SP Gann Anal-ysis
317 replies to this topic
Posted 18 December 2003 - 06:46 PM
Yes, changes in risk tolerance Dow vs NAS have help point to the tops very reliably in the past. These types of divergences I have found are more reliable and subject to less variance than sentiment based indicators. That is why you see me spending more time tracking intermarket relative strengths comparisons. But as you can see here, we already had a period of non-confirmation in May-June with only a small decline/consolidation. I looked back and this is really an oddity but here we go again. This one I may short if my HankoMeter and other signals start turning down but so far they have NOT but many weekly momentum indicators are turning down and you can see the "rolling over" right on the charts of NAS ans NDX. It will be interesting to see if this solid Dow Theory non-confirmation fails to bring back the bear. Then I will have to throw another long time "tried and true" indicator to the TA junk heap.
Posted 18 December 2003 - 07:04 PM
The price divergence here is also continuing to intensify, may be hard NOT to short this one. Keeping close eye on DOW and other indicators. I am certain the 10,350 will be hit in this holiday rally. Dec 21-Jan 6 important Gann seasonal period for CIT.
Posted 20 December 2003 - 07:06 PM
SP topping ....could be.... another CV and high probability reversal point is upon us. But we have blown past two other such levels! And now the Gann 1987 1 X 1 has been decisively trampled...oh my! Looking forward to another year of unbelievable events! GOLD $800 maybe?
One thing is the length of this larger degree bear rally has really not been "that" long...see notes on the chart.
Posted 20 December 2003 - 11:36 PM
The way a European might see it.......
"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000
Posted 21 December 2003 - 11:07 AM
Seems as though everything is coming together for a eurphoric climax to this bear market rally. Interest rates declining, RE booming, Stocks rallying, foreign markets cheering, the Chinese miracle is in its full glory, Saddam in shackles, St. Al looks to still have not reached the bottom of his monetary sack, Internets and telco's resurrected and giving those astronomic 1000% returns, Gucci having a record year, JCramer spit volume excalating with more blowout economic numbers.
All the bulls need is gold and commods to finally hit their followers with some real doubt and the dollar bounce. It's all they need for virtual nirvana.
WHAT MORE GOOD NEWS AND POSITIVE MARKET ACTION COULD THERE BE?
Posted 21 December 2003 - 06:00 PM
So itís like the seventies. Then it was the Japanese just getting the export bugs, itís the Chinese now. Donít forget the commodity boom.
Posted 22 December 2003 - 04:34 AM
Posted 22 December 2003 - 04:36 AM
Posted 22 December 2003 - 04:42 AM
Posted 24 December 2003 - 05:28 PM
Are they casting an ingot in that manger?
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
Posted 24 December 2003 - 06:17 PM
Don't know for sure, but I do know the wise men did not bring fiat currency for a gift!
Posted 25 December 2003 - 11:29 AM
Well, shorting is never easy in an up market...but I try!
We have been stopped out of our GE, EK, and BBH short trades.
Still have WWCA and AMZN open.
I don't see many short set-ups anymore with the markets latest surge.
Retail and homebuilders may be topping out...but still too early to tell.
Still have to favor the long side and we are now long QQQ per Cubetrader signal but these signals during Christmas and New Years usually are faulty and don't lead to good trades due to the the low volume and volatility.
We currently have no open gold positions. But the gold indices are sitting on strong support and could try some buying with tight stops in case we fall to the next lower level of support which I feel is a strong possibility.
I should try some long positions in energy related stocks. I am going to focus on this as we start the new year. Keep you posted.
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