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#46 An Ant

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:12 PM

Saw some AMAT trades @ 23.90 go by just before 6:30pm ET :(

WTF happened? Even now it's sitting on 23.60

#47 Captain's Log

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:13 PM

China Wants to Buy 100,000 Australian, Canadian Cows (Update1)

Shite : There is a bull market afterall.

#48 dozer

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:14 PM

b4, thanks for the word on trimtabs, and the fin-news stories about the lack of MF selling today. I'd missed that, since I didn't have time to peruse the news today.

I notice that, as usual with the big propaganda-machine, the attention to the pension deficits waned and has been absent for a while....but if the market does indeed blow off and begin dropping, I think we'll see big-time redemptions.

In fact, now that I think about it, perhaps the bailing on Putnam is simply a convenient excuse for the big pensions to GTHO prior to the drop to 950 ??

#49 BartTheBear

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:18 PM

FowlJ -

According to the years covered in your work (great effort by the way) an SPX gain in the "unfavorable" season has about an 80% chance of being followed by gains the the following "favorable season".

I once did a similar exercise (no where near as detailed as yours) going back to 1980 and came up with a similar result. Gains in the may-oct period are likely to be followed by gains in the nov-apr period.

Of course the market was in a secular bull during most of the period from 1980 so perhaps the data set is questionable to begin with.

#50 anotherone

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:19 PM

The CAMP train in leaving the station:

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"Calista Flockhart's top is not near as significant as Maria's bottom."
--"Zapata" George Blake 8/5/2003

#51 anotherone

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:20 PM

My long-term monthly CAMP indicator says blow-off top in spring/summer 2004:

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"Calista Flockhart's top is not near as significant as Maria's bottom."
--"Zapata" George Blake 8/5/2003

#52 machinehead

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:20 PM

More Bubble II evidence:

Competition was always fierce for a seat in Masa Takayama's Beverly Hills temple of sushi, Ginza Sushi-Ko. His delicacies were so exotic - one soup featured the sperm sacs of blowfish - that diners forgave the $300-a-person minimum. But Mr Takayama has gone really upmarket. He has closed his Beverly Hills site to move to New York, where his new restaurant is expected to be pricier: the chef is targeting an average bill of about $400-a-diner when he opens next year.

The east coast version of Ginza Sushi-Ko is just one example of a new wave of ultra high-end restaurants opening in New York City. Local food experts say they have not seen such a boom in New York restaurants in years - not even during the heady late 1990s.


The Idle Rich Cafe

The hubris -- they admit the dot-commers are gone, but claim that super-rich clientele who are "insulated from the economy" will continue to pay any price to be "seen at the right table." HA HA HA.

I'll take the other side of that bet ... SUCKERS.

p.s. That soup used to be featured at an upscale Chinese restaurant ... it was called "Cream of Sum Yung Man."
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals."
- our jickiss

#53 BAREister

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:20 PM

A run on the funds is not unthinkable, and it would be a direct result, cause and effect, of the credit bubble. It's not just that stocks are overvalued, it's that our genius financial engineers have engineered the biggest bubble in the history of the world. The bigger the bubble, the bigger the fraud, and the bigger the crash.

There's gonna be hell to pay.

There might not be a bailout, or one of sufficient size. Government can't bailout banks, and funds, and GSE's AND pension funds AND huge corporations AND Medicare AND Social Security. It's going to have to pick and choose. And a Hobson's choice it will be.

Buttass™ to the rest of what Docstahhh sez: he's absolutely right.

So is TwoScrews. This thing is stalling out.

This parlous financial architecture, so long in the making, is a vASSt™ tinderbox awaiting a match. The present milieu is faintly redolent of how Hitler felt about "kicking in the door" w re to the invasion of Russia. Only we've now terrorists, not insanely murderous dictators to worry about, who think the same way. And they may be right. The whole house may come crASShing down once the door is kicked in. In fact, it's getting harder, by the pASSing hour, to see how it won't. Which is why Doc is right.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#54 anotherone

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:21 PM

It's a gas:

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  • NG04H160.gif

"Calista Flockhart's top is not near as significant as Maria's bottom."
--"Zapata" George Blake 8/5/2003

#55 anotherone

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:23 PM

Cocoa is in a SWUP. Think I'll bail and buy more gas Moonday.

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  • CC04H160.gif

"Calista Flockhart's top is not near as significant as Maria's bottom."
--"Zapata" George Blake 8/5/2003

#56 dozer

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:24 PM

Likewise the funds are going to find their bankers far less friendly. They will be reluctant to lend to those under the threat of criminal charges, and I think would flat out refuse to lend to any already indicted.


thanks for highlighting that point doc. when....sorry, i forget who....mentioned that Putnam would have big-time credit available, I thought that might not be right. Lending money to a company facing criminal indictment would clearly be negligent, and open a bank to huge lawsuits.

in the past few months, i've responded to several stoolies who predicted that the matrix could keep the plates spinning 'til nov-04, that I just don't think so. and I reiterate that here. it's coming apart at the seams, and despite the acknowledged power of the matrix, I just can't imagine them keeping it up for another FULL YEAR.


anyway, lately i'm not so confident there's even going to BE an election in 2004....

#57 alex

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:26 PM

Dr. Stool wrote:

A run on the funds is not unthinkable, and it would be a direct result, cause and effect, of the credit bubble.


This raises an interesting question about brokerages, generally, Ive' been wondering about. How safe are they?

For example, I've always thought brokerages are safer than commercial banks because they don't use leverage to loan out customer funds (i.e., take in deposits and then lend them to homeowners).

I suppose some "leverage" comes into play when brokerages like Fidelity use credit lines to buy stocks for their mutual funds. Has anyone ever read a MF prospectus carefully to know what the extent of this credit borrowing/purchasing typically is? But even so, wouldnt defaulting the credit lines screw the banks who provide them, and possibly the MF holders --

In other words, how is a typical customer of a brokerage (not a MF holder) potentially harmed if a "run" on assets comes into play?

#58 BAREister

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:26 PM

HRFF is quite worried that Igor may become HYPERactive FURom an excessive sugar infusion from ingestion of Halloween treats. The CARDBOARD BOX may go bananas this weekend as a result.

Yew have been WARNED!!!

...

Yikes! what's THIS??? A MOUSE transmogrification?

Attached Images

  • twoscrews__.jpg

"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#59 BAREister

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:31 PM

In other words, how is a typical customer of a brokerage (not a MF holder) potentially harmed if a "run" on assets comes into play?

Alex

Weiss rates the BORKeRAGES FUR "safety".

Don't ASSk obnoxious questions!!!

If the markets go, they go. It's probably assimpleass that. Don't count on "insurance" either.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#60 dozer

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Posted 31 October 2003 - 08:38 PM

yikes! so -that's- what happened to the mouse.

damn bare, looks like you made him -mean- now....look out!

:lol: :lol:





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