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The HedgeFund Economy

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#331 DrStool


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Posted 02 November 2003 - 10:08 PM

i can tell you that i wish id paid more attention to Simple Guy; in hindsight he may have been in a class by himself. i dont remember exactly what happened, but i think he was criticized right off the Stool.

Now there's one I did kick off. After reversing field around 960 and declaring the top in, after quitting, coming back, and threatening to quit again, after repeatedly posting twisted, half-true and misleading posts, and repeatedly denigrating others, he declared that he was returning to posting as the "savior of Capitalstool. "

So I said, eh... I don't think so.

Let's keep the record straight as to the reasons for that.

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#332 BudFox


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Posted 02 November 2003 - 10:13 PM

I believe that Doc would agree that the "75% fundamentals" component could most accurately be associated with liquidity. The price of an asset, in general, will be predominantly determined by the amount of capital available. No matter what the hard numbers are surrounding the real value of an asset, market participants will always make an effort to either front run the value of an asset or end up in the herd as lagging buyers or sellers. I believe that this dynamic is what makes the cyclical component constant through time. It goes hand in hand with Elliott wave analysis, where the foundation for cyclic action is hard wired into the human brain. Elliott nailed the psychological concept, Hurst nailed the method for observational and predictive analysis.
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#333 beardrech


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Posted 02 November 2003 - 10:14 PM

Great comments Doc & Mark. Doc is absolutely right.

It was recently revealed that most brokers do not have (actually can not get) additional insurance over the SIPIC amount of $500,000. Therefore amounts over $500,000 in broker accounts - while technically segregated from other assets of brokers - could due to fraud be used by a broker and not returned in the event of a bankruptcy. Just something to think about.

I think any MF that borrows more than a little money for more than a few days will suffer from bad public relations. Even worse, any MF that issues scrip to stockholders would probably be soon finished.

Imagine if this Putnam thing speads to 2 or 3 major fund families at the same time.

AO, tanks for your charts.

from the essay on Gold Eagle:Something is missing--
it essentially states that everything is insured BY SOMETHING: social security,medicaid.medicare,the fdic,fema, agriculture, on and on one agency or class of investors after another but



#334 Colonel Stool

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Posted 02 November 2003 - 10:14 PM

""While Hurst's work convinced me, I have never done spectral analysis. I am just generally familiar with the concepts. You post you have performed them for the past 2 decades. I imagine if there is any flaw in Hurst's reasoning or work, you could spot it. ""

Spectral methods, in general, and FFT, in particular, assume stationarity.

What does this mean?

The most relaxed axiom, that of weak stationarity, requires that the mean and standard deviation of the time series being studied, be they cardiac ECGs, geophysical time series, or financial markets, be time-independent.
This is not generally true in the 3 examples quoted and thus any conclusions based on FFT are generally wrong and misleading. One first has to test that weak stationarity is satified over the time interval being studied before applying FFT and drawing any conclusions.

Using a mathematical transform such as FFT outside it's range of validity is best summed up by the scientific acronym GIGO = garbage in -> garbage out.

This fundamental limitation of FFT was the impetus behind the development of wavelet transform methods in geophysics which do not have to satisfy the weak stationarity constraint in order to be valid. Wavelet transform have been a revolution in the field of temporal and spatial spectral analysis.

In China, this is taught in high school.


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Posted 02 November 2003 - 10:41 PM

I could'nt disagree more. How is being discreet about being long helping a fellow stoolie? Don't markets go both directions and thus allow opportuniuties either way?

H2O, you misunderstand me... Let me give a couple of examples. Gruff, one of the regular posters, is almost always long but he states his reasons quietly and simply. Wndy also posts possible longs, usually in chart form but he is also a master of cynicism as we know. I don't have any problem at all with stoolies going long, hell I do it myself but I'm still a bear and of the opinion that this is just a bear market rally. Its the mo-mo stuff with no reasoning or backup that I find offensive.

#336 Jimi


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Posted 02 November 2003 - 10:51 PM

But here again is this idea that somehow other people are responsible for our actions. It's complete nonsense. I'm not going to accept responsibility for the actions of others, nor will I allow other stoolies to be blamed for decisions that other people make for themselves, without calling attention to the fact that placing such blame is illogical and false.

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Posted 02 November 2003 - 10:51 PM

was the clairvoyant named jimmy rogers?

No it wasn't, Pee Brain .... is that an innuendo of some kind that's gone straight over my head? :grin:

#338 doniam


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Posted 02 November 2003 - 10:54 PM

OK, forget about Templeton. I'll cash in the 401K and pay down the mortgage!

Eddie, I generally agree with Brian4's advice, but in this case get another before you kill the 401k.
The company match is free $$$.

#339 dozer


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Posted 02 November 2003 - 11:03 PM

quote: (in re wavelet math)

"In China, this is taught in high school."

...and that's the name o' -that- tune, eh?

sigh.... :o

#340 mjkst27


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Posted 02 November 2003 - 11:10 PM

Eddie, I generally agree with Brian4's advice, but in this case get another before you kill the 401k.
The company match is free $$$.

The company match is free money, but in order to get all of it you usually need to be contributing 8-10% of your salary per year. This money is then tied up until age 59.5 unless you feel like paying the 10% hit. Yeah, it's free money, but all things considered - the penalty, the hoops to jump through to get your money out, and most of all the shitty investment options that support the matrix' ends (see putnam), I'll take my money now thanks.

#341 Colonel Stool

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Posted 02 November 2003 - 11:28 PM

quote:   (in re wavelet math)

"In China, this is taught in high school."

...and that's the name o' -that- tune, eh?

sigh....  :o

Did this person Hurst and others who spent their time taking mathematical transforms of the markets retire wealthy men based on their work ( rather than on their newsretters ) or end up poor?

You, not unexpectedly, went for the glatuitous comment - hook, line, and sinker.
Are you able to discuss the real content of the post?

#342 dozer


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Posted 02 November 2003 - 11:33 PM

wow....fowl...i couldn't have drawn a more "classic" example of a modulated carrier wave. i.e. a perfect illustration of what i was trying to describe earlier today.

you can clearly see the amplitude of the higher-frequency (short-period) wave being modulated (changed in some way, in this case in amplitude) by the lower frequency (longer period) wave.

don't have the chart in front of me now, but that low-freq modulation is about a 10-20 year cycle isn't it? and quite large in amplitude!


nicely put together chart and post fowl...tanks! :)

#343 beardrech


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Posted 02 November 2003 - 11:37 PM


The Halloween economy spiked up off the charts here.

Our neighborhood was inundated with more little kids than I have ever seen.

It looked like the Halloween scene in E.T.


Last week at Little League sign up I was advised that the influx of 6 year olds was also off the charts.

Are my neighbors suddenly all taking the "blue" pill ?

No these are all new neighbors who have stealthilly moved in.No-one has ever met them before. Yet here they are happilly paying top dollar for housing and patriotically contributing to the Merican low mtg  rate economy. As a matter of fact around here they don't even bother with "for sale" signs when someone wants out. You gotta know someone I guess :unsure:

They are all white---35-----fit-----and driving leather upholstered military vehicles. lol

Their unstoppable  campaign to remodel the older houses they purchased will employ legions of carpenters and electricians, and will elevate the value of all the surrounding houses. And of course will raise our assesments and property/ school taxes.

Which is good because  higher tax revenues will help the town pay for the 2 new wings being added to the schools to accomodate these little rug rats.

Because 10 years ago our town sold off one of our schools to developers to build-------that's it ---------you guessed it--------houses :lol:

ned:it was great getting the news from a neighborhood with most of its male members not(thats what you get for not editing---edit) carrying appendeges with thai tied testicled vessicles-- in our neighborhood the population is graying very rapidly and the remaining population is so disenamoured with the future, that they choose to remain childless, and are contantly being fed intraveneous liqiuid birth control fluids--

Some distance away people are importing afflicted Romanian infants while choosing (I wonder ) not to have children of their own--
This year even Baby New Year is coming in with a Beard on him----

The only scource of children, iit seems, must come with the expansion of immigration--- there are so many languages spoken here that I'm thinking of opening a restaaurant called
The Tower of Babel Bar and Grill:(and on our menu)we speak everything and understand nothing--eat our cuisine at your own risk--not responsible for cases of ptomaine and every other food poisoning event-- our restaurant is so sophisticated,cosmopolitan and quaint that even our water is undrinkable--come in and make yourself at home--


#344 crooked_analyst


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Posted 02 November 2003 - 11:40 PM

Looks like they're gonna have another sale on the yellow metal tonite....I'm in again tomorrow...g'night.

#345 longOnUranus


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Posted 02 November 2003 - 11:42 PM

I'm here for a second - gone in another...we'll drop this week, and quitters will be back soon enough. Money talks, bullStool walks. There is no way for the average bear to make more money than by following this site.

see 'yall manana...

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