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#46

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 08:07 PM

WNDSRF-PLUNGER-BRIAN4 & ALL:
           
yet we see no sign of systemic instability...

You're kidding, right?

If there were no signs of systemic instability, all of the obvious intervention that is occuring with the Dollar, Gold and the S&P would not be necessary.

Do you have any idea what the cost is on a daily basis to keep the appearance of the status quo in place?

Plunger

#47

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 08:12 PM

FINALLY! LOWRY'S hold out the promise of relief!

From Russell tonight:
I note that Lowry's Selling Pressure Index is now trending higher while their Buying Power Index is now in a down-trend. This is a real change, and I take it seriously.

BTW--the rally in stocks has occurred during the "bad monrths" for stocks--Perhaps the good months will see a decline.

#48

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 08:15 PM

Perhaps the good months will see a decline.

There will not be a slow decline...there will only be either a full blown bull market, or a full blown crash.

Al Green has deemed it so.

I choose crash.

Plunger

#49

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 08:16 PM

Plunger

I thinkyou mis-in-screwed my point--what you said, we all know-namely that the "700 story paper pyramid" is supported with Herculean efforts--I'm talking about a collapse and a depression. It ain't happened-everything's hunky-dory--been to a mall lately in a near a large megalopolis?

#50 Hiding Bear

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 08:17 PM

WNDSRF-PLUNGER-BRIAN4 & ALL:
           
yet we see no sign of systemic instability...

You're kidding, right?

If there were no signs of systemic instability, all of the obvious intervention that is occuring with the Dollar, Gold and the S&P would not be necessary.

Do have any idea what the cost is on a daily basis to keep the appearance of the status quo in place?

Plunger

Central banks have been intervening the past week or so at a $1 trillion annualized rate to keep the US$ only the slightest bit above water.

This intervention increases world money supply outside of the US, but due to foreigners leaving the GSEs (and the mortgage bubble cooling off - see Doc's work), the credit bubble and the domestic money supply has stalled.

Here is what we got from Poole of the Fed today about this:

WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said Friday that the recent decline in the monetary aggregates isn't worrisome now, but he said he is watching it and may become concerned should it persist.

"My attitude is to be careful in reacting to money growth changes over a matter of weeks or even months," Poole said, answering questions after delivering remarks at a Cato Institute seminar in Washington.

However, Poole acknowledged the money growth decline "does catch my attention."

The longer the decline persists the more it will require further study, he said.

Poole also cautioned that some of the volatility in the money supply data may be revised away, which makes it important to track the aggregates over a longer period.


Great response. First we'll ignore the problem, then if that dosen't work, we will just revise the figures to make them look better. Like they did with the CPI, GDP, employment, etc. figures.

Then when all else fails, intervene more. Great plan.

#51

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 08:18 PM

Check out ADX on the 30 min RUT.

Explosive move imminent..follow the long candle outta here.

Thanks for the chart K-Wave.

Looking at the chart on IVAN, I've been expecting the pull back to $4 or so.

Check out the trend line on the six month and the support/resistance level on the four year. Looked to me like we intersected both today (or pretty damn close).

Plunger

PS:

It also has great support at $2 !!!

#52

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 08:24 PM

Plunger

I thinkyou mis-in-screwed my point--what you said, we all know-namely that the "700 story paper pyramid" is supported with Herculean efforts--I'm talking about a collapse and a depression. It ain't happened-everything's hunky-dory--been to a mall lately in a near a large megalopolis?

I certainly hope we don't see a collapse or a depression...I just want to make money based on price action. If I can make money on stock prices collapsing and everybody remains smiling and happy with no negative consequences, that would be just great.

As for going to a mall...I'd rather sh*t razor blades than suffer that fate.

Truman

#53 The brown one

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 08:26 PM

Richard 640:

Yep,IMO the pattern for 2003.Everything turned on it's head.

Sell in May and go away-nope.
Volatility increases in the summer on thin trading-nope.
Always be long Nov thro' April--not yet anyway

Market has to fool the majority always!

#54 brian4

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 08:46 PM

GTN- See MH's post on this thread-it has been good for Bears lately and the trend has indeed changed, if you can't see it don't play it. Like Plunger and others I love the malaise out there. Someone I think Richard said "we are doomed to prosperity-look at the malls." I see he has already been disagreed with I will add myself to the list who do. To paraphrase Old Ronnie-"are you better off today than you were 5 years ago??" for the vast number of sheep they are in terrible shape- they have squat for equity in there homes and are more in hock than at any time in History-when one of them loses their job they are dogmeat and they join the Millions of unemployed who try to live on the dole until it gives out and they simply disappear off the rolls and are forgotten. The countries deficit is larger and growing more than any time in it's history and we are stuck in a quagmire that burns $'s and lives every minute of every day.I could go on for hours-you know the drill-as to packed malls-remember Nero fiddled well Rome burned-most of us here would say you need a reality check -if you can't see the train coming-then obviously you won't get off the track-Trade Safe!

#55 crooked_analyst

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 08:58 PM

Thanks Mark...

Funny as hell!

I needed that...been brawling all day with a Broker who's walking his client into a nasty quagmire....he'll be enjoying a Pepto Bismol weekend.....thanks for the smiles!

#56 Jorma

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 09:00 PM

Per Poole's suggestion I am notifing my bank to revise my account balance by plus$1 million dollars. Only to help the aggregtes of course.

Anyone else going to Tahiti?

War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
William Eastlake 'The Bamboo Bed'

Change you can suspend your disbelief in.
Fafblog

 

The Treasury

could burn down

We jammin still

Full Extreme   Ultimate Rejects


#57 Tchaikofsky

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 09:05 PM

Weekend lyrics:
(to the tune of American Pie)

A long, long time ago
I can still remember how the market used to make me smile
What I'd do when I had the chance
Is get myself a cash advance
And add another tech stock to the pile.

But Alan Greenspan made me shiver
With every speech that he delivered
Bad news on the rate front
Still I'd take one more punt

I can't remember if I cried
When I heard about the CPI
I lost my fortune and my pride
The day the NASDAQ died

So bye-bye to my piece of the pie
Now I'm gettin' calls for margin
'Cause my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
We're right back where we were in July

Did you buy stocks you never heard of?
QCOM at 150 or above?
'Cos George Gilder told you so
Now do you believe in Home Depot?
Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio?
And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio?

Well, I know that you were leveraged too
So you can't just take a long-term view
Your broker shut you down
No more margin could be found

I never worried on the whole way up
Buying dot coms from the back of a pickup truck
But Friday I ran out of luck
It was the day the NAAAASDAQ died

I started singin'
Bye-bye to my piece of the pie
Now I'm gettin' calls for margin
'Cause my cash account's dry
It's just two weeks from a new all-time high
And now we're right back where we were in July
Yeah we're right back where we were in July

Edited by Tchaikofsky, 22 November 2003 - 09:45 AM.


#58

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 09:07 PM

"What's come to light is as ugly as could be...and I use the word ugly as the nicest way to describe it."

Harvey Goldschmid
SEC Commissioner

#59 DrStool

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 09:22 PM

Dancing Around

Going Nowhere Fast

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#60

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Posted 21 November 2003 - 09:27 PM

LOTSA articles on the Nikkei bubble V.S. our own-Adam Hamilton does a nice job on this one--sorry, I don't have a link cause this comes from Le Metropole-


After the third major rally, which incidentally topped right around the same amount of time after the bubble tops in both Japan and the US, a long grinding downleg commenced in both countries’ respective busts. This is the exceedingly ugly downleg that ended in October 2002 in the States, at a dismal S&P 500 level of 777, almost 50% lower than its bubble top. This major bounce preceding rally 4 happened at week 135 for the Nikkei, week 131 for the S&P 500, and week 133 for the NASDAQ, definitely an eerie parallel!



Then major rally 4 launched. This rally, really a cyclical bull market within a Great Bear since it lasted more than one year in both countries, is the one we are currently experiencing in the United States today. Just as in the US, last decade in Japan it was a totally different type of rally than those that came before it in the Great Bear. It was longer, slower, more powerful, and much more convincing than the first three major rallies. It is this fourth major rally that is of immense interest to American investors and speculators today.





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