So what was the deal with CFC today? Check out the intraday and view it in relation to the 10-Year Treasury, and tell me what's up with that? Anyone believe CFC is going to make more money next year than it did this year? Can we really have lower mortgage rates?
The Lenders and the Builders refuse to crack.
The market is telling us that Al Green has something up his sleeve.
Maybe Roger Arnold is right and the 10-year will be pushed down to 2.5% yield in 2004, as the Fed will be buying any and all paper related to keeping the housing bubble afloat.
Or maybe CFC and LEN are getting ready to expand to China, Iraq, and India as "payback" for all the tariffs on hard goods.
If the Rest of the World slaps tariffs on our manufacturing stuff, then why not export the Credit Bubble to those same countries?
That is the key...real estate... People pay mostly interest off first so banks are rolling in it and the money created and pumped into the economy in general is massive... rates, like Japan, should crash at some point as they search for volume...but then that is all she wrote...Then debt deflation will gain speed and will not be able to be stopped...
Looking at the action the peak house buying season starts in March...Just like this rally did weird...But if they plan to crater rates to 3.75-4% by March they would also have to keep the psychology pumped the entire time...
I figuer if average rates can be strong armed down to 3.75%-4.5% that should ignite another Refi real estate supernova...as long of course the psychology can be maintained and there is enough volume...
For 11.5 years in a row volume and price have risen yoy...
When real estate goes it's over...Rates must drop forever...they can't stop and they can't go up...
Don't ask where or how I got the numbers...it sucked...
2003 was running at 20 -21 Billion dollars a month average new debt creation...and average rates were 5.22%
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...
What Doug Noland documents here about the $ could be explosive for gold
This afternoon from Bloomberg: “There was speculation yesterday that Warren Buffett and George Soros are building ‘short’ positions against the dollar, as the British pound remained near a five-year high against the U.S. currency, the Independent reported, citing a hedge fund manager who asked not to be named.”
And Wednesday from Bloomberg, quoting ECB council member Ernst Welteke: “On the impact if the euro climbed to $1.20 or $1.25: ‘At some stage companies that export to the dollar region can of course reach a pain threshold. But only a seventh of German exports go to this region. ‘A lot of companies say that we have hedged ourselves for the time being through swaps. At the moment, the euro’s exchange rate is moving in a neutral range. An abrupt drop in the dollar could of course have consequences for the global economy and therefore for us as well. I don’t think that will happen.’”
These three anecdotes – “all they can do is limit the yen’s gains” BOJ dollar purchases; talk of speculative dollar sales by Soros and Buffett; and Welteke noting that German companies “have hedged” – go right to the heart of what I believe is an unfolding dollar “problem.” First of all, aggressive foreign central bank dollar purchases have clearly lost their forcefulness. Ballooning Asian central bank and U.S. “custody” holdings are today only keeping the dollar’s slide orderly. And with the ECB (as opposed to the BOJ) not aggressively accumulating dollars, euro sellers are finding it increasingly difficult to find buyers. This is precisely the type of environment that captivates the expansive global speculator community.
Depending on who you hear it from...The Unemployment in Iraq is running at 50%...Saddam set the price of Gasoline at 5 cents a gallon...Now because of the Oil disruptions and war damage Haliburton is importing retail priced oil and gas and dumping it into Iraq at a huge loss...
Saddam was a problem the Iraqis were surviving against the most brutal sanctions imposed in modern times the UN says that the food program which the Iraqis ran was the best in the world...Bremner issued an edict last month cancelling it and saying that it is a free market now, problem solved... All the people who ran the previous system so well were fired... the entire infrastructure was fired by a Bremner edict...100,000+ of civil servants were finished off and can not get jobs due to the fact that they needed to be members of the ba'th party to have jobs...at the beginning of the month they fired 20,000 teachers... the only real economy in Iraq is the black market...The printing press...and whatever the U.S. Government pumps in...
The current situation is beyond grim and it can only be sustained by massive pumping of free money just to keep it grim...
Hyper Even though i disagree with you about the war I must thank youu for service rendered --everyone and i mean everyone is morally obligated to stare at these pictures for a minimum of ten minutes before rendering an opinion about it--this is a moral minimum--without doing this obligatory act one enters into the class of amoral swine---do it! pay the price! bdrech
Anyone wonder why U.S. troops keep getting killed in Baghdad?
Lack of water? No.
Lack of food? No.
The reason the Iraqi population is in an uproar is because they are being left out.
Left out of The Great Global Speculative Stock Market Frenzy.
From today's Los Angeles Times:
IDLED TRADING IN BAGHDAD FRUSTRATES IRAQI INVESTORS
U.S. officials plan a modernized, stronger stock exchange. Shareholders and brokers wonder what is taking so long. But Iraqi investors are becoming impatient.
"No one can buy, no one can sell", said Hassan Abdul Latif, owner of Al Jazeera Brokerage Co. in Baghdad. "Everything has stopped. Investors are suffering."
Each day, Latif finds himslef soothing the nerves of anxious clients who visit his office to ask when trading will resume. Abdul Kahlil Fadhl, a 62-year old retiree who says his $50,000 nest egg is tied up in Iraqi stocks, is so frustrated he's thinking about organizing a demonstration. "I feel hatred against the government that is causing this stagnation," he said.
For the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority, the first order of business is a new location for the stock exchange. Once the exchange is up and running, it will relieve pent-up pressure for some popular stocks expected to rise, such as shares of State Co. for Carbonated Drinks, which makes Pepsi here, and hotels such as the Babylon and the Palestine, which are doing good business thanks to the reconstruction workers and journalists in town.
No, this story is not a joke.......
wynd Did you ever read Heller's Catch 22? Perhaps one of the five greatest war novels ever written---major portion devoted to what hyper would call ABSOLUTE CAPITOLISM--- bdrech
update on the collapse of the empire created by real estate spruiker ,Henry Kaye...
Henry signed up 100000 sheeple at a cost of $15000 each to attend his seminars,he also had premium seminars that cost up to $55000.
Henry boasted just one month ago that he could turn anyone into a millionaire in just 6 months.
The plan was simple...using deposit bonds,usually secured by the family home,you could by appartments off the plan and then sell them at a profit before construction was complete.
Henry was involved in everything,he was providing finance,he would be involved in developing the appartment blocks,you name it,Henry was clipping the tickets at every stage.
Now for those of you who can remember the movie called "The Sting",when Doyle Lonegan was to place his bet,he started with some small bets to test the system and once he was satisfied,he placed his $500k bet and then he was whacked.
This is what has happened to the sheeple, in this case you could buy a cheap one bedroom studio appartment for say $200k ,wait 3 months and sell for say $250k,$50K profit before the construction is even completed.
Now that you know how the system works,you excitedly tell all your friends and family and then you figure if i can make say $100k on a larger appartment,why not buy 10 appartments?
And once you have bought all these wildly inflated appartments,what happens,yes you have guessed it,the music stops and you dont have a chair.
I would imagine lots of very nervous people all over OZ at the moment,especially seeing Henrys face plastered all over the Week end press.
One newspaper has credited Henry with singlehandedly bursting the investment real estate bubble.
The reserve bank is expected to raise interest rates next week,we will see if they are swayed by the events of the past couple of weeks.
As i have said earlier,one tiny,teeny weeny little 25bps interest rate increase has sent the first wave of real estate experts plummeting to their deaths.
Click Here Now this is a rough headline is it not-"the turkey has landed". To me what is more important is the secrecy surrounding the flight to a country that has deemed to have been liberated-where oh where were the wheelbarrows of rose petals and the cheering throngs. And now as Hyper pointed out the Billions have all been pissed away and until next month there is no more dough-what a freakin mess-trade safe!
We now have a fraud declared in foreign Exchange where over-the-counter derivatives live and prosper. I suspect that the FBI could not recognize a money laundering derivative if it was wrapped in a red package with “illicit transfer of cash” written on it. Or perhaps they don’t want to. I can from a mile away but no one ever calls seeking my assistance.