SP Gann Anal-ysis
317 replies to this topic
Posted 02 November 2003 - 09:04 PM
Don't want to step on toes but this is one of the most persistant and important cycles I track on SP. I have just begun subscribing to Doc's site and learning about Hurst methodology...one of the few areas I haven't researched...currently reading PRofit mAGIC! Doc's cycle work probably incorporates this 77 CD cycle already.
Posted 02 November 2003 - 09:41 PM
NH:NL whew, do you really think this will pop up into never-never land!
Pop(maybe) and BIG drop.
Posted 03 November 2003 - 10:38 AM
If this is a large degree A-B-C zig zag down, we are only in the B wave now.
I have seen some calling this a completed A-B-C already including an article
back in May 2003 TASC. B-waves are usually one of the easiest to identify
due to there choppiness and oscillator "footprint." No way was the post
9-11 rally a B wave as these people are claiming...that's one thing I am
sure of. Also, I am skeptical we are in a big B wave now due to its position
and sentiment character of this current rally but it can be viewed as such.
THIS STILL MEANS WE HAVE WAVE C DOWN AHEAD OF US and should
take us down minimally another .618 of w.A...and most probably 1 to 1.618 of w.A.
Here is chart reflecting that view...I have DT software.
There are two important price levels to be aware of in the weeks and months
ahead. The first is the Nov. W.A weekly closing high at 936.31. A weekly close
below 936.31 would void any potential that the rally off the Oct. low is impulsive
and long term bullish and would confirm it is corrective.
The second is a weekly close below the March W.B closing low at 828.89
and trade below the March low at 788.90. If the S&P is to continue in a complex
correction into the first quarter or so and eventually reach 1160 or higher, it
should not make a weekly close below 828.89 and trade below 788.90. If these
signals are made, the W.B corrective high is complete and the bear trend
should continue to well below the Oct. 2002 low.
The weekly DTosc made a bearish reversal last week on a major divergence
with the new price high. The bearish reversal suggests the S&P has made the
highest weekly close for the W.C. A new intraday high may be made, but more
than likely the S&P will not make a higher weekly close.
There have been three high-probability time targets for a W.C high so far this
year. The first was in early May, second in late June and the third in the first half
of Sept. In each case, the S&P had reached key price resistance zones and
potentially the completion of a wave structure at these time targets but only made
minor declines lasting a couple of weeks.
One of the most important time factors for a potential intermediate high
lasting several weeks is the 100% L-L-H Time Cycle Ratio the week ending Oct.
31, shown on the chart. A high lasting several weeks should be complete
within one week of the target week or by the end of next week.
Several short term time factors point to either Nov. 4 (Tue.) or 7-10 (Fri.-
Monday) to complete the diagonal W.5:5 diagonal.
My Gann anal-lysis shown previously (Sq144) point to next week,
Nov.4 specifically as a high probability turn date.
The 77 CD cycle also is in this week.
When methods converge you have something tradable.
I am short QQQ's, GE, WWCA
Long GOLDX, EWA
Posted 03 November 2003 - 12:48 PM
COMP ready to turn, could be fast and furious with what looks like a termination wedge forming...
Posted 03 November 2003 - 03:37 PM
SP latest...360 and 144 from March low have 1/3 time intervals coming up...
90 day from start of this rally due tomorrow.
If this cluster doesn't turn it around for some bigger decline...VIX=0 by New Years!
Posted 03 November 2003 - 10:01 PM
seconded, mr. hanky.....what exactly are we looking at?
if you could annotate, and add back the X/Y legends, to the last 2-3 charts, that'd be great!
Posted 03 November 2003 - 10:28 PM
Sorry...this was just a little funning around...but wouldn't it be cool if the current SP did follow the "pattern of the trend" of the 1987 crash...you must admit there are some similarities!
Posted 03 November 2003 - 10:50 PM
SP forming its own w.5 termination wedgy
Good article on liquidity drying up as Doc has already forewarned:
If this isn't the fat lady singing...
I wish we could just get one good sign the top was in...a big weekly piker of the DJI to over 10,000 and back down would do...
Posted 03 November 2003 - 11:04 PM
your comparison to 87 might just be funnin' around, and great fun it was, but this does seem like a verrrry interesting evening...lotsa diverging opinions, indicators, and TA, about what's gonna happen tomorrow and this week.
Posted 04 November 2003 - 06:46 AM
Stimulating stuff, Mr Hanky, thanks so much for sharing.
The problem with that count for bears is that a 5 wave A would indicate a zigzag for B which - if that is indeed the pattern - could easily take us to around 1200.
However, if the move down did terminate in October 2002 as seems highly likely then the 2003 retracement back towards the lows would appear to rule out a zigzag B and by default a 5 wave A.
There is also some overlap in the 3rd wave of that count that though potentially attributable to post 9-11 market anomalies should not really be there.
In my view the pattern counts much better as a series of zigzags down into the March 2001 lows at which point I have the B wave starting (of which b is IMO also a convincing zigzag).
However, the count starts from an orthodox top in early September 2000 rather than the March price highs, which I have as the top of the 3rd wave of an ending diagonal coming off the 1998 lows.
Furthermore, though I havenít had a chance to analyse this as comprehensively as Iíd like Iíll nevertheless mention that I believe it is quite possible that this move is itself the 5th wave of a cycle degree ending diagonal starting at the 1974 lows, with fairly frightening Hyperesque implications.
Any thoughts on this?
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