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Extraordinary Volatility


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#61 dozer

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 07:58 PM

Just had a nice lunch with Goldilocks and his quite attractive better half. They're out in Idaho for his brother's wedding. A fine fellow and undoubtably a bear. What a refreshing change. See Pee Brain, If you would have stopped you too could have had a free lunch. And they said it didn't exist. :lol:


yobob, i thought you were in alaska ???

hell, i just went through idaho a week ago. i missed the free lunch huh? damn... :P

#62 summoner

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 08:03 PM

Hope all stoolies had an awesome week...KACHINGO BABY

Ordered a full set of way in the money Jan SPX PUTZ at 1060 plus

Metal stocks, golds and silvers smokin to the upside

KLAC short screaming lower

Time to review the charts ....TRADE SAFE
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"

Charles Shackelford
NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#63 FeedFool

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 08:03 PM

Just a little thot about all the lies being told at the moment!

What if the bond market isn't lying really and let's assume the CRB isn't lying at all.Seemingly incongruous?Nope!

IMO these are the indicators of STAGFLATION.
And you know what happens to the SM with stagflation-slump!

Rates go up when everyone want to borrow at once and corps want to borrow to make money on the borrowed money--not happnin'.
Corporates are borrowing to survive,hoping to ride this out.Excess capacity is overwhelming, so they're not borrowing to create "wealth",they're borrowing to survive and that is destroying wealth.

Breakout of the CRB is probably more a reflection of dollar weakness and better biz conditions in Asia and China(internally).

Bonds yields and Commodity are going up. Looks like seventies are back in fashion again.

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#64

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 08:10 PM

Oops, in today's Weekend Australian an article headed "Negative Gearing On Notice".

"Negative gearing is under threat, with the Reserve Bank identifying far-reaching changes to the taxation of property investment to fix the housing bubble by dampening investor interest."

Just a shot across the bows at this stage but I bet there's some frantic number crunching going on.... especially after the interest rate rise this month and the strong possibility of another one next month.

#65 Space Modulator

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 08:22 PM

Negative Gearing On Notice

I had to look it up to find out what "negative gearing" meant. :lol:

#66 wndysrf

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 08:36 PM

As much as I like reading Lance Lewis, I think he's consistently wrong.

He shorted more HMY and GFI today, expecting new 52-week lows.

Says the CRB will reverse ASAP, causing a "deflationary panic".

Warning once again of an "epic break" in stocks.

I think we will roll over, but no "epic break" until we get a couple 2+ billion share days in a row to the downside.

He missed the September 2001 rally.

He missed the October 2002 lows.

He missed the March 2003 lows.

He did correctly call a buying opportunity in the gold shares in April. He said the move will be "spectacular" and will outperform anything else on the long side or short side. He was right about that, but why did he change his mind two weeks ago?

Guess will find out soon enough.

Its "hero" or "goat" time for Lance..............
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#67 gruff

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 08:41 PM

Just two comments tonight... let's see 4 or 5 down days in-a-row before we all become wild-eyed bearish. Please.

Friday action is often volatile. Let's see where things are at Monday's close before becoming overly 'bearishly exuberant'.

Success!
gruff

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 08:41 PM

Negative Gearing On Notice

I had to look it up to find out what "negative gearing" meant. :lol:

Sorry Space M, guess you call it something different over there :grin:

#69 Tchaikofsky

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 08:41 PM

Machine Head---Ned:
I caught Jim Glassman on Crap-Vision after the PPI this a.m.

The .8% PPI not a problem says Jim Glassman of J.P. Morgan

I find it highly amusing how, in bull phases, anal cysts create bullish dialogue-they are very creative!--in mkts truth is conditional--so the bull's dialogue is "right".

Jim said the PPI# is a seasonal abberation due to the car model changeovers-[i dunno what that means, either] This is a direct quote: "If you take out food, energy, & autos", the core was .2%" Jim sees very stable prices-not rising ones--and on the CPI-level he sees deflation-and best of all:

"If you take out food, energy, & autos", what's left? :o

Producer Price Indexes -- October 2003

The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor
reported today that the seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index for
Finished Goods advanced 0.8 percent in October. This gain followed a 0.3-
percent rise in September and a 0.4-percent increase in August. Rising
prices for beef and veal, light motor trucks, and passenger cars led the
increase in the finished goods index in October. At the earlier stages of
processing, prices received by the manufacturers of intermediate goods went
up 0.4 percent, after edging down 0.1 percent in the prior month. The rate
of increase in the index for crude materials slowed from 3.4 percent in
September to 2.6 percent in October.
. . .
Before seasonal adjustment, the Producer Price Index for Finished
Goods increased 1.1 percent in October to 145.5 (1982=100). From October
2002 to October 2003, prices for finished goods advanced 3.4 percent. Over
the same period, the index for finished consumer foods rose 8.5 percent,
finished energy goods prices went up 9.2 percent, and the index for
finished goods other than foods and energy climbed 0.5 percent.
Prices for
intermediate goods moved up 3.4 percent, and the crude goods index jumped
22.8 percent.

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 08:43 PM

necessities: food, clothing, shelter, energy, utilities, insurance, taxes (direct and indirect), medical and most real things (commodities) in a major uptrend

broken promises: US dollar, wages, jobs, stocks in a major downtrend

looks like an inflationary depression, less income (or none) for the masses while their fixed costs go up

used SUV's and vacated houses will decline in price but that will not lower the price of most above necessities

Key Reversal today -- Bear market rally over
fewer jobs with lower wages means less 401K money into stocks
scams scaring people out of stocks, fewer sheep left to fleece
laid off people must sell the stocks they have to pay bills
millions avoiding some pain by declaring bankruptcy but still have no income
Ditech home equity game over, easy credit card game over
falling house prices will leave average family with large negative net worth

private sector jobs that produce goods and services going overseas, public sector federal government funded by taxes continues to grow -- the parasite is now bigger than the host

Billions being flushed down Iraq hole generating profits for a very few but hundreds have been killed and thousands have been wounded, besides the personal tragedies this will have a negative psychological effect on economy

aside from Saddam/Osama capture, any other war/terrorist news will be bad

12-month run to election will be unusually bitter and contentious with Jobless Recovery and Stock Market Fraud major themes

bullhorning getting more ridiculous and hysterical, Dow 12,500 calls by June etc. as they attempt to suck in more buyers of toilet paper on the way down

big boys less interested in getting more of their share of the public fleecing, more interested in just getting out with what they have stolen so far, moving it to bonds and gold and overseas accounts, voluntarily retiring early, running and hiding someplace, avoiding perp walks

#71 The brown one

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 08:45 PM

Tanks for that TNX chart ,Feed.

So the slipping of rates in the past 2 days is just to get us to support before we blast off higher again.

This is then Al's worst nightmare.It will be interesting to see the wild animal in action--could get rather volatile with all sorts of hedges/derivatives blowing up!

Bring 'em on!

#72 Howl

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 08:46 PM

This is how I see things. The bears (us) have been in a grinder for far to long. Everyone and their mother is long or if short, covers fast. Why? becuase we have been conditioned over the last nine months to FEAR another rally. Another rally might happen but cycles and Elliott point to a TOP here (todays) or slightly higher next week. Yet bears are not seeing it and bulls see every dip as a ho hum event. We are on the cusp of a big decline. IMHO. Whether that be 12-16% or more I have no idea. I'll tell ya this. I will be short (am already).

I had alot more to say about this but, it escapes me at this time.

EDIT- Todays Key reversal is telling (perhaps).

This is what my Elliott work is saying as well. Those sentiment indicators that measure what people in the USA say are in "The future is so bright you are going to need sunglasses." mode.

However, I have become skeptic. The sentiment indicators that measure what people do, indicate that bears are more active than many assume. The P/C ratio was not nearly as low in the last months as it was in the spring of 2000. The short sell ratio is pretty high.

My guess is that there will not be a Nikkei-style b wave decline. I am looking for an early termination of the 4 year cycle, and then a bear market into 2006.

#73 The brown one

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 08:57 PM

Love those guys that say "if you take out this, that and the next thing,we have no inflation.

It's like the "profit concept" of EBITDA--we made a profit if you
take out all the nasty things we had to shell out for.

Everything is a non-recurring,one-time write down.Won't happen again next quarter cos we got something bigger and nastier to deduct then.

Really is all about confidence--the biggest confidence trick since humanity began!

#74 Mo-Mo Monkey

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 09:01 PM

Guess whose BAAACKKK!!!!

Could't come by to visit the last few days, closing on my new vacation condo in Florida!! Too busy signing papers!!!

MO-MO MONKEY TO THE RESCUE!!!

Wake up despondent bears!!!

BUYING OPPORTUNITY DEAD AHEAD!!!

Check me out!!! Unreal picks today!!!

CLHB, up 45%
BFLY, up 17%
SCON, up 22%

Peeled off my CYD, SSYS. Took a little loss!!!

Arrghhhhh!!!

NO DEAD MONEY!!! MO-MO MONKEY NEEDS TO SEE FORWARD MOTION ASAP!!!

Still WAY UP from a week ago!!! Small caps are SCREAMING!!!

NEW HIGHS FOR THE S & P 600 yesterday!!!

Can't wait until options week!!! ALWAYS good to the bulls!!! UP, up and away!!!!

JUST NOTICED BULLSTOOL.COM!!! HOW COOL!!! I'LL CHECK IT OUT!!!

Hey Doc!!! Now you are getting it!!!

POSITIVE ATTITUDE, MAN!!! JUST LIKE KUDLOW AND CRAMER!!

Think BIG!!! and your account will GROW BIG!!!

MR. GREENSPAN expected to come up with some new cash for the stock market players!!! Wonder where it will come from??

WHO CARES???

FREE MONEY IS FREE MONEY!!!

THAT'S GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE MO-MO MONKEY!!!

ROCK, BABY!!!!

#75 mjkst27

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Posted 14 November 2003 - 09:02 PM

Just two comments tonight... let's see 4 or 5 down days in-a-row before we all become wild-eyed bearish. Please.

Friday action is often volatile. Let's see where things are at Monday's close before becoming overly 'bearishly exuberant'.

Success!
gruff

aren't we 5 out of 6 right now gruff? granted some of those were small down days, but down days none the less





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