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I Am "The Maestro"


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#376 Brisbane Bear

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 10:42 PM

Conditions are cherry ripe for a major crash....the complaceny is really quite amazing,the non chalant attitude to each and every story just blows my mind,stories of such grave magnitude just dismissed with the wave of a hand so to speak...well one day it will matter,one day it will just start going down and wont stop...it is getting closer i feel.

#377 dozer

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 10:44 PM

seconded, re; hadjin. good on ya H.

yup, it takes time. we started 7 yrs ago, and aren't "finished" yet. probably never will be....it's too much fun :lol:

Best possible way is to grit yer teeth and make the MOVE...and then you're LIVING it; not trying to get it done on weekends.

sphinx, if ya get nothing else done, get the land, with year-round water, and trees. all else can flow from that, if need be.

i've gotten a few PM's in the past month, asking how to get started in this direction....and also a couple asking about costs and tasks involved in getting into mining.

perhaps a thread on LOB recounting experiences and trading advice would be of interest to some? :unsure:


beardrech: i liked your example. that's the kind of explanation i'd like to see too.

some days, i can't keep straight a bull-flag from a bear-flag... :lol: :lol:

#378 Pee Brain

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 10:48 PM

from a friend
Posted Image


did the bear eat all the illegals?
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#379 BAREister

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 10:50 PM

Some of the newly disclosed accounting adjustments involved inaccurate valuations of the company's huge derivative hedging portfolio. Others resulted from inadequate documentation of hedges.

Minds will be blown when the truth comes out about the size and scope of the hedging portfolios at FRE and FNM.

My prediction is this:

1) The notional amount of the HedgeBook will be found to be 10x larger than the entire portfolio of mortgages and mortgage backeds.

2) The potential for error (plus or minus $10 billions), profit or loss, on the HedgeBook will far exceed the possible profit or loss on the mortgage porfolio impacted by rising or falling interest rates.

3) 2/3 of the "executives" at FRE and FNM are currently working full time to try to understand the how this Paper Pyramid was constructed, how it can be unwound, how it can be simplified, or how it can be neutralized.

In short, these people have created a HedgeBook from Hell, one that is way too complex, and has spiraled out of control, and even the top execs don't have a clue as to what is in it, how it would react to "market events", or how to fix it if its broken.

The HedgeBook is a monster.

Its out of control.

It can't be "neutralized".

It can't be "turned off".

The HedgeBook will run its course, probably into a Black Hole, from whence it came:

The "Black Holes Model."

Good luck Dr. Myron and Dr. Scholes.

Someone earlier wanted indicia that we were topping out here and now.

BARE started to put up a post that said, essentially, what this post of Srf sez, but realized that wasn't, necessarily, a here and now, but ultimately scenario. However HRFF was contemplating addressing the overall derivatives situation of which the GSE's are only part. The ramping in this arena the past few years is indicative of mounting desperation, to this observer, especially when combined with 13 rate cuts, massive liquidity injection, the lowering of taxes and the putative 'stimulus' of war/the defense sector.

The lack of comprehension of derivatives doesn't just exist here in the GSE's, it's much more pervasive. How many trillions of 'em do we have now? Over 100? BARE stopped caring at 64 trillion. His poor little brain can't comprehend the scale of that, let alone a doubling thereuv.

Declining and stable interest rates have held the derivatives tower together, mostly, thus FUR.

When either rates rise sharply or there is hard movement in some other major sector, such as stocks or the dollar, then the wheels may come flying off - all of them. All at once.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#380 flockofsheeples

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 11:04 PM

May i propose a change in the financial nomenclature???
Someone said that there is no higher crime than the current one of Murder--namely the physical destruction of 1 or more human beings--

What about the finacial murderers who've killed the dreams and futures of millions of human beings;on a scale so vast that the word Financial Genocide springs to mind---

I'm not joking--without the proper terminology of what has happened there will be no justice--

And i sssuggest to you that if you start using it on an experimental bassis slowly but surely a feeling of nausea will invade your ssoul and never leave---

I admit there is a risk but is gaining the truth worth it--I leave it for you to decide

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: :ph34r: :ph34r:

b-you should email that to spitzer. right on brotha!
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"

#381 brian4

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 11:11 PM

Hadjin- couldn't agree more-it feels like the current folks consider EVERYONE the ENEMY-and I like you am a Conservative-the control of the media is superb-note the earlier posts about the Carlyle Group lusting to bail Lord Black out-note the fact CNN has NOT posted new fair value numbers since Thursday-note the Spoo's are below the 10 day m/a at 1063 and just below the 50 day m/a 1036 and of course note the 200 day m/a @ 961-ignorance is bliss to the Sheeple but to those of us who are not sHEEP the writing is on the wall. On another topic Gruffy late last night you set off to find sex my spies tell me you woke up with the beer machine in your BED-LOL-Trade safe!

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 11:20 PM

Gee! The Barrick news really was bullish...so far...

Gold(CMX) Dec 396.5 395.8 396.5 +0.5
Silver(CMX) Dec 530.0 528.5 530.0 +0.5

ZAHAV L'YAH-RAY'-ACH-!!!!

#383 beardrech

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 11:24 PM

Hadjin, will you adopt me? :huh:

i've applied to a school in hollywood which holds its calsses in an abandoned movie studio fformerly devoted to making some of the finest Tarzan films in Northamerica--

And for only a measly $1500 will teach me to swing from one vine to another and by graduation day i will be able to fly through the jungle air at approximately 12 miles an hour

and for an extra 600 dollars will train me to carry a small ape similar to cheetah on my back while doing the above

and for another 300 dollars will teach me all the nuances of monosyllabic Tarzan talk--enabling me to converse with over two hundred diffferent species of animal life

and for two dollars more will teach me to bang his eighty year old wife in a treehouse

and for eighty cents will give me a hydramatic can opener and teach me how to open cans of delmonte fruit cocktail

and for another didme will instruct me in the arts of cutting out newspaper grocery coupons---

and all this and a diploma made out out of catskin

Somehow despite all of the above technology i dont think i'm going to survive the next five years

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: :P

#384 Hiding Bear

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 11:25 PM

China near to agreeing state bank bail-outs

China is poised to agree a multi-billion dollar plan to recapitalise its insolvent big state banks through injections of government capital, a senior official told the Financial Times.

Mr Lou said Beijing was considering several ways to raise funds, including the PBoC "printing money", the state issuing debt and the PBoC using a portion of China's $400bn in foreign currency reserves.


Printing money? Does that sound bearish for gold? Lance Lewis said so, but I disagree and think the opposite.

Selling US$ reserves? Does Lance think that is bad for gold too?

Financial Times

#385 beardrech

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 11:34 PM


no no...it was...choppers....big black harleys roaring down madison ave....no.....wall st !  THAT'S IT !  Wall Street!

NOW I remember....   :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

Yeah! That was the topic Dozer! Bigl Black Harleys roaring down Wall Street!

to repeat myself
we must end these cycles of violence
Get the Harleys off the streets

beardrech :D

#386 dozer

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 11:38 PM

"On another topic, Gruffy late last night you set off to find sex my spies tell me you woke up with the beer machine in your BED-LOL-"


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


b4, with cnn down, where now? what's the best hassle-free place to see current futures?

current futures....current futures.... :P :P :P

#387 brian4

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 11:45 PM

Dozer-Indexarb.com-but you will have to do your own math with the futures. trade Safe!

#388 anoscope

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Posted 23 November 2003 - 11:57 PM

"On another topic, Gruffy late last night you set off to find sex my spies tell me you woke up with the beer machine in your BED-LOL-"


:lol:  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:


b4, with cnn down, where now?  what's the best hassle-free place to see current futures?

current futures....current futures....   :P  :P  :P

http://money.cnn.com...s/morning_call/

working for me

#389 purdymouth

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Posted 24 November 2003 - 12:07 AM

China says they will not retaliate by dumping treasuries

FWIW

#390 rayok

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Posted 24 November 2003 - 12:18 AM

China says they will not retaliate by dumping treasuries

FWIW

A threat, disguised as reassurance. How devious! :P





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