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#61 Hypertiger

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:09 AM

The threat is debt deflation...

This GDP number is wonderful the debt needed to sustain it is unbelieveable...

Rates rise and the hope dies plain and simple...

This is a happy day...

It is a debt backed by debt system and the only way in the known universe to support the previous debt inflation which is what we are seeing today is with greater amounts of debt inflation...

You would need "average" mortgage rates of around 3.5% to 4% to even have a hope of prolonging this...

After basically the greatest fiscal stimulus in the history of the US the result is a jobless, consumer debt at record levels unsustainable...

BLIP

Note crapvision has talked about a blip also so they can escape when the time comes...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#62 RockLedge

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:10 AM

Valero Energy just reported blowout earnings.

Note the huge increase in volume the last few days.

Might go long on this one if it takes off......

Earnings were better, I'll say that for DYN... over $4.00 and it could get exciting. Most likely will retest the 5.00.

As far as the refiners.... slam dunk this quarter. All of them.

#63 GregFokker

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:12 AM

needless to say who is lying? gdp @7 odd % ( yeah right) or short term int rates at 1%? THe 7% number tells me we are very near the end of the game. THis is outright fraud and panic on the part of the statists, they know the end is near. I

Soup? Soup?

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#64 wndysrf

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:13 AM

sold more e mini against 1055.79
stop a few pts above

p/c will be in the 30's this am at this rate

vix ? Oh that is an old thing of the past :lol:

Last time we had huge econ data to the upside was during March Madness 2002.

Market tanked 30% shortly thereafter.......
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#65 soup

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:14 AM

7% gdp and still no jobs? wtf is it going to take to get employment to grow? debasement and war are postitive over the very short term, they are fatal to the system over any other term.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#66 DrStool

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:14 AM

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#67 Sphinxter

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:15 AM

OK folks I'm seriously confused about the GDP here.

I took a bunch of math in school, so I should be able to get this but I can't seem to make it work.

In current dollars:

Q3 03 = 11,038

Q2 03 = 10,803

Q3 02 = 10,506

So the preceding Q comparison yields a percent increase of 2.1% (or 1.7% in chained dollars)

A year over year comparison yields 5.1% (or 3.3% in chained dollars)

Given that we just experienced the highest increase in the price index in recent years, which is subtracted from the current dollars to yield the real GDP, we should be looking at a number significantly lower than 5%.

I simply cannot make the posted numbers fit the percent increases posted in table 1.

Further, if you go to table 7 titled "Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago" it states that the percent change is 3.3% agreeing with my chained dollar calculation.

Where the hell is the 7.2% coming from?

:unsure:

#68 growler

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:16 AM

Amazing how that 7.2% GDP number didn't show up in the Q3 corporate revenue numbers. Got to love that magic wand of hedonic pricing.

#69 rog

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:17 AM

DJX stumbling in late, now potentially in the breakout zone in the cash index

#70 Tonto

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:19 AM

thanks for info machine....personally just daytrading now trying to follow the volume trails. Good luck!!


Wndy, NSCN looks like it is going to uncharted territory. 30 maybe? Im a novice of stocks that arent down 400% and have a hard time judging mania behavior here!!.......selling my miners was a horrible move (disclosure of bad trades) :P

#71 Hiding Bear

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:21 AM

The threat is debt deflation...

This GDP number is wonderful the debt needed to sustain it is unbelieveable...

Rates rise and the hope dies plain and simple...

This is a happy day...

It is a debt backed by debt system and the only way in the known universe to support the previous debt inflation which is what we are seeing today is with greater amounts of debt inflation...

You would need "average" mortgage rates of around 3.5% to 4% to even have a hope of prolonging this...

After basically the greatest fiscal stimulus in the history of the US the result is a jobless, consumer debt at record levels unsustainable...

BLIP

Note crapvision has talked about a blip also so they can escape when the time comes...

Interesting how money supply measures have started a steady downward trend that is not comparable to anything in the last 50 years or so. Declining supply of credit means that the Fed or whoever will have to work twice as hard to get interest rates low enough to stimulate even more borrowing (unless it is perceived that inflation is so strong that the price of credit - interest rates - no longer matters).

If those predictions of a rising GDP in the 4th quarter are true, then long term interest rates have a way to go higher.

#72

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:23 AM

Like I said yesterday,

FNM earnings oops we lied

FRE earnings oops we lied

US GDP

People are going to figure out real quick who's lying

#73 crooked_analyst

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:23 AM

Wow...glad I missed last nite.....

Good Morning to all....

I'm buying gold...it's on sale......

#74 Bearbones

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:24 AM

So far $9B in 14 day repos replacing $18B in expiring repo.

#75 DrStool

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Posted 30 October 2003 - 10:26 AM

The MoGauge peaked at the end of May. Typically, it takes 6-10 weeks to fund these mortgages. That means the bulk of the mortgage boom proceeds hit the economy in the middle of the third quarter. The effects of the mortgage collapse will be seen this quater, as it is already showing up in the money supply.

The market is reacting to ancient history here, as is its wont.

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