5 Step Rally Process
644 replies to this topic
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:15 PM
When I look into my toddler's smiling face ... I see no deceit, con... just pure Joy.
Guess it depends on where you look.
And a bottle of good wine and great sex brings me closer to God than shotgun ever would.
Besides, a bottle of wine results in a satisfying piss.... blood stains will sully the carpet and the cleaning lady will curse your soul till heavens bleed..
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:22 PM
I was a little downhearted earlier this week...but today I had some spare time to read Daily Reckoning and Mogambo Guru again...once more, I am re-vitalized, confident that this crap is going be such a bowl-splasher wall-mops and a change of undies will be required...
quoted by theMogambo Guru
I tho't this was a lucid & plausible explanation of something I hadn't been able to grok before...
If the M's are all in decline, but we haven't seen the economic impacts we expect, then Wndy's explanation (also HT!) also makes sense: Debt is Money, and the swelling Capital-D-Debt outweighs the shrinking Ms?
But what I see, now, is that this proves that the Ms & Debt are different. So I believe one day economic gravity will return, and basic economic maths will once more be in effect, and there will be a reckoning.
So I feel better! How bout you?
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:31 PM
and this from Bill Bonner at Daily Reckoning...the Japanese "improving" economic numbers result from their accountants adapting advanced american practices...
It IS just like Enron, in this regard, HOW DO THEY THINK THEY ARE GOING TO GETAWAY WITH THIS?
Skilling was snotty to conference call anal cysts who got out of line right up to the end.
Someone posted something yesterday about the advent of Hedonic Employment Figures...
I feel great! This crap has gotta stop sometime!
But then I'm more attuned to virulent, emotion-based tirades about macro issues than technical charts, so I still believe the big Crash is coming, not a eeny drop, or a slow decline, a crash. ST, IT, or LT I don't know. But I still like it here, even tho' I am a LT sell-and-hold former sheeple.
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:34 PM
Rumor has it another 1,400 slated to be removed from AT&T before the end of the year. Looks like holiday job hunt rush this year...
Nuts roasting on an open fire
Rumor has it another sweeping round of layoffs at Worldcom come Christmas time.
Even Google's movin peepes to India
Layoffs at AOL still rockin... out of control. 60% of West Coast AOL workers jobless...
Woodworkers Warehouse, which operated 100 stores in 10 states, is outta business.
change the * to a u
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:41 PM
It's because it is all about denial.
Probably 0.01% of the population can handle the concepts that permeate this board. It's not a Democrat or Republican thing. It's not a Muslium vs. a Mormon thing.
It's about the ability to handle the truth.
The "truth" is that our entire way of life and, in truth, civilization as we know it is due for an, um, correction. Look around you and think about how many of the things you see that are based on oil. See the lamp over there? Can't mine, process, roll, press and shape steel without oil. Feel the chair under your ass? Unless you are sitting on a section of log, it is all oil.
The 'truth' is that everything you see and know around you is an illusion in the sense that it will not exist in that form in 100 years. Oil will run out in 10-20 years. The world population will be 3 billion, again, in 40.
And we all know this. We know, in our deepest darkest parts, that everything we are living today is completely unsustainable. And some would ask, so what? Today, it may be that the most rational possible response is to say "I am going to drink the best wine, and I am going to fly to the best spots, and I am going to enjoy myself to the fullest, because, well, why not?". And some would say "prepare and survive". Grasshopper and ant. Both are rational, just opposite. Yin and Yang
Many, many, many people will be burned and screwed soon and will not make it to the next round. O.K. Such is their fate. I am a staunch Libertarian in the sense that I believe we are each responsible for ourselves and not upon the kindess and wisdom of our 'leaders', or gubmint, or whomever it is that 'should' be behaving more responsibly.
Eff 'em. It is incontrovertable that GREAT mistakes are being made today. In my opionion they are irrecoverable, irredeemable, horrible, and noxious. All who are not paying attention will pay a great price.
But I have accepted that the situation is what it is. I can't even make my own goddamn family understand the risks, so I am, by extension, utterly and completely powerless to affect the outcome of our national/world irrationality.
So, ... let them have their last few moments of fun. Let everyone have as good a time as they can. PARTY ON! It really, doesn't matter anymore.
All that matters to me is knowing that it will be a sized down group that carries on and that me, and mine, will be among them. I now focus on how to prepare not for the collapse, but for the aftermath. I take the collapse as a given. So I now have my mind on what comes next. It's about how to re-build now. I need to direct my energies towards the solution, whatever that may be.
I trade the markets every day, and very aggresively at that, but that is but a diversion. My real work is how I interact with and teach my kids, the strength of my relationship with my wife (who is beyond compare) and the steps that I(we) take everyday to become more skilled, more knowledgable, and stronger to be ready for what is next.
Whatever it is, it is not what you see today.
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:44 PM
It's looks to me like turds swirling the bowl with cash from the Nasty tech crap and other high betas rotating to a safe within the prospectus home, the vehicle of choice being the Dow for the moment.
Fundies are going to find that there really is no safe hiding spot for their malinvestment habits, certainly not within most equity funds parameters.
Signs of fear abound with confirmed rotation, and I can hardly wait for the scramble when the light bulb goes off that there is no safe index, on a virtual global scale.
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:50 PM
just don't mention the blue line, OK?
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:52 PM
Ms. DoDat was a reg'lar on the George Washington show when I was cutting my investment teeth. Now that I'm about to have them extracted by the 3 ton Gorilla dentist masquerading as a bull market, I find it fitting that she's such a mealy mouth bear.
Although, she correctly characterizes the market's malaise...I sense nobody will have a good Christmas - far from the euphoria classically seen at the start of a bull market. Wall of Worry???? show me the VIX.
show me the A/D
Show me the increasing volume.
Show me the MONEY?
Sadly, it's there...Will it go to the stock market? If it can.
I'm betting it goes somewhere else.
Have a good weekend, y'all. Do what Ms. DoDat says (that's why they call her Ms. DoDat) and take your Prozac.
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:53 PM
Sliced and diced myself into a decent position in OMNI. Was unable to get STSI but will try again on Monday.
Did not like what I saw today in the PM's, looked like a dead cat bounce to me, so I unloaded everything mid-day.
Many thanks to the members of this board that have, by virtue of their superb stock picks, made this a very profitable year for me!!
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:53 PM
another post from Mannfm11 from Prubear:
"I was in this market in 1998. It was in a bull trend and the whole world was pretty ugly. During the time from November 1997 to July 1998, the Dow ran from the low 7000's to 9300. The S&P came off a bottom in January 1998 at around 930 and went to 1190 by July 21. That was a 260 point move. We have barely made 260 points in the last 17 months off a highly Dover Sole level and we have the 4 year cycle working in the bulls favor, plus more pork than one can stand.
During that same 6 month period I mentioned, the Nasdaq went from around 1400 to 2050. What have we gotten in the last 6 months? I am looking at the charts and the data and we can't even get widespread participation in this market. The Nasdaq was at a bottom around 1600 in July and we have made about 400 points from extreme to extreme. You must remember the NASDAQ is coming out of a period where it lost close to 80% of its value and is going to need a 400% move to get even. It is still in lala land in valuation and people are not taking into account the extreme cost to capital investment that is about to kick in on the S&P 500. Most likely there is a hole in the pension system that is going to take 100% of the earnings of these companies for a year to fill. They haven't started paying yet. They got somewhat of a reprive this year with this rally, but their pension funds have earned zero the last 2 years when you take the 1140 that the index started 2002 at.
The Dow hit 9250 in June. It has gone up 800 points from that point. The S&P hit 1020 in June. It has gone up 55 points since then. The market is priced to yield about 6% right now and risk says that is a big loser. I must admit that fools rush into danger.
The high targets for the Dow and S&P are 10,677 and 1176. The Nasdaq waved down to the bottom so nicely that it no doubt did a 5th wave to last years low. My guess for it is the post 9/11 top. It appears to have hit a snag and I have my suspicion the economy isn't generating the cash necessary to lift this market in whole.
I can assure you one thing. This bubble was created under a Democratic administration, but if Bush is re-elected, this emerging bubble spells the end of the Republican party in the United States. The financial consequences for the failure of the masses to recognize the risk involved in playing the stock market and buying into something called random walk,is going to mean the wiping out of capital as we know it today. These NASDAQ stocks are black holes and many of the big Dow stocks are nothing but big banks financing this mess. JPM, C, GE, GM, AXP and a few others are nothing but this.
In closing, I will say a little about random walk theory. I have never directly read this theory, but I have seen enough on the sideline to recognize a fraud when I see one. The theory is that if you stay in stocks, you are going to make a high percentage over time. Never pay any attention to timing, just keep buying. The problem with this idea is up to the time it was released, it hadn't been practiced by any significant number of players. Thus the primary players in the market knew to recognize risk. They knew what stocks were and that stocks were supposed to pay a return to the holder. It wasn't a security to buy just because it was going to go up in price. The long run growth in the economy would take care of price over time, as long as the nation was able to inflate their money supply and not create a crisis. But, the players recognized that stocks had to provide a return that made the risk acceptable. Random walk pays no attention to risk and just walks right into it. Had people practiced this theory in the period the guy studied, instead of large return, most would have ended up broke. The theory in practice today is like giving a junk bond risk a AAA rate. There is nothing wrong with giving a junk bond risk a AAA rate if you get your money back, but you are going to get 6%. AA 20 year bonds are paying 6%, yet stocks of a group that comes nowhere close to averaging AA are priced to yield 6%. People don't understand that stocks as securities are one grade above junk on a secure company and several grades below junk on risky companies and the return achievable out of them needs to be reflected in the price. The stock market provided returns in the past because it recognized risk and not because it ignored risk. The returns in the market today are based on the ignorance of risk and little else. Pricing stocks below the risk of AA bonds is just insane.
In closing, in defense of Bearski after my attack to start, insanity knows no limits. I don't get the sense the public is buying this top here and that is definitely bad news for the bears in this market. I wouldn't be all in here, but I wouldn't be out either. To give in and join the inmates in the asylum isn't a good idea either. The tick tells me the market could get legs and go a few hundred points next week. Don't forget January is quite often top time and time has shown us 10,000 is just a number on the charts. We have been on both sides of it so many time now that it really don't mean what it meant when we went through it in 1999. "
Scary last paragraph for bears... parabolic blow off on Dow and associates.... unless you've got the patience to sit thru it before shorting
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:53 PM
Layoff Report week of Dec 11th ( Merry Christmas your fired)
GE Aircraft Engines expects to cut up to 350 salaried jobs worldwide
The closing of State Farm Insurance Co.'s 53-year-old operations center will eliminate 539 local jobs
3M Co. will cut an additional 125 jobs, citing weak U.S. demand
About 70 Gateway workers in North Sioux City learned Wednesday that their jobs are being eliminated
Abitibi-Consolidated Inc. is shutting down its Lufkin paper mill indefinitely after 63 years of operation, leaving 580 employees out of work
Baker Furniture Co., which has operated a factory in Holland for 70 years, will close the plant next year, eliminating 166 jobs
Auto parts supplier Dana Corp. said it will lay off about 200 workers at its plant in Fort Wayne
Unilever PLC will cut 175 jobs at its Unilever Home and Personal Care U.S.A
see it all here
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:59 PM
The Weak End Anals will be published Saturday AM. No Friday nite quickie tonight.
Also Doc will be on Marketviews.tv with Ike Iossif this weekend. Subscribers know what I'll probably say. For the rest of you, this is your chance. Check Ike's site for details.
If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:59 PM
analysis of GM? from Mannfm11 again from Prubear:
"Buy what? A brick so you can sink faster? GM is bankrupt, but people are buying it like it is somehow going to make a turnaround on the top of the economy. Is the fight over alien drivers licenses because GM needs them as customers? The S&P 500 has a market cap in excess of the GDP and the only times that has happened is now (1998-present) and back in the late 1920's. And, in the 1920's, the economy was a real economy, not a bunch of government programs that count little toward production and a lot toward consumption. The only thing made in America is paper to keep up with government red tape and a health care system that the Queen of England couldn't afford to use. The 1920's at least was an economy where America had an output. Take out the agriclutural side of the economy today and there isn't a lot left. Education and medicine are the business's of America today. Education to do not much of anything because the industries that have to put out the money for the education cannot operate here any more and healthcare to keep dead people alive, which has also bankrupted the private sector.
Since trading money, education and health care are the economy of the United States,what is going to happen to these industries once the rest of the industries and the people run out of money? Are we going to export a few drugs to OPEC to get the lions share of the worlds oil? Are we going to export aspirin to China for all the goods we are consuming from there? I sense America is building a lot of palaces in which the Chinese are going to move over here and live in. People are going to have nice places to live and nothing to put in them. Their kids are going to have nice educations and no jobs. We are going to save all our lives to give it to the banks that are in the background running the health care system. Remember, an insurance company is nothing more than a managed pool of money for its clients. People don't like insurers refusing to pay for everything the bankers, politicians and drug companies want them to pay, then they don't like the cost of all of this. A 2 week stay in the hospital is more tragic than geting sued, even if you recover. 2 hours with a beautiful call girl is cheaper than 10 minutes with a doctor and a sly guy can get the equivalent every day for free.
Americans have become security conscious. The government has stripped us of our ability to act on our own and take responsibility for what the world around us costs. But, people are so insecure that they make mistakes like putting their money into funds to buy this market. They cannot get by without buying the fronts that make them feel like they are someone. To be at a dinner party and say you aren't in this market is paramount to admitting you are stupid. This was a bubble in 2000 and it is still a bubble. S&P is making this market appear it is going to earn $50 a share this year, matching 2000. What they don't say is companies are putting up very little to fund their pension short falls this year due to higher average prices at the end of the last bubble. The law there is strange in that it didn't allow them to assume income based on the 1999 and 2000 peaks, but it is now allowing them to assume income based on S&P 1200 at the start of this year instead of 895. This was the first year where we added an S&P beginning year number that was below the one that dropped off, 1998. The S&P for year beginning 1999 was 1248, so we are likely going to add another and 2000 was 1425. The 2000-2002 swing in asset values went from almost $250 billion overfunded to $220 underfunded in round numbers. Companies were using this pool on the way up as a source of income and now they are not currently recognizing the losses that will be a source of losses. The worm is either going to turn in this game or we are about to see a bubble of more than epic proportions. We already have one of epic proportions.
Posted 12 December 2003 - 06:59 PM
Goldmember: excellent Dow chart earlier in the thread. Thanks for the view.
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