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A Cataclysm Coming This Way 12/18/03


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#1

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 08:34 AM

. . . from The Daily Reckoning; long but good in a truly one-of-a-kind writing style . . .

. . . Then [Joshua] Bolten, and notice that I have dropped the "Mr." because I am obviously working myself into one of my foul moods and I am this far away (let the record show that I am holding up my thumb and forefinger, and that they are almost touching each other) from calling him a lowlife insect, probably something that crawls around in sewers, then says that the budget deficit is "entirely manageable, if we continue the president's strong pro-growth economic policies and sound fiscal restraint." . . .

. . . . . . . . . .AND DOC JUST REACHED 20K:

From Oversized Charts on IDS today . . .

Many of you may not be aware of this. Larger charts which are uploaded to the site are presented in the thread as a thumbnail. Click the pic in the thread and it will open the pic a separate window. Step two- IE has a a built in enlarger. Hold your curser (I curse you motherfornicater) over the lower right corner of the graphic in the new window. In a second, a hidden button will appear. Click it to enlarge the chart.

This does not apply to hotlinked charts. For those really gargantuan graphics that distort the thread, rather than hotlinking the graphic, please, just link to the page the pic is located on.

Tanks!



#2 DrStool

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 08:50 AM

twenty thousand posts. how sick is that. :lol:

And Glad has read every single one of them. :lol: :lol: :lol:

And it doesn't even count Stooltrading. Heh heh. just corrected a typo. "Stooltraining"

You know, this has not been a good year for bears. But Capitalstool.com has ridden out the storm and is doing just fine, thanks to people like Glad and all of you. The Stool will be around for years to come, regardless of what kind of market it is. Because we're about more than just trading. We're about fighting the never ending battle for Truth, Justice, and the Astoolian Way!

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#3 GregFokker

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 08:55 AM

Well well well. Friday. Opex Friday. The Day After.

TGIF.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#4 DrStool

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:00 AM

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#5 Hiding Bear

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:04 AM

Got milk? International milk and dairy products company Parmalat doesn’t. The Black Hole that opened in the Bermuda Triangle over Paramalt’s balance sheet looks even bigger today.

“Bank of America does not recognize the authenticity of a document dated March 6, 2003, which attested to the existence of positions in securities and cash corresponding to roughly 3.95 billion euros as of December 31, 2002”

Parmalat entered into derivative contracts with hedge funds and other “offshore” companies, through the help of Citicorpse, to invest its €4.2billion in current assets.
Now the money not only can not be accessed, but some of the money can’t even be found. Parmalat, which has about €6bn in debt, last week barely avoided default on a €150m bond. The company is in discussions to avoid default on $400m payment due to investors in its main holding company in Brazil.

http://www.nytimes.c...d-parmalat.html

MILAN -- Parmalat SpA's financial crisis dramatically worsened Friday as it said Bank of America Corp. informed it that the bank isn't holding the €3.95 billion ($4.91 billion) in liquidity it reported on its books in September.
Parmalat said Bank of America has disavowed the authenticity of a document stating the cash-strapped dairy group's Bonlat Financing Corp. unit held €3.95 billion in cash and cash equivalents in an account there as of Dec. 31, 2002. The bank also said that on Dec. 17 it had advised Bonlat's accountants, Grant Thornton, that the Cayman Islands-based Bonlat didn't have an account at Bank of America.

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#6 DrStool

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:10 AM

Current headlines from the Wall Street Urinal. Reload the Urinal frequently throughout the day for all the latest headlines from Dow Jokes, Boomblurb, Rhoiders, TheSheeit.com, CNN Moneyhype, and other news and infomercial sources from around the world. The links are above right, in the left menu, and below the thread. Wall Street Urinal
All the news that fits, we print.


Oil prices up slightly...
CNN Money: Markets & Stocks - 12/19/03 07:52am


HEADLINE STOCKS - U.S. stocks to watch on Dec. 19...
Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 07:28am


CORRECTED-UPDATE 1-Salesforce.com files $115 mln IPO...
Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 07:28am


UPDATE 1-Salesforce.com files $115 mln IPO...
Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 07:28am


BNP Paribas, IBM To Set Up Joint IT Services Company...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 07:24am


WTC Architects To Unveil Revised Freedom Tower Design...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 07:24am


EU OKs Celestica Buy of Manfacturers Services Ltd....
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 07:24am


NEWS SNAP: Gold Fields Ventures Into South America...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 07:24am


Eurostocks start higher...
CNN Money: Markets & Stocks - 12/19/03 07:16am


Asia gets a Wall St. boost...
CNN Money: Markets & Stocks - 12/19/03 07:16am


Parmalat Calls Emergency Meeting as Bank of America Contests $4.9 Billion...
Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 07:10am


German Parliament Backs $11 Billion in Tax Cuts and Welfare-System Changes...
Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 07:10am


anal cyst is recommending Capital One...
The Wall Street Transcript Daily Notes - 12/19/03 06:34am


CFO of WesBanco says their goal is to increase return on equity...
The Wall Street Transcript Daily Notes - 12/19/03 06:34am


anal cyst likes Apollo Group...
The Wall Street Transcript Daily Notes - 12/19/03 06:34am


Stock rally reloads...
CNN Money: Markets & Stocks - 12/19/03 06:30am


PacifiCare declares 2-for-1 stock split...
Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 06:26am


Parmalat Auditor May Make Statement Friday On BoA Account...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 06:20am


EU OKs Texas Pacific, J.P. Morgan Buy Of Kraton Polymers...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 06:20am


LukOIl Signs $330 Million Pact...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 06:20am


BAT Can't Renew Philip Morris Contract When It Buys ETI...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 06:20am


Lufthansa To Cancel Frankfurt-Phoenix Flights From Feb 1...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 06:20am


European Stocks Including Siemens, LVMH Rise; Drugmakers' Shares Decline...
Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 06:06am


UPDATE 1-Medion CFO says Aldi relationship, goals intact...
Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 05:22am


UPDATE 1-China Life raises IPO by 15 pct to US$3.46 bln...
Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 05:22am


Acambis Says Baxter Sells Stake,Comml Deals Not Affected...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 05:16am


Komercni Banka To Sell Stake In Payment Processing Co...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 05:16am


NEWS SNAP: Parmalat Crisis Worsens As Cash Vaporizes...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 05:16am


Parmalat Bonds Plunge After BofA Disavows Bank Account...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 05:16am


Parmalat Shares Suspended Limit Down - Italian Exchange...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 05:16am


Parmalat Says Board to Meet Friday >PRF.MI...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 05:16am


Parmalat's Bondi Calls Board Meeting After Bank of America Contests Cash...
Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 05:02am


Gucci Posts First Profit Gain in Three Quarters on New Handbags, Perfumes...
Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 05:02am


Vista Group Starts Trading On AIM In London...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am


Parmalat Shares Suspended -2: May Open At 0830GMT...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am


Toyota President: Still Far Behind Ford In Global Sales Terms...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am


Ex-Lyonnais Chairman Says Left By Roadside In Executive Life Case...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am


Rolls-Royce Signs Expressjet $720 Million Deal...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am


US GE Consumer Finance To Buy Singapore Auto Finance Co...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am


Strategic Retail Starts Trading On AIM In London...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am


Aldata Solution Names Neil Thall VP Of US, Canada Opers...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am


Parmalat Says Bank of America Contests Company's $4.9 Billon Cash Holdings...
Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 04:00am


Stocks in Europe Rise on Growth Prospects; Siemens, Allianz Shares Advance...
Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 04:00am


What holiday? Asian banks see busiest Dec in years...
Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 03:14am


Viacom, Comcast Sign Deal for Multiyear TV Distribution...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 03:08am


Parmalat/Liquidity -2: Fresh Concerns Over Cash Assets...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 03:08am


Altana To File For European Approval For Daxas Feb 2004...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 03:08am


NTT DoCoMo To Invest Y37 Billion In 3G Cellphone Devt Next 2 Yrs...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 03:08am


Italy's BNL Will Sell Agent Network To RAS For EUR100 Million...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 03:08am


France's SFL Withdraws Sophia Bid; Clears Way For GE...
Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 03:08am

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#7 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:17 AM

Well well well. Friday. Opex Friday. The Day After.

TGIF.

dunno bout you, but looking for a mr toad's wild ride to conitnue, whippy as hell.

#8 chibear

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:18 AM

Jeeez. Turkey is up over 50% since September and I don't own share 1. Who covers Turkey around here?





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#9 HiHat

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:22 AM

The crescendo of bullish outlook on every media venue
you care to look at is TOTAL.......

Gore must have been right........"what's up is down; what's down
is up"...........................................................

Things have changed: 90% of traders make all the money, 10% lose
............................... 10% who lose are always BEARS........

#10 machinehead

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:22 AM

Well well well.  Friday.  Opex Friday.  The Day After.

TGIF.

There seems to be a little conflict between post-OpEx reversal and holiday seasonality. Maybe one reason that VIX is so low, is that the next two weeks feature fewer hours of trading, lower volume, and therefore smaller expected movement in prices. But options time value keeps ticking away at the usual rate. Ergo, implied volatility should be discounted in advance.

We're less than 4 weeks away from the fourth anniversary of the DJIA's 14 Jan 2000 all-time high. The turn in the 4-year cycle could be expected any time. Despite being an election year, 2000 was a down year. It could happen again in 2004.

I'm still pondering the continued skrinkage in the money supply reflected in the Fed releases last night. How long can Wall Street's rocket keep rising when the fuel supply is sputtering out? Only until gravity takes hold.

Finally, 12+19+03 (today's date) adds up to a Fibo 34. It just has a gnarly look to me. Maybe the astrologers can figure it out. Last month they said the Dec. 10-13 period was dangerous for Cheney, but Saddam got captured. Right timing, wrong guy. :huh:
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

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- our jickiss

#11 DrStool

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:24 AM

After considering the near tie vote, Doc has decided to make the popup thumbnail market overview window a permanent feature of the site. This compact window contains the latest intraday thumbnail charts on the SPX, gold and precious metals indices from Kitco, as well as a market summary applet from Barchart.com and form boxes for detailed quotes and market statistics. The window has minimal graphics beyond the essentials, so that it uses few server and processor resources, loads quickly, and gives you the tools you need all in one convenient reduced size window. You can also toggle the window back and forth with the Wall Street Urinal, to quickly scan all the latest newsnoise headlines. The links to this window are located in the upper right of this page, in the left column, and below the thread.

Market Stats and
Thumbnail Charts


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#12 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:34 AM

There seems to be a little conflict between post-OpEx reversal and holiday seasonality. Maybe one reason that VIX is so low, is that the next two weeks feature fewer hours of trading, lower volume, and therefore smaller expected movement in prices. But options time value keeps ticking away at the usual rate. Ergo, implied volatility should be discounted in advance.

We're less than 4 weeks away from the fourth anniversary of the DJIA's 14 Jan 2000 all-time high. The turn in the 4-year cycle could be expected any time. Despite being an election year, 2000 was a down year. It could happen again in 2004.

I'm still pondering the continued skrinkage in the money supply reflected in the Fed releases last night. How long can Wall Street's rocket keep rising when the fuel supply is sputtering out? Only until gravity takes hold.

Finally, 12+19+03 (today's date) adds up to a Fibo 34. It just has a gnarly look to me. Maybe the astrologers can figure it out. Last month they said the Dec. 10-13 period was dangerous for Cheney, but Saddam got captured. Right timing, wrong guy. :huh:

those roc's imply the pace of liquidity is slowing down markedly, which by any
rationale measure, would suggest bubble trouble ---- dead ahead.

unfortunately, i'm not convinced just yet the aggregates are painting an accurate
picture. the dough had to go somewhere, where is it?

if this money poured back into the "markets" then perhaps it's merely an issue
of ownership and ledger entry?

#13

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:38 AM

Jeeez. Turkey is up over 50% since September and I don't own share 1. Who covers Turkey around here?

Feel free to become our Turkey correspondent ;)

#14 Sphinxter

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:40 AM

those roc's imply the pace of liquidity  is slowing down markedly, which by any
rationale measure, would suggest bubble trouble ---- dead ahead.

unfortunately, i'm not convinced just yet the aggregates are painting an accurate
picture. the dough had to go somewhere, where is it?

if this money poured back into the "markets" then perhaps it's merely an issue
of ownership and ledger entry?

I admit to being mystified by the whole 'money' thing - how it's counted, where it goes, and all that.

But to my simplistic brain, the easiest way for money to 'disappear', as we've been seeing, is by default. Perhaps the record bankruptcy rate is playing into this?

Secondarily, it's pretty obvious that banks have not been lending very much lately, particularly the C&I stuff. This is because, as Noland will point out, when the debt markets are this forgiving who needs a crummy bank loan?

Record debt issuance by savory and unsavory players alike = no need to borrow from banks.

Further, consumers are borrowing less now that the refi game has slowed.

All this adds up to reduced M3 even in the face of massive gubermint deficit spending. Not good.

#15 Slothrop

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Posted 19 December 2003 - 09:42 AM

Lots of interesting questions in here. Another one is: will there be a January effect this year? The Effect is the tendency of small cap stocks to outperform the market from mid-December to mid-January.

With the market seeming to peak here, it's hard to see it this time around. Unless you can find certain sectors of small caps which aren't correlated to the market as a whole...





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