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A Cataclysm Coming This Way 12/18/03


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#16 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:55 AM

I don't follow Turkey but I do know the country has a chronic inflation problem. So the market might not actually be up that much if you take inflation/fx into account.

#17 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:00 AM

I admit to being mystified by the whole 'money' thing - how it's counted, where it goes, and all that.

But to my simplistic brain, the easiest way for money to 'disappear', as we've been seeing, is by default.  Perhaps the record bankruptcy rate is playing into this?

Secondarily, it's pretty obvious that banks have not been lending very much lately, particularly the C&I stuff.  This is because, as Noland will point out, when the debt markets are this forgiving who needs a crummy bank loan?

Record debt issuance by savory and unsavory players alike = no need to borrow from banks.

Further, consumers are borrowing less now that the refi game has slowed.

All this adds up to reduced M3 even in the face of massive gubermint deficit spending.  Not good.

check this out...

Making Sense of Money Supply Data


i beat this drum over at prubear for the last 12 weeks, and all anyone could say
was "noland says"...

i don't define "off-balance" sheet monetization as liquidity, but banking bagholders
merely propping up their books.

a la japan.

inflows into equities appear to be the real driver, that an al's magic fingers.

stock buy backs... etal.

all in the name of propping up paper.

i believe the fed's letting us baghold more of this bubble-bag over the last quarter.

we'll see, but it's not looking to bullish on the roc front for broad aggs, but
then things are rarely as they appear.

#18 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:02 AM

I don't follow Turkey but I do know the country has a chronic inflation problem. So the market might not actually be up that much if you take inflation/fx into account.

emerging market's are parking lots for the the criminals, as soon as they need
the dough, down they'll go. latin america sure looks like a giant parking lot.

#19 Bearbones

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:03 AM

Lots of interesting questions in here. Another one is: will there be a January effect this year? The Effect is the tendency of small cap stocks to outperform the market from mid-December to mid-January.

With the market seeming to peak here, it's hard to see it this time around. Unless you can find certain sectors of small caps which aren't correlated to the market as a whole...

Lots of technical stuff has failed this year including the "sell in May and go away" refrain. Too many eyeing the same thing. In order for the market to capture as many as possible for the next slide, it may have to do it out of sight of the masses of eyeballs. That means a greater extension of the moves beyond the attention span of those seeking to catch the turns. In hindsight it may all make sense, but in the meantime you could lose a lot of money trying to game this either short or long.

#20 machinehead

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:03 AM

Bill Gross of PIMCO -- the largest fixed-income fund in the universe outside the central banksters -- names "commodities and tangible assets" as his No. 1 investment preference. "Foreign currencies" are 2nd. Radical advice indeed, coming from a U.S.-based fixed income investor. Wouldn't you like to be a fly on the wall in Pimco's conference room, as Gross rages about the Greenman and the Snowman?

Bill Gross investment outlook

Gross may be talking up his own positions, but at least he's trying to provide some insight to his readers.

Compare that to Clapvision this morning, where Goldman Sucks, via CBNC shill Steve Liesman, is bullhorning the "Inflation To Stay Low in 2004" theme. Rising commod prices and a falling doolar don't matter, say Goldman/Liesman, steppin' and fetchin' for their GE corporate masters. We have an "output gap." And commodity prices don't feed through to the PPI/CPI anyway.

Well, they have a point there. The jiggered statistics lie, for sure. But you can't trade the CPI. So what's the point, other than "take your Prozac, do your shopping, and stay tuned to this channel"?
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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#21 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:05 AM

Bill Gross of PIMCO -- the largest fixed-income fund in the universe outside the central banksters -- names "commodities and tangible assets" as his No. 1 investment preference. "Foreign currencies" are 2nd. Radical advice indeed, coming from a U.S.-based fixed income investor. Wouldn't you like to be a fly on the wall in Pimco's conference room, as Gross rages about the Greenman and the Snowman?

Bill Gross investment outlook

Gross may be talking up his own positions, but at least he's trying to provide some insight to his readers.

Compare that to Clapvision this morning, where Goldman Sucks, via CBNC shill Steve Liesman, is bullhorning the "Inflation To Stay Low in 2004" theme. Rising commod prices and a falling doolar don't matter, say Goldman/Liesman, steppin' and fetchin' for their GE corporate masters. We have an "output gap." And commodity prices don't feed through to the PPI/CPI anyway.

Well, they have a point there. The jiggered statistics lie, for sure. But you can't trade the CPI. So what's the point, other than "take your Prozac, do your shopping, and stay tuned to this channel"?

somehow, i dunno, but somehow when this mess begins to implode... it would
seem rates of return on about anything become asymtotic (sp)?

#22 Bearbones

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:13 AM

Bill Gross of PIMCO -- the largest fixed-income fund in the universe outside the central banksters -- names "commodities and tangible assets" as his No. 1 investment preference. "Foreign currencies" are 2nd. Radical advice indeed, coming from a U.S.-based fixed income investor. Wouldn't you like to be a fly on the wall in Pimco's conference room, as Gross rages about the Greenman and the Snowman?

Bill Gross investment outlook

Gross may be talking up his own positions, but at least he's trying to provide some insight to his readers.

Compare that to Clapvision this morning, where Goldman Sucks, via CBNC shill Steve Liesman, is bullhorning the "Inflation To Stay Low in 2004" theme. Rising commod prices and a falling doolar don't matter, say Goldman/Liesman, steppin' and fetchin' for their GE corporate masters. We have an "output gap." And commodity prices don't feed through to the PPI/CPI anyway.

Well, they have a point there. The jiggered statistics lie, for sure. But you can't trade the CPI. So what's the point, other than "take your Prozac, do your shopping, and stay tuned to this channel"?

Pimco has a good real return fund, one of two that I am aware of. The fund is called "Commodity Real Return" and uses TIPS as collateral for commodity positions. The no-load version symbol is PCRDX. Oppenheimer has one as well but it uses corporate bonds as collateral. The symbol is QRAAX. Pimco's fund is up nearly 30% this year on the "A" shares. Oppenheimer's up nearly 25%.

#23 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:15 AM

after pointing out to mousey that 15 minute chart on XLNX looked bullish,
i managed to fade myself into a large loss there. sat and watched it
blow up, didn't bother to hedge as long that mess seems too dangerous.

got beaten ugly with it, and can't quite figure out where this wild beast
is headed.

brain's been whipsawed, comments appreciated, still short 10K 36.75.

#24 Sphinxter

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:19 AM

$%$&*$! :angry:

How did I know that a jam was coming?

Posted Image

#25 Bird D Durr

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:21 AM

Well, they have a point there. The jiggered statistics lie, for sure. But you can't trade the CPI. So what's the point, other than "take your Prozac, do your shopping, and stay tuned to this channel"?

Machine............

Make sure to wash down those pills with some fine ripple............

To heighten the effect.................

#26 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:21 AM

$%$&*$! :angry:

How did I know that a jam was coming?

Posted Image

will it last, dunno. but i aint getting long here for nothing.

#27 OceanBound

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:23 AM

http://www.capitalst...?showtopic=4402


Why not a major Grand Super Cycle Bear market rally? Explain to me why this ramp up will not work again? It is all just mania anyway. Fundamentals and fiat money and debt do not stop a mania and when it goes up it feeds itself...... right? :ph34r:

#28 Ned38

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:24 AM

after pointing out to mousey that 15 minute chart on XLNX looked bullish,
i managed to fade myself into a large loss there. sat and watched it
blow up, didn't bother to hedge as long that mess seems too dangerous.

got beaten ugly with it, and can't quite figure out where this wild beast
is headed.

brain's been whipsawed, comments appreciated, still short 10K 36.75.

Yep uh huh

Made a bad trade the other day and just watched my money go away

Brain scramble

Trading smaller 'till I get a real feel

#29 DrStool

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:25 AM

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#30 GregFokker

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 10:25 AM

Yep uh huh

Made a bad trade the other day and just watched my money go away

Brain scramble

Trading smaller 'till I get a real feel

Me yestiddy. Hypnotized.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty






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