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#31 PileDriver

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Posted 27 December 2002 - 09:40 PM

indeed the festering rot continues

In Penn Station waiting for a train and getting an eyefull of very optimistic business rags on the mag rack. Despite a severe 2 year spanking hope springs eternal for 2003

"Hot Stocks for 2003"
"How to position yourself for the economic recovery"

Getting a little ahead of ourselves here, aren't we?!

2003 is going to suck major wind, no doubt about it.

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Posted 27 December 2002 - 09:52 PM

Adding to Pitbull's comments re China/gold:

Mogambo Guru, http://www.dailyreckoning.com.

"- Speaking of gold, I guess you heard that the Chinese citizens are now allowed to own gold again. But the one question I was hoping would be answered by somebody is, "Why now?" I mean, why did the Chinese government suddenly decide that now, in December 2002, after all this time since 1949, that they would make it suddenly legal for the peasants to own gold?

And the answer is, I betcha, to provide for a future gold standard for their currency. This is because you want a weak currency when you are making a living exporting, so that your products will be inexpensive. But you want a strong currency when you are consuming domestically, so that you can get raw materials and foreign goods cheaply.

So, in a world gone mad with fiat currencies, what can China do to have a strong currency? Well, nothing can make for a stronger currency than gold, speaking from an historical perspective. The lesson is that countries that had gold standards had strong currencies. And what better way for China to acquire large amounts of gold that to have the citizens, almost a third of the world's population, do it for you?

And how big can this new market for gold be? Well, with at least 1.2 billion Chinese people, if only one lousy percent of the people in the country, one out of a hundred, buys a lousy ounce per year, then that is 12 million ounces per year. Which is about quarter of the current world annual production of gold."

#33 martialcomp

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Posted 27 December 2002 - 10:26 PM

I think we should make the Eavis article required reading. After seeing that Doc liked it, I decided to visit The Street for the first time in months.

Straight to the point and not overly wordy.

On todays Mark comments...good info on CSCO.

I have been harping on those goofballs for quite some time. Beat by a penny? Market cap goes up billions of dollars? Amazing...I get frustrated every time they announce earnings. They should be paying a 3% dividend IMHO.

On yesterdays info about SD county. We have at least 200 biotech companies here in San Diego County. Between the medical device companies and the biotechs, the average wage is $65,000 or more.

No way this will continue.

Who is buying these stocks?

I am starting to become concerned that we are actually headed in to a secular bear market and significant reduction in consumption that will last years. I am concerned that we are headed in to a depression, not just a small recession lasting months. I am not sure where the catalyst will come from to lift us out of a depression. I am not sure anything short of World War III could do it.

We continue to lose production jobs every month.

We continue to ship jobs over seas through STUPID trade agreements like NAFTA and GATT.

We continue to have OPEN borders.

We continue to co-dependently pay for everyone and everything in need throughout the world even though we are up to our ears in debt.

Economists, Politicians, Central Bankers and Market anal cysts continue to LIE to us to keep us spending money we do not have.

Bush will lower taxes and each state will RAISE taxes the same amount, so I do not see how the markets can gain from that. Ditto on consumption.

On Japan. Those people know how to SAVE MONEY over there. They at least have pent up demand to fuel a recovery if the government could find a way to get the people to spend.

#34 Guest_AssMaster_*

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Posted 27 December 2002 - 10:40 PM

Pit, AB: excellent comments. Now you're thinking like Soros. :lol:

Maybe we should call the Greenspan Put for gold the "Bernanke Put"?

Many times in history have the great powers used financial warfare instead of the military. The game-plan is to crush OPEC - if everything goes well in Iraq. Russia/US/Canada/UK/Europe will be the new anti-OPEC. High gold and relatively low oil prices will crush them.

It's reassuring to see that others see that we now have the Greesnspan put under gold shares now - or as I like to call it, the Bernanke covered call. Bernanke Put is easier.

While the Chinese will buy physical gold, US citizens will use mining shares as a proxy. This could arguably lead to the kind of mania you saw in Netease for like 1000% gains in a year.

Anyway, I really like this board here. I have learned more in a month here than I did in two years of reading other boards. Thanks Doc and everyone!

And I love my cool avatar! :rolleyes:

P.S. I put that article in a topic on LOB here:

See the article

#35 DogBoy

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Posted 27 December 2002 - 11:24 PM

"Let them stew in their own juices "

Yeah, plutonium, a juice that will level a huge city.

This is some really serious shit.

It makes what is going on in Iraw PALE in comparison.

"US IS acting too freaked out on a non-issue"

If youe takin about NK this IS NOT a non-issue. This is a real country with real weapons and a huge army within 60 miles of 37.000 American boyz.

This IS HUGE.

And it is just like Wall Street to bruch it off like nothing.

The things like this that are bruched off like NOTHING are the THINGS that eventuall kick YO ass.

"Gold, it seems, is still a barbarous relic and the current rally in the yellow metal is little more than temporary peculiarity."

People like this are really LOST SOULS !!! Or they are charlatans trying to lead sheepple on the wrong direction. There is really no othe explanations for this kind of thing.

paper money is just a promise. I like the folks from Missouri (the SHOW ME state) want the REAL THING ---- GOLD.

As for the worst being priced in for Japan -- I say HUMBUG !!!!

The worrst will be priced in for Japan when japanese manufacturers give up on the US consumer and start making war materials to re-militarize JAPAN. Japan will (AGAIN) be a huge military power again and it will happen right after te US consumer craps out and is unable to buy anymore VCR's or TV's.

The N225 will be at like 3000 (or less).

We are maybe a couple of years away from this.

There is another dramatic fall awaiting Japanese markets and how fittin that furriners will be the victims this time as Japanese are too savvy to put any money ito their little casino.

Anybody putting money into the JAP stocks today is in my opinion a total idiot. There are probably at least 2 more years away form the final capitualation.

But then the same folks proabably think Gold will never go over $400 again. What an AWAKENING for these folks is ahead.

#36 PileDriver

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Posted 27 December 2002 - 11:36 PM

1) Forget the bounce - AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN. If it does it will be so lame and short lived it won't be worth fussing over.

2) PMs look perfect. Unless you are paranoid there is absolutely not one negative on these gems. PMs are not looking back and will march steadily higher.

3) Hold gold, stay sold, and whatever you do DO NOT turn on and listen to that Crapvision! You'll regret it later.

There's absolutely NO NEED to listen to that SHIT, just listen to the charts and yourself!

TUNE EVERYTHING OUT - its the only way to profit on these MEGA trends w/o getting bamboozled by noise and jackass "advice" from yesteryear's assholes.

#37 wrecked him

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Posted 27 December 2002 - 11:51 PM

The trin today closed at 3.41

Trin rules:

Closing trin greater than 2 for 2 days in a row: buy the next day
Closing trin greater than 3: buy the next day
Intraday trin greater than 4: buy immediately except in first 10 minutes of trading

So, it is not unreasonable to expect a small bounce here to get thing back to their moving averages (lots of bearish 20/50 day moving average crossovers occuring now including TNX, SPX). I closed out a couple of shorts today but kept my long term puts. Will go and reload a little higher.
A generation which ignores history has no past -- and no future

#38 wrecked him

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Posted 27 December 2002 - 11:53 PM

PS. I am still so short its scary
A generation which ignores history has no past -- and no future

#39 brian4

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Posted 27 December 2002 - 11:57 PM

Hi guys and gals been busy with friends and family over the holidays so missed a couple days. GOLD is going much, much higher this is the new BUBBLE get used to it-GOLD like they say is MONEY-The total market cap of all big miners is less than that turd CSCO-so buy, hold and enjoy! Now today I covered my SPX shorts (probably a day or two early) but WOW what a win! BE CAREFUL maybe another 20 -SPX points looks like a triple spread bottom on the horizon. P/C ratio closed at .96-17,236 calls on SPX versus 51,696 puts-4486 calls on QQQ versus 24,161 puts-she is Dover Sole and everyone is on the short side-so a manic two week plus bounce coming then 3rd wave down-if you have profits-PROTECT THEM-and go long Monday-I started today. Trade Safe!

#40 wrecked him

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Posted 27 December 2002 - 11:58 PM

PPS No you don't understand. I mean really, really short!!!!
A generation which ignores history has no past -- and no future

#41 PileDriver

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Posted 28 December 2002 - 12:01 AM

just close your eyes and don't look if we get the so called "bounce". It'll be over in the blink of an eye. :lol:

#42 GTNWORSE

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Posted 28 December 2002 - 12:14 AM

Hey Guys,
Hope everyone had a nice holiday.
Brian, did I just read you right, are you going long on Monday?!

#43 brian4

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Posted 28 December 2002 - 12:30 AM

GTN-I'm already long-I was boxed -long from 895 and 900 -short and laddered down from 900 to 875-the calls are January the puts were March-now I'll build my ladder long from where we end up (I think 850-860) to 895 where I am now-I don't expect much of an upside, maybe 2-3 weeks to work off the Dover Sole and then down HARD! This market as Doc said is done but rivers never run straight south-the fact everyone is short guarantees a bounce for those who don't want tp play the bounce short as it rises and above all stay LONG GOLD! Trade Safe!

#44 brian4

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Posted 28 December 2002 - 12:33 AM

PILES-I don't disagree with the "blink of an eye" thats all two weeks is a blink of an eye!

#45 PileDriver

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Posted 28 December 2002 - 12:39 AM

but it could be a long time if you're highly leveraged. Depends on who you are and what you trade :grin:

GTN, weren't you going to buy BEARX. What are you waiting for? It's up 9% since the "low-risk" shorting zone (Dec 2). ($.46/sh distribution today)

He who waits for perfect entry point will keep waiting.

If you're planning to buy BEARX screw the pop potential. Not worth agonizing over a pimple of a rally in the big scheme of things. This pup is extremely sick. It's festering within...tick, tock, tick, tock.

Despite potential for a very short term pimple, HUGE DOWNSIDE POTENTIAL LOOMS LARGE - its written all over the wall!

This beast of burden is going down.





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