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#346 scottcardiff

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 12:40 AM

I thought this was interesting.

SPX 1093.78, which is near 1089 fib retracement number, happens to be the 89 month EMA.

This moving average has been touched only 3 times in the past 21 years.

Support in Aug, 1982
Support in September, 2001
Broken to the downside, June, 2002

After that, the next MA of interest is the 55 month near 1172

Hoping for a spike up into 1089-1094 area, accompanied by low TRIN, low P/C and a VXO near 10 or between 14-15 (both areas are fib cluster targets).

The short setup of our lifetimes, IMO would be the following:

SPX at 1090 area on a spike open.
5 Day TRIN near .80 or lower
10 Day TRIN near .90 or lower
10 Day P/C ratio near .75 or lower
Schaeffers URSA ratio near .30 (currently at .26) or higher
VXO near 10

The payoff on this play is SPX 570. The risk, is minimal. Confirmation is below 1060.

My gameplan, as I still see more up, is long above 1060 to 1090. Caution between 1045-1060. Short below 1045 to 570. Short at 1090 to 570, stop at 1095.

Trading above 1090 completely invalidate's Hyper's scenario, IMO, and sets the stage for a rally of unbelievable proportions. But I wouldn't be caught dead long below 1090 if it gets up there. At this point I think buying the dips to 1090 is still the way to go, as I think the VXO and TRIN and PC ratios have further to fall.

I can run fibs off the 3 major weekly SPX tops and get 570 area. I can also run a fib off of the predicted top of 1090 and get 570. And 560 is the 78.6% retrace of the 1991-2000 boner run rally. (770 was 62% retrace of that rally).

Additionally, if 1553 to 769 is A, then .618 * A = 484. 484 + 570 = 1054. Close enough. 1090 - 484 = 606, so I'll cover at 606 instead of 570. LOL

One last crazy item. Run the infamous SPX head/shoulder neckline from MONTHLY CLOSE TO MONTHLY CLOSE. Current location of that neckline? 1093.

This rally has been, so far, a wedge to test multiyear HS neckline resistance.

#347 anoscope

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 12:41 AM

Can you translate that into English please, Doc?

you canna puta no mora <a link entries typed inna da boarda no more a

you have to hit da http button you see above your post window, or img etc button

#348 Guest_smsc_*

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 12:45 AM

It's not that bank failures are bullish, they are an excuse to print money or monetize - therefore inflationary. How do you protect your fiat dollars from the ravages of inflation? Invest yoiur dollars in something...anything - stocks, gold, real estate, whatever. How would someone have done shorting the market in the Weimar Germany hyperinflation? Pretty badly, I would guess. Short bonds or something if you must.

#349 purdymouth

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 12:51 AM

JPMorgan buying more GFI shares

also:

Factory Layoffs Seen Ending, But Future Is Grim

After a bloodletting that cost 2.8 million jobs in just over three years, U.S. factory payrolls are expected to soon start inching higher, economists believe. But many manufacturing jobs may never come back.

Economists agree most of the factory jobs lost during and since the 2001 recession are gone for good and warn that no one should expect a huge rebound in employment even when the layoffs finally come to an end.


#350 purdymouth

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 01:01 AM

Bush bails on steel tariffs

#351 dozer

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 01:05 AM

Tanks Ned. Perhaps I'm too critical but, I seem to look a bit ashen faced to me. . . . Maybe it's the light.


your chin-mole is showing up very well now mouse.

:lol: :lol:

#352 purdymouth

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 01:10 AM

nikkei up 250 shall we make it 500?

#353 Brisbane Bear

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 01:10 AM

you Americans,you snags you..i wouldnt have believed it,although HT sounds like a cuddler..

http://www.smh.com.a...0127310946.html

#354

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 01:11 AM

There are far more voters using working of for manufacturers using foreign steel than voters working for steel producers. When you add in the collateral damage of a tariff war affecting more voters, vote wise it was a no brainer.

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 01:12 AM

your chin-mole is showing up very well now mouse.

:lol: :lol:

Agreed! :lol:

#356 purdymouth

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 01:15 AM

you Americans,you snags you..i wouldnt have believed it,although HT sounds like a cuddler..

http://www.smh.com.a...0127310946.html

Posted Image

#357 Brisbane Bear

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 01:15 AM

Bush bails on steel tariffs...surprise,surprise.

i am gunna assume Bush is a genius and see where that gets me the next 12 months or so...

underestimating Bush is hazardous to ones financial health.

PS Personally I dont like Bush and i live in another country so cant vote if i wanted to...so it aint political..

#358 Tower

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 01:20 AM

wonder if that means we can't add music inline?

[i think so]

Wahoo!!! :P

#359 dozer

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 01:25 AM

Gotta hand it to the Bearman.

Unrelenting, unwavering commitment to the Bear case.

He's never flinched. Not once.

Even Soup thinks he eats nails for breakfast.


Word !

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Posted 01 December 2003 - 01:31 AM

Purdy, with all doo respect, even Rove is just the middleman for other more silent, more powerful handlers.





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