas.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#576 Goldmember

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:16 AM

Onne thing I know about the model I use is that at the tail end of a move sometimes cmaps extend, and then the market refuses to follow.  For example, the 1100 6 month cycle cmap has been around off and on for a couple of months. Nothing else pointed above 1089. Now that we hit numbers which were stable for quite awhile, suddelnly everything looks to be aimed a little higher. I've seen this phenomenon at both highs and lows. A move up tomorrw would confirm the new targets. A good down day, would probably negate them.  

But the upturn in the longer term cmaps is really worrisome. They occured because some long term moving averages are starting to slope upward. It would be very weird for them to suddenly turn down, immediately after turning up.  It happens on a smaller scale from time to time. But I can't remember seeing it in a 78 week moving average.

Great post Doc.

In my limited time doing this I have seen the same thing following shorter terms like the 13-day or 6-7 week cycles. Right when a pair of ma's look to cross they suddenly don't and then trend together without crossing. Then they have the absolute audacity to actually start widening the seperation instead of crossing. That is what has happened on my Dow charts for the 6-7 week cycle top fishing. Just when I begin to think they aren't going to cross the market throws up a finger and promptly dives, pulling the ma's into a cross over and confirmation. This I have seen on 13-day cycles during this up-phase constantly, especially so if it's the first 13-day cycle in 6-7 week or 6-month cycle.

I have no idea if it can do the same thing on the longer duration charts but this is daily data in the chart below and a little more responsive to turning ma's than a weekly chart.

In the red/blue pair the blue one is curving in and downward to a crossover with the red one, which should theoretically mark the half-way point of the move. The actual crossover looks poised to occur in about 2-3 weeks time. A more accurate measurement can occur at this point since I will no longer have to guess for a target. Then it's up to the market to either get there or not. The range seems to be 1120-1175 for a top, quite possibly hitting the upper band. I have a bunch of ma's poised and ready for action as targets in that zone.

Also looking for the 6-7 week cycle to pong off the yellow band for a decent down-phase, and then up to the targets on the charts.

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#577 Brisbane Bear

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:28 AM

Goldmember,

You confidently predicted the Dow was gunna drop 1800 points a week back,any updates to this prediction?

How much of an expert do you consider yourself,how long have you studied T/A .

You like Hurst,any other areas of T/A to compliment your analyse?

tia Bris

#578 dozer

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:31 AM

Here's The Cowasaki........... Is that Dozer at the helm?:o

:lol: :lol: :lol:

#579 dozer

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:37 AM

mousey, pay attention, or you'll miss it... :lol:

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:41 AM

mousey, pay attention, or you'll miss it... :lol:

I'm here! I'm here! I'm here!
I hadn't even looked at the board for the last hour but, something told me. . . .

#581 T_Minus

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:42 AM

Well, fxfox wrote:
If you look again at price action after 1985 you will now realize why Prechter and other voodoo-priests thought world would go down after 1987. They thought that dollar crash is an indicator. It wasnt.

AND IT WONT BE THIS TIME. World will not go down.



Whistling through the grave yard. How nice. THIS IS NOT 1987. AT ALL. What caused 1987? The 1986 oil price collapse that hit the market like crack cocaine.
Mr. Market SHOULD have gotten all excited. The thing is, the oil price crash was REAL, and it was REAL GOOD for the biggest consumer of oil, America. Oil crashed now? No? Well that would be game for your comparison. But let's look at interest rates to. In the "depths" of the 1980s 10 year rates did not go below 7%. We are now at 4%. I would make the observation that one is ALOT less than the other.
Of course, shorter durations are worse. That would be Game Two for your comparision. Now, for Game Three I will utilize a full court press of Current Account, Net Creditor/Net Debtor, and Budget Deficit. Combined, they DESTROY any comparison with 1987. I could go to Game Four, but I'm bored.

#582 An Ant

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:43 AM

Futures already recovering.
Looks like retail numbers have more impact than alert level

I cann't wait for 2004

#583 bearvest

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:49 AM

But the upturn in the longer term cmaps is really worrisome. They occured because some long term moving averages are starting to slope upward. It would be very weird for them to suddenly turn down, immediately after turning up. It happens on a smaller scale from time to time. But I can't remember seeing it in a 78 week moving average.

Doc-- I keep Granville OBV charts on the DOW even though program trading and

hedging has ended their efficacy as indicators of accumulation and distribution. I

do so only to have an indicator that is based on criteria apart from price alone.

It looked like a top on Wednesday as the daily indicator, what Granville called the

"Climax Indicator", fell against the new high.

Thursday's rise made no sense. It did the same thing in June, August, September

and November. It gave a top signal, only to be followed by strength.

This time is different. The intermediate trends have also all risen sharply in the last

two days from bearish to bullish levels( what Granville calls the "Net Field

Indicator"). He describes it in his book, " Granville's New Strategy of Daily Stock

Market Timing" and his later books. (Credit given).

On that analysis, we are still one to three weeks away from a top, if we're not in a

bull market.

I follow you religiously, with my OBV charts and Elliott Wave studies.

Everything was set to fall out of bed mid-week, last week, and it didn't.

Not that I'd go long at these lofty levels, but there's something afoot that's bad

news, short-term, for the bears.

Bearvest
Make dust, or you'll be left in the dust of others.

#584 Jimi

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:49 AM

FWIW, my personal terror alert is only at Elevated/Blue.
Sure glad all my albums went GOLD.
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#585 dozer

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Posted 22 December 2003 - 12:51 AM

Futures already recovering.
Looks like retail numbers have more impact than alert level

I cann't wait for 2004

:lol: :lol:

Ant, I think you just nicely summed up the "sense of stool" this week :lol:





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