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#166 GregFokker

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Posted 29 December 2002 - 10:58 PM

Exactly my concern. The put to call ratio spikes up too damn fast these past few months, and while sentiment is generally complacent, the shorts are no longer a mere fringe in the market. There are many waiting to jump in for the ride down, many bearish articles in the mainstream press. It might be good for gold bulls, but the negative coverage on stocks is just enough to make shorting poopular, but not enough to get John Q. to actually bail out. I'd love to be corrected on this, but I fear we'll see endless rangebound trading instead of a strong plunge.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#167 sweefraapp

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Posted 29 December 2002 - 11:08 PM

futures

#168 PileDriver

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Posted 29 December 2002 - 11:14 PM

don't forget that the equity p/c ratio was a persistent ~0.4 for two or three days prior to Friday. The 10 and 21 day MAs of PCR are still very low. Looking at PCR on a daily unsmoothed basis is unreliable at best b/c you're looking at noise.

The market internals are festering and rotting on a daily basis and have been since Dec 2. Take a look at them. As each day passes internals are getting worse, not better.

Since Dec 2 for every Nasty 100 stock exhibiting a positive technical divergence, 3 are on negative technical divegences and in confirmed negative trends.

Jams work for very brief time periods only (minutes), they'll evaporate within minutes if they happen. Al is limp.

The upside is miniscule compared to the downside.

GF, I was eyeballing the magazine stand in Penn Station Friday - I was absolutely amazed at all the bullish/optimistic cover pages on all rags.

"Hot Stock for 2003" ?!?!?
"How to prepare yourself for the great Economic Recovery" ?!?

Tons more but I can't recall exact titles. It was sickening.

Without nit-picking this thing to death, for all intents and purposes, this thing is going straight down the crapper.

#169 GregFokker

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Posted 29 December 2002 - 11:25 PM

Sounds good, Piles. I like it.

While on this train of thought, though, the whole index option vs. equity option distinction. I've been watching DoubleFlush's most excellent charts for months now, and I see the correlation. Low equity p/c=bearish, high index p/c =bearish. The theory is that sheeple play equity options while pros play index options. Thing is, I don't believe that to be the case. Index options are the easiest to trade, the most liquid (well, QQQ and maybe OEX)... do the sheeple really stick to individual stock options?

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#170 PileDriver

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Posted 29 December 2002 - 11:38 PM

Index options are a tough one b/c everyone could be playing those for varied reasons.

Equity is the one I follow primarily and I only act on the major extremes:

http://www.vtoreport...putcall-s&p.htm

Note the red-line is no where near the level required to produce a sizeable sustained rally of any consequence.

From this point forward (Dec 2) I treat rallies as "exceptions" to the trend and manage them as such, in other words I don't become obsessed with them, especially the little punk ones unless these indicators really start raising flags and other indicators do too that a big one is coming. This is not the case now from what I can see.

Of course, very short term option traders probably should be concerned by Fridays #s. But most others probably shouldn't. I know I'm not.

#171 PileDriver

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Posted 29 December 2002 - 11:42 PM

Holy cow, look a the Nasty COT commercials going tits short:

http://www.vtoreport...ntiment/cot.htm

Sentiment is still outrageously sky-high:

http://www.vtoreport...t/sentiment.htm

True to form, odd-lotters are back to "buying the dips" (note action since Dec 9)

http://www.wallstree...statistics9.gif

When will they ever learn? Strap on the feed bag.

#172 DrStool

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Posted 29 December 2002 - 11:45 PM

There's too much market maker arbitrage and hedging revolving around premium differentials between index options and equity options going on to know why these things work. If they work, they work.

I'm with Piles on the outlook. What was extreme yesterday is not extreme today in a bear market like this one. Wait. There's never been one like this one.

The 29 day put call is nowhere near we'd expect it to be at a 10-13 week cycle low. Looks to me like the market will get a good deal weaker before that bounce everyone is looking for. I don't care what Al does. The Gang ain't playin' ball. They're plowing it right back into short Treasuries.

Nickme having a gap and go to the downside in a short session. I smell blood in the water.

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#173 longOnUranus

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Posted 29 December 2002 - 11:52 PM

The consensus is that the rally off the October low was "front running" Santa Claus. Could the drop we are seeing now be front running 1Q "bad news"?. There are really no "suprises" out there: war, poor profits, USD weakness, gold, Venezuela oil...an argument could be made it's all priced in. I also think there will be a big RALLY if military victory looks quick. Korea turmoil is a sucker's bet.

In short, I vote for the slow, grinding, range bound decline GF mentioned. The TenSigma is still out there, lurking. When and what it is is still a guessing game, IMHO.

#174 PileDriver

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Posted 29 December 2002 - 11:53 PM

Regarding what Doc said about where Al's new "free money" is NOW going and the dire consequence (its also going into commodities and gold :lol: ):

From StockMarketTimer.com: Two important technical developments occurred last week. One was the US Dollar's breakdown below it's July low. The other was the upside breakout in the bond market that occurred last Friday. The Long Bond surged above it's downtrend-line at the end of last week and odds now favor the bond price moving above this year's high (113'25) at some point during the next 6 months. Thus, we have revised our Longer Term Forecast. The bond market may be responding to recent comments by Fed Chairman Greenspan and Fed Governor Bernanke that the Fed could and would target long term interest rates by becoming buyers of bonds. If the Fed decides to force long term interest rates below normal market values, then the Fed could eventually become the only buyer of bonds. Everyone else would become sellers because the real returns on US bonds would become prohibitively low. One effect of this type of Fed action would be the collapse of the Dollar, as foreign investors flee the US bond market. And a collapse of the US Dollar would have a decidedly negative effect on the US equity markets.

We've said many times before that government manipulation of free capital markets never acheives the desired results. As Ernest Hemingway once said, "The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency, the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity, both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists."

For the intermediate term, our Market Trend Indicator continues to trend lower. Both the NYSE and Nasdaq McClellan Summation Indices have rolled over, confirming that declining issues are outpacing advancers.


"Equities are Dead" - Let us Stoolies say this now and act accordingly before its too late b/c years from now when the mainstream media says it, and mark my word they will, it'll be the buying opportunity of a lifetime and the shorting game will be over. Till then short the hell out of this load while the gittins good - don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

#175 Hiding Bear

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Posted 30 December 2002 - 12:16 AM

Pile - thanks for the StockMarketTimer.com, which plainly shows the unintended effects of FEED intervention. I wonder if the FEED will realize the error of trying to peg more than one market at once before the dollar goes into some type of crash mode.

I am continuing to look for the POG to move steadily higher in 2003, with maybe a short-term correction due to some type of temporary military "victory"
in the ME or when DOC says its overbought .

#176 brian4

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Posted 30 December 2002 - 12:20 AM

You know guys-listen to yourselves-I'm a BEAR with a capital B-but you are all foaming at the mouth-Martial touched on it-all this CRAP is now Priced in-I'm looking for a friggin 2 week bounce thats all-don
't get caught leaning the wrong way-Al is dying but he ain't DEAD! Trade safe!

#177 Auntie Septic

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Posted 30 December 2002 - 12:31 AM

I ran into Joe Sixpack working at Kroger today. Poor guy was
telling me that his (and other checkers) were getting hours
slashed to 26 hrs./wk. This guy's got a mortgage, car payment,
and three kids to support.

Well, if the cash starts just trickling in, I'll bet the kids get fed
and the mortgage gets paid. I ain't too sure about that car loan
and other "luxury" items like auto insurance, utilities, ...

2003 is shaping up to be a real hurt me for J6.

Oh, and crude oil futures just hit a 30 yr high. Great. Just
what J6 needs -- higher core expenses.
Removed.

#178

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Posted 30 December 2002 - 01:15 AM

I just saw this article about Japanese society on the San Jose Mercury News website. Very interesting in regards to what is happening to their population physclogically. Commiting suicide at a rate greater than 30,000 per year. grown men who can't leave their apartments. Some people are so incapable of interaction with others that they are physically exhausted by conversation.

Mercury News article

#179 Guest_BEARDRECH_*

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Posted 31 December 2002 - 12:25 AM

FOR THE LAST TIME I IMPLORE:
DOK,BRIANN 4,PILEDRIVER FOKKER,MACHINEHEAD ET AL
would one you ,skilled in math,which i am not, please look at Professor didier Sornette prize wnning article on catastrophism and tell of its anything worthwhile?
My take on it is metaphorical;i wont repeat my previous rsanting posts on it,but will leave you with one interpretive snippet:
He seems to be saying that the definitive signals prior to the occurence of a catastrophe,whether it be an earthquake or a market crash occurs years before , and that the closer one gets to its predicted occurence the harder it gets to see the signals(some of doks remarks remind me of this)--iI analogise it to a bridge,built safely enough,meaning the vectored and opposed forces-read bear vs bull-- engineered into the structure are equal and become the resultant:a safe to walk over bridge--but after awhile,a built in initially indiscernible flaw
begins to spread,sending signals that are recognizable and if recognized in time would if acted upon,prevent the very catastrophe about to happen---but if the signaled decay is permitted to go on uninvestigated,say for example, the concrete gallery in a kansas city hotel,it,the stage before the event is so rife with the migrating spreading faults that it results in propagating a homogeneous NOISE--
Thw absence of clearly identifiable signals near the prdicted events occurence,like an edgar allen poe short story,The purloined letter, for example,is THE SIGNAL....
sOMETHING LIKE THE straight line on the cardiac rooms emergency oscilloscope indicating a patients termination
I have written to sornette but hes either on vacation or too busy to respond to a punk like me--who knows but at least one of you might put the theory to a test or use it to augment your tech analysis
Beardrech-- ;) :P :blink: :huh:





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