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WNDSRF-PLUNGER-BRIAN4 & ALL:

           

yet we see no sign of systemic instability...

You're kidding, right?

 

If there were no signs of systemic instability, all of the obvious intervention that is occuring with the Dollar, Gold and the S&P would not be necessary.

 

Do you have any idea what the cost is on a daily basis to keep the appearance of the status quo in place?

 

Plunger

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FINALLY! LOWRY'S hold out the promise of relief!

 

From Russell tonight:

I note that Lowry's Selling Pressure Index is now trending higher while their Buying Power Index is now in a down-trend. This is a real change, and I take it seriously.

 

BTW--the rally in stocks has occurred during the "bad monrths" for stocks--Perhaps the good months will see a decline.

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Perhaps the good months will see a decline.

There will not be a slow decline...there will only be either a full blown bull market, or a full blown crash.

 

Al Green has deemed it so.

 

I choose crash.

 

Plunger

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Plunger

 

I thinkyou mis-in-screwed my point--what you said, we all know-namely that the "700 story paper pyramid" is supported with Herculean efforts--I'm talking about a collapse and a depression. It ain't happened-everything's hunky-dory--been to a mall lately in a near a large megalopolis?

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WNDSRF-PLUNGER-BRIAN4 & ALL:

? ? ? ? ? ?

yet we see no sign of systemic instability...

You're kidding, right?

 

If there were no signs of systemic instability, all of the obvious intervention that is occuring with the Dollar, Gold and the S&P would not be necessary.

 

Do have any idea what the cost is on a daily basis to keep the appearance of the status quo in place?

 

Plunger

Central banks have been intervening the past week or so at a $1 trillion annualized rate to keep the US$ only the slightest bit above water.

 

This intervention increases world money supply outside of the US, but due to foreigners leaving the GSEs (and the mortgage bubble cooling off - see Doc's work), the credit bubble and the domestic money supply has stalled.

 

Here is what we got from Poole of the Fed today about this:

 

WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said Friday that the recent decline in the monetary aggregates isn't worrisome now, but he said he is watching it and may become concerned should it persist.

 

"My attitude is to be careful in reacting to money growth changes over a matter of weeks or even months," Poole said, answering questions after delivering remarks at a Cato Institute seminar in Washington.

 

However, Poole acknowledged the money growth decline "does catch my attention."

 

The longer the decline persists the more it will require further study, he said.

 

Poole also cautioned that some of the volatility in the money supply data may be revised away, which makes it important to track the aggregates over a longer period.

 

Great response. First we'll ignore the problem, then if that dosen't work, we will just revise the figures to make them look better. Like they did with the CPI, GDP, employment, etc. figures.

 

Then when all else fails, intervene more. Great plan.

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Check out ADX on the 30 min RUT.

 

Explosive move imminent..follow the long candle outta here.

Thanks for the chart K-Wave.

 

Looking at the chart on IVAN, I've been expecting the pull back to $4 or so.

 

Check out the trend line on the six month and the support/resistance level on the four year. Looked to me like we intersected both today (or pretty damn close).

 

Plunger

 

PS:

 

It also has great support at $2 !!!

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Plunger

 

I thinkyou mis-in-screwed my point--what you said, we all know-namely that the "700 story paper pyramid" is supported with Herculean efforts--I'm talking about a collapse and a depression. It ain't happened-everything's hunky-dory--been to a mall lately in a near a large megalopolis?

I certainly hope we don't see a collapse or a depression...I just want to make money based on price action. If I can make money on stock prices collapsing and everybody remains smiling and happy with no negative consequences, that would be just great.

 

As for going to a mall...I'd rather sh*t razor blades than suffer that fate.

 

Truman

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GTN- See MH's post on this thread-it has been good for Bears lately and the trend has indeed changed, if you can't see it don't play it. Like Plunger and others I love the malaise out there. Someone I think Richard said "we are doomed to prosperity-look at the malls." I see he has already been disagreed with I will add myself to the list who do. To paraphrase Old Ronnie-"are you better off today than you were 5 years ago??" for the vast number of sheep they are in terrible shape- they have squat for equity in there homes and are more in hock than at any time in History-when one of them loses their job they are dogmeat and they join the Millions of unemployed who try to live on the dole until it gives out and they simply disappear off the rolls and are forgotten. The countries deficit is larger and growing more than any time in it's history and we are stuck in a quagmire that burns $'s and lives every minute of every day.I could go on for hours-you know the drill-as to packed malls-remember Nero fiddled well Rome burned-most of us here would say you need a reality check -if you can't see the train coming-then obviously you won't get off the track-Trade Safe!

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Weekend lyrics:

(to the tune of American Pie)

 

A long, long time ago

I can still remember how the market used to make me smile

What I'd do when I had the chance

Is get myself a cash advance

And add another tech stock to the pile.

 

But Alan Greenspan made me shiver

With every speech that he delivered

Bad news on the rate front

Still I'd take one more punt

 

I can't remember if I cried

When I heard about the CPI

I lost my fortune and my pride

The day the NASDAQ died

 

So bye-bye to my piece of the pie

Now I'm gettin' calls for margin

'Cause my cash account's dry

It's just two weeks from a new all-time high

And now we're right back where we were in July

We're right back where we were in July

 

Did you buy stocks you never heard of?

QCOM at 150 or above?

'Cos George Gilder told you so

Now do you believe in Home Depot?

Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio?

And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio?

 

Well, I know that you were leveraged too

So you can't just take a long-term view

Your broker shut you down

No more margin could be found

 

I never worried on the whole way up

Buying dot coms from the back of a pickup truck

But Friday I ran out of luck

It was the day the NAAAASDAQ died

 

I started singin'

Bye-bye to my piece of the pie

Now I'm gettin' calls for margin

'Cause my cash account's dry

It's just two weeks from a new all-time high

And now we're right back where we were in July

Yeah we're right back where we were in July

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LOTSA articles on the Nikkei bubble V.S. our own-Adam Hamilton does a nice job on this one--sorry, I don't have a link cause this comes from Le Metropole-

 

 

After the third major rally, which incidentally topped right around the same amount of time after the bubble tops in both Japan and the US, a long grinding downleg commenced in both countries? respective busts. This is the exceedingly ugly downleg that ended in October 2002 in the States, at a dismal S&P 500 level of 777, almost 50% lower than its bubble top. This major bounce preceding rally 4 happened at week 135 for the Nikkei, week 131 for the S&P 500, and week 133 for the NASDAQ, definitely an eerie parallel!

 

 

 

Then major rally 4 launched. This rally, really a cyclical bull market within a Great Bear since it lasted more than one year in both countries, is the one we are currently experiencing in the United States today. Just as in the US, last decade in Japan it was a totally different type of rally than those that came before it in the Great Bear. It was longer, slower, more powerful, and much more convincing than the first three major rallies. It is this fourth major rally that is of immense interest to American investors and speculators today.

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