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#346

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Posted 02 November 2003 - 11:44 PM

To comeback to what I wanted to talk about - Australia. I think Aus has a number of factors that will be attractive. (Taking this approach from Micheal Porter's "Competitive Analysis of Nations". For those thinking wtf has Captain's Log been smoking ?

Whilst Aus may not be the main driver of Asian growth, it will certainly benefit from spin offs. There are other reasons other than cheaper labour that a country can compete:-

a) Geographic location. A few hours away from the main markets. It is also next door to lower SE Asia which are big markets in themselves.
B) Anglo legal system wrt biz laws. In theory, not so much backhanders.
c) Political stability.  Watch this space as other countries get wealthier and demand change.
d) Plenty of land for development/agriculture. (Drawback is the law that fobids foreigners owning houses ! That will have to change)
e) Climate. More hospitable than tropics.
f) Leisure opportunities. (How many ski resorts are there in Singapore !).
h) Commodities.
i) In a nuthshell, the nearest thing that Asia has to US / Europe wrt Culture. People moving business may prefer something they already know.

However along the ways I see some bumps in the road. Indonesia IMO - the biggest. This is going to be one mother of a civil war as each regions/ major Island strains for Independence. This will be the Asian Balkans.

Whenever I visit a country, I always judge it by "Would I like to live there" ? "What are opportunities I see there" ? Although, I've never been to Aus,I've friends who travelled there and loved the place. I read a lot of travel and it is on my top 5 list on places to go to next.

Must stop this discussion now as mMy #1, place to travel next is the dunnie. I need to take a dump.  :grin:

Captain's Log: many thanks for your comments... agree Australia not being a driver of Asian growth, just not enough people here, only around 20M but as you say we could benefit from it.

Probably the only point I would question is (d) as we have very little arable land and it's all around the fringes of the continent. This has been a good thing imo as it's kept the interior a wilderness area... the Great Victoria Desert is my spiritual home. Damn shame I can't live there but I don't have the survivalist skills AND there's definitely nowhere to plug in a pc. Even the aborigines just passed through in the appropriate seasons I believe. We have the full range of climates right through from tropics to Tasmania down near Antarctica (no one in their right mind lives in Tassie either).

It'll be interesting to see what unfolds in regard to the Aust/SE Asian connection...

#347 BigWave

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Posted 02 November 2003 - 11:48 PM

There is no way for the average bear to make more money than by following this site.

Word

#348 beardrech

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Posted 02 November 2003 - 11:53 PM


They are all white---35-----fit-----and driving leather upholstered military vehicles. lol

Those folks are the biggest bastards, i cant stand such people for a second. For them there is no left and right, there is only the straight way. They stand up at 6 and go jogging to be "fit", what idiots! :lol:

Those folks are the reason that socitely goes down, in my opinion they should all be imprisoned. :lol:

Foxie, my brother and I called these people "Aqua Velvas" many years ago, but for the past few years the word has become "Fokers", pronounced either with the hard "o" or the soft. It's become a socio-economic moniker for all that I have chosen to never become, and for the massive conservation of energy on which I have embarked. I have pledged never to become a Foker, even should I one day be able to afford it :lol:

We have a city filled with Fokers in Canuckistan- Toronto. All of my contemporaries in Toronto are now earning many times my Montreal pay, as well as jogging for no less than 1 hour per day, devoting no less than 2 hours per day to a charity or community organization (but the really compelling ones like Big Brothers, Greenpeace, United Physicists for International and Universal Peace, Love and Understanding, &c.), 15 hours per day to their jobs, and 2 hours per day to wine-tasting, opera-study, gourmet cooking, yoga, or the contemplative arts. They all look very healthy, well-groomed, relaxed, and generally impeccable. They are aggressively warm, friendly and affable. At their worst, when tired, they merely look intimidating. They are no doubt better squash players, rock-climbers, deal-closers, dinner-party-throwers, joggers, mall-shoppers, wine-tasters, and patrons of the arts than I'll ever be. They are better read, better informed, better appointed, and better regarded. They are all optimistic, happy and well-adjusted. They communicate well. They all have or intend to have, in the latter case upon completion of some major accomplishment, superior children. They are all bullish, although some express the belief, when drunk and after dark, that real estate may become or even be overvalued.

They are Fokers. There are some in Montreal but mostly all are in or aspire to be in Toronto, although I suspect that other major centers in the world are also well-inhabited by the forces of Fokerdom.

fokker; and fxfx i thought you'd like this quote--
"Evertime, I think of exercising I immediately retire to my couch and lie down until the feeling goes away-"

robert Maynard Hutchins

formewr Chancellor of the University of Chicago

I only partially agree with him and yourselves--because there are more convenient and less time consuming methods for keeping ones shape- for example i prefer the Russo--Hindoo-methodology --really quite simple--

I simply lie down underneath the breakfast table, make myself as rigid as possible, and then my wife gently rolls a 90 pound stone off the table onto my abdomen--
And please dont think that just because its less time consuming its easy---

athletically yours beardrech

#349 dozer

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Posted 02 November 2003 - 11:56 PM

"" You, not unexpectedly, went for the glatuitous
comment - hook, line, and sinker. ""


??? :huh:

even if it was said gratuitously, the comparative paucity of such instruction in USA high-schools relative to chinese was what stood out, to me anyway, in your post; and seemed worthy of note...and an accompanying sigh of sadness.


"" Are you able to discuss the real content of the post? ""

no arguments from me.

#350 Colonel Stool

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Posted 03 November 2003 - 12:07 AM

"" You, not unexpectedly, went for the glatuitous
comment - hook, line, and sinker.  ""


???   :huh:

even if it was said gratuitously, the comparative paucity of such instruction in USA high-schools relative to chinese was what stood out, to me anyway, in your post; and seemed worthy of note...and an accompanying sigh of sadness.

I misunderstood your comment.

I'm sorry.

#351 beardrech

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Posted 03 November 2003 - 12:08 AM

FWIW, regarding Putnam, I asked someone more knowledgeable than I tonight if this was going to a big deal due to low cash levels, etc.

The answer was proabably not if its just this fund. Thinks that pension funds will be paid in stock or given stock equal to the amount owed as restitution not in cash if there is a money crunch.

Never thought of that. Just assign marked to the market blocks of inventory.

Ag

This misses the point. Actually two or three points.

First Putnam has no assets and owns nothing. The MF holders own all assets except for the desks and computers. Therefore Putnam a division of Marsh & McLennan (MMC) cannot simply pay restitution in stock or cash for that matter without screwing the remaining holders. Any restitution must come from the parent company not from MF client accounts. MMC has a market cap of $23b which secures nearly $500b in insurance, leases and MF account liabilities. So at best Putnam can pay penalties equivalent to 8.75% of mf assets and thereby wipe out all of MMC leasing and insurance clients. Impossible.

Second, what relevance does J&J6P have to this equation by the time they figure things out putnnam will be paying pennies on the dollar. All of the moves todate have been professionally managed pension funds which amount to nearly $11b and counting. So far Massachusetts, Iowa, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island have fired putnam. Vermont, Florida, Connecticut and Washington are having emergency meetings over the weekend. MA has indicted, the US Attorney general has started an investigation and the NY Attorney General has subpoenaed trading documents to process another indictment. At some point the SEC will jump in to strip the bodies. This is not a potential problem it is a snowball rolling down hill. The consultants who pull the strings in pension fund land have issued the alert, "we recommend clients liquidate assets held in putnam accounts." Last one out is the bagholder.

Finally, while assets may be transferred here or there temporarily this scandal is already widespread and is growing by the day. Putnam is not the first in fact it was not even listed as a defendant in the original probe. The original probe targeted Janus, FBF, Alliance, BAC. Since then Strong has been indicted. C has fired 10+ brokers, Prudential 5 or 6, BSC, GS and MER have fired severalbrokers each. Prudential is being charged on Saturday. AIM has been targeted as has Fido. Spitzer and the SEC (despite doing nothing) have recently announced the scandal todate is only scratching the surface. So any assets transferred from putnam will eventually wind up in the same scandal at another fund.

p.s. If the major banks and brokers had no idea this fraud was taking place, how were they able to fire all these guilty brokers so quickly? Did they all confess because it is the right thing to do?

what music do you prefer when playing musical chairs--
my favorite is Wagner's Gotterdammerung
beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: :(

#352 Goldmember

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Posted 03 November 2003 - 12:10 AM

Stoolie Grot excercising his creative genius:

Posted Image
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#353 beardrech

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Posted 03 November 2003 - 12:19 AM

FWIW, regarding Putnam, I asked someone more knowledgeable than I tonight if this was going to a big deal due to low cash levels, etc.

The answer was proabably not if its just this fund. Thinks that pension funds will be paid in stock or given stock equal to the amount owed as restitution not in cash if there is a money crunch.

Never thought of that. Just assign marked to the market blocks of inventory.

Ag

This misses the point. Actually two or three points.

First Putnam has no assets and owns nothing. The MF holders own all assets except for the desks and computers. Therefore Putnam a division of Marsh & McLennan (MMC) cannot simply pay restitution in stock or cash for that matter without screwing the remaining holders. Any restitution must come from the parent company not from MF client accounts. MMC has a market cap of $23b which secures nearly $500b in insurance, leases and MF account liabilities. So at best Putnam can pay penalties equivalent to 8.75% of mf assets and thereby wipe out all of MMC leasing and insurance clients. Impossible.

Second, what relevance does J&J6P have to this equation by the time they figure things out putnnam will be paying pennies on the dollar. All of the moves todate have been professionally managed pension funds which amount to nearly $11b and counting. So far Massachusetts, Iowa, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island have fired putnam. Vermont, Florida, Connecticut and Washington are having emergency meetings over the weekend. MA has indicted, the US Attorney general has started an investigation and the NY Attorney General has subpoenaed trading documents to process another indictment. At some point the SEC will jump in to strip the bodies. This is not a potential problem it is a snowball rolling down hill. The consultants who pull the strings in pension fund land have issued the alert, "we recommend clients liquidate assets held in putnam accounts." Last one out is the bagholder.

Finally, while assets may be transferred here or there temporarily this scandal is already widespread and is growing by the day. Putnam is not the first in fact it was not even listed as a defendant in the original probe. The original probe targeted Janus, FBF, Alliance, BAC. Since then Strong has been indicted. C has fired 10+ brokers, Prudential 5 or 6, BSC, GS and MER have fired severalbrokers each. Prudential is being charged on Saturday. AIM has been targeted as has Fido. Spitzer and the SEC (despite doing nothing) have recently announced the scandal todate is only scratching the surface. So any assets transferred from putnam will eventually wind up in the same scandal at another fund.

p.s. If the major banks and brokers had no idea this fraud was taking place, how were they able to fire all these guilty brokers so quickly? Did they all confess because it is the right thing to do?

Precisely. Spitzer was on Tina Brown's new talk show the UDDER night and the fact that this was just the beginning in FUNdland was discussed. He concurred.

Where were these guys in the mid 1990's?

This stuff has been going on FUR simply AGES, in this observer's opinion. Everyone winked at it. Now they're being hoisted by their own peTURDS™.

It's all part of the vASS(ED?)t backlASSh HRFF has been predicting FUR ages (mostly on BORED's beFUR this one ever existed).

hrff
in the old Testament (i dont know where exactly and too lazy to look) there is a book of curses---I think it may become a runaway best seller shortly--dont you??
G****n yours bdrech

#354 Hiding Bear

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Posted 03 November 2003 - 12:35 AM

Great comments Doc & Mark. Doc is absolutely right.

It was recently revealed that most brokers do not have (actually can not get) additional insurance over the SIPIC amount of $500,000.  Therefore amounts over $500,000 in broker accounts - while technically segregated from other assets of brokers - could due to fraud be used by a broker and not returned in the event of a bankruptcy.  Just something to think about.

I think any MF that borrows more than a little money for more than a few days will suffer from bad public relations.  Even worse, any MF that issues scrip to stockholders would probably be soon finished.

Imagine if this Putnam thing speads to 2 or 3 major fund families at the same time.

AO, tanks for your charts.

from the essay on Gold Eagle:Something is missing--
it essentially states that everything is insured BY SOMETHING: social security,medicaid.medicare,the fdic,fema, agriculture, on and on one agency or class of investors after another but
SOMETHING IS MISSING--WHAT IS IT?

WHO AND WHAT IS INSURING THE DOLLAR?


BEARDRECH

Tanks for your comments, and humor.

Since the $ has no intrinsic, or benchmark, value like gold, who knows how low the $ could get in a crisis? It is agrued here that the US is in a better long term deficit spending position than European governments, but not if you add in potential GSE probalems - among others. Oyster says $1.80 for the Euro in the longer term, but why stop there? In a US$ type crisis, we could just wake up one morning and not be allowed to trade, let alone sell $ or anything else domestically.

Hope I'm ready when that happens, if there is a way to be ready for something like that.

#355 Auntie Septic

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Posted 03 November 2003 - 12:47 AM


Take a loan against your 401K and use that money to buy precious coins I did (~10% of my fund) where Interest rate on that was 5% which is pretty good IMO. 5% is what you'd pay on a overpriced front / back loaded fund. I bought my coins over ebay.

The 401k loan is structured so that I pay myself back direct out of you salary check plus I still make your original 401k contributions and receive your employer contribution. (If I wanted to I could lower 401k contributions to account for the loan payments).

Another option was putting that money into a IRA account that is self directed. (Allowed 3K PA I think).

Only drawback with 401k loans is that if you leave, you have to pay outstanding balance back otherwise it become classified as withdrawl with tax consequences.

The loan is tax free. Withdrawl is not and can be very unpleasant. You may not find out your total liability until you do your tax returns.

A few more comments on 401ks, etc..

If you have self-directed IRA, certain types of gold, silver, and platinum coins (ones that are usually acquired for their bullion value) are allowable IRA investments. Finding a broker that may handle such investments is another matter.

With all due respect, I think there are some other things
to consider before following this advice.

1. About that 401k loan. Yes, the loan proceeds are tax free
BUT you get to pay back the value in dollars (not
shares) with post tax dollars. Then, when you draw this
money out, you get taxed again.

2. Why not just take delivery of the physical metal? Why do
you feel compelled to let someone else watch it (for a fee)
and just give you a piece of paper? Platinum, in particular,
currently concentrates dollars well and there is no reason
to let anyone else watch it. If your metals babysitter goes
under, your paper will be worthless.
Removed.

#356 beardrech

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Posted 03 November 2003 - 01:05 AM

Hey Guys,

It's still not time yet....but I am inclined to agree with those of you who think next week will begin to tell the tale.
By the way, the Putnam story don't mean dick IMHO. It's not the silver bullet some of you have been looking for. Those of you who subscribe to the great power of the 'matrix' would, in the same vein, have to believe thay 'they' would manage the Putnam problem quite easily.
But what do I know. I'm just one of those FOKERS driving his new X5, paid in cash thank you, working out 3-4 times a week, and even trying to eat healthy. First time I ever thought it was a bad thing to enjoy the fruits of ones' labor, and look and feel good while doing it.

Be well

gtnworse
Please--dont be so sensitive-just because you have a few of the attributes of a class,e.g. have bilateral symettry and a prehensile thumb as do most of the schmuks in the world--it doen't necessarily make you a member of that class--sit back,laugh and enjoy the benefits of being a member of this amphitheatre--

And by so doing you automatically exclude yourself from the land of schmukdom--
Except for me--i'm trying to desparately get my visa enabling me to expatriate myself from the land of shlemazzels--

I respect your opinions very much--so please send me large amounts of money

Fiscally irresponsible yours bdrech

#357 BAREister

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Posted 03 November 2003 - 01:39 AM

Well, Drech, BARE isn't certain about The Book of Curses, butt: HRFF is HONKED at hisself cuz his puter crASShed early in the summer and he lost his link to the website FUR INSULTS IN YIDDISH!!! lolol

the Brooklyn boyz he went thru lawr skool w (Jewish - BARE never had a BAGEL until he washed up in Coral Gables lolol) called someone a schmenzvik or sumpthin' like dat der ass the lowest of the low: "That guy's a real schmenzvik"

lolol

They were almost ass funny as the Pakistani in HRFF's eating club who used to say obscene things in Paki on Harvard/Yale football weekends when gorgeous dates were sitting near him. :D
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#358 beardrech

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Posted 03 November 2003 - 01:42 AM

It is nothing new-i am always amazed-but jeepers Guyz- you talk about your choices in your 401K?? There are not any! None of you are going to collect squat! As Bears you have this futile hope that you will COLLECT! UH UH aint goin to happen! The system is in MELTDOWN and in your heart of hearts-YOU know it-donja ya??? Trade Safe!

b4
what do you do when you have a wife whose financial knowledge is less than that of the cook islanders--who refuses to even inqire about altering her 401k inssisitng that she wants to be with the suffering masses, if and when it comes---whose idea of a mediterranean cruise is romantically floating away on a disintegrating liferaft--
She reminds me of Simone weil who starved herself to death during wwii while bedridden in a Brtish hospital--in sympathy with the starving Europeans
Evertime i try to stash some canned goods she winds up giving it away to charitable collectors of foodstuffs at xmas thanksgicving chanukah,all saints day,succoth, world series week,during full moons,bankers holidays assorted cultistic runic celebrations:anyday and everyday is an excuse for emptying the larder--its getting so bad i even have supermercado managers lining up their openended vans for a quick profit

I told her that if she came crawling towards me during a period of famine asking for the benefits of food iwas eating that i would crown her with a can of Campbells tomato soup--

;) Just simply practicing my survival techniques :P
p.s. there are many people like her who feel its rather unattractive to seek finacial security and advantage while all those around them are falling--
beardrech

#359

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Posted 03 November 2003 - 01:56 AM

Spectral methods, in general, and FFT, in particular, assume stationarity.

What does this mean?

The most relaxed axiom, that of weak stationarity, requires that the mean and standard deviation of the time series being studied, be they cardiac ECGs, geophysical time series, or financial markets, be time-independent.
This is not generally true in the 3 examples quoted and thus any conclusions based on FFT are generally wrong and misleading. One first has to test that weak stationarity is satified over the time interval being studied before applying FFT and drawing any conclusions.

Using a mathematical transform such as FFT outside it's range of validity is best summed up by the scientific acronym GIGO = garbage in -> garbage out.

This fundamental limitation of FFT was the impetus behind the development of wavelet transform methods in geophysics which do not have to satisfy the weak stationarity constraint in order to be valid. Wavelet transform have been a revolution in the field of temporal and spatial spectral analysis.

In China, this is taught in high school.

As I posted just this afternoon, Hurst was well aware that using a Fourier Transform outside its range of validity would inevitably result in garbage in -> garbage out. Again, that is why a large portion of his first book, The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, covers his studies to verify that his Fourier Transform results are valid. He verified that his FT results are valid; he covers his procedure in quite some detail in his book, exact detail in the appendix. In fact, this is the very first thing Hurst did, for the obvious reason. I don't want to post about this anymore; please read the book before you criticize. I know you haven't.

You imply in your post that financial market time series' are not generally time-independant. While any series as a whole clearly is not, components of the price change, by necessity defined by the time series, are truly periodic, with time-independant mean and standard deviation. This is Hurst's conclusion, and for now at least, I continue to agree with Hurst.

Lacking the opportunity for a Chinese high school education, I have never studied the wavelet transform method, only heard of it. Yes, the American education system is a disgrace; I could go on and on about this topic. I don't know when the wavelet method was developed. Hurst did his work in 1971, using the computational tools available at that time.

You seem to suspect that Hurst was perhaps a charlatan. To my knowledge, Hurst never published a newsletter -- ever. His published book is, and was, very modestly priced. Rather than promoting himself as a guru, in sleazy fashion, he traded his own method. He claimed a 90% win percentage on trades. Of course, I cannot verify or be sure of this claim. I do know, rather than making an ass of himself in snake oil salesman style, he simply disappeared from public. While this leaves us guessing, it suggests he had become extremely wealthy, trading his own method, because he left a high paying job behind.

Please do read Hurst's work. If you find a flaw in his reasoning and/or technique, particularly regarding his FT validity check, please do come on this board and post about it. That would be a positive act, educating people and generally helpful. Simply assuming that Hurst, and others employing his approach, are either charlatans or ignorant (don't ever consider FT limitation) is offensive and, frankly, ignorant on your part. Please remember Aristotle's golden mean, in which virtue is the middle path between two vices. While blind faith is a vice, exposing one to being taken advantage of by charlatans, liars and conmen, the other extreme, closed-mindedness, is also a vice, and just as harmful and toxic to the practitioner. At least read Hurst before you judge.

#360 beardrech

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Posted 03 November 2003 - 02:07 AM

Well, Drech, BARE isn't certain about The Book of Curses, butt: HRFF is HONKED at hisself cuz his puter crASShed early in the summer and he lost his link to the website FUR INSULTS IN YIDDISH!!! lolol

the Brooklyn boyz he went thru lawr skool w (Jewish - BARE never had a BAGEL until he washed up in Coral Gables lolol) called someone a schmenzvik or sumpthin' like dat der ass the lowest of the low: "That guy's a real schmenzvik"

lolol

They were almost ass funny as the Pakistani in HRFF's eating club who used to say obscene things in Paki on Harvard/Yale football weekends when gorgeous dates were sitting near him. :D

bare
yiddish is a language of a people who never during the life it had as a viable language (ITS CURRENTLY EMBALMED IN A MULTI-VOLUMED DICTIONARY published by columbia u,i believe) never had any formal political power at all--and so its infinite variety of curse words and self mocking references--

I myself speak a potato yiddish usually in jest and will occassionaly, dressed in motley, perform at parties for drunken goyishe anthropologists--(kidding)

yIDDISH is entombed for another reason in that most jews see it as an emblem of enslaved passivity that led to their becoming the victims of middle classed malinvesting teutonic rage--

I respect it because my grandparents spoke it-my children dont
and never will;and only i will expire properly pronouncing the word YOU WERE ALMOST RIGHT IN ::::SHMENDRICK --

LINGUISTICALLY YOURS
BEARDRECH





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