266 replies to this topic
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:15 PM
Unintended consequences? or the "butterfly flaps its wings in Bombay and causes a hurricane in Florida" effect?
Germans jealous of Californicate
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:17 PM
'Dow 10,000 or Bust'
by Rick Ackerman
I've been a reluctant bull for months,
persuaded by the strength of IBM's chart, of Citi's, and a few
others, to temporarily set aside my very strong doubts that the
economy is in a sustainable recovery. Some would assert that the
stock market's steady rise since March presciently foretold the
statistical recovery that seems now to be under way. But I've never
believed for one moment that a crazed creature of the id such as the
stock market could be prescient - nor, even, that it could act in a
rational way to discount known facts. What it does do, with
graphical precision, is provide us with a perfect visual analog for
the extreme mood swings, some short-term, some occurring over years
or even decades, that mark the ebb and flow of civilizational tides.
Meanwhile, we pore over the charts
attempting to make sense of it all, trying in vain to match up zigs
and zags with the news of the day. My own tea leaves have brought me
to the conclusion that stocks will continue higher at least into
early 2004, but I've made no attempt herein to square that forecast
with what I see happening in the real world. In fact, I hadn't much
considered the reasons, other than that the economy would continue
to respond reflexively to the largest dose of fiscal and credit
stimulus ever applied to it. Then I received from a subscriber the
following, attributed to a Capitalistool contributor who signed
himself "buddha." It sums up the rationale for higher stocks
perfectly, I think:
Without 'Sigma 10'
"It matters not where the Market is now.
That is not necessarily going to help one gauge the Madness of
Crowds. A better gauge is to regard the insanity of the California
recall or the day by day image management going on in Iraq. The
Matrix is in charge and it will muscle the masses very effectively
in whichever direction it chooses for the intermediate term. I
standby my 10,000 or bust scenario for this year. This target is far
too important to the fund industry and to those who manage blind
financial optimism in the media. I would never underestimate them.
"They can string this along for much longer
than a rational man could ever imagine. Without Sigma 10, it will
simply continue. The printing press will provide and the falling
dollar will be spun as bullish for stocks and for
domestic 'manufacturing'. Bush is closing in on 2004 reselection
with the same gusto Nixon displayed in 72'. He will stop at nothing
and he has the momentum regardless of what meaningless polls say at
this juncture. Does anyone really believe that he will suffer the
vulnerability of a falling Market during his upcoming campaign year?
Please. best, buddha."
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:34 PM
is it really true that private sector savings must equal investment under the funny-money system? Under a true gold standard, I agree that this true. But if I want to start a business today, I go to a bank and wow them with my business plan and they print me stack of 50's and say go for it. No one had to save shit. Someone reorient me. Please. Thanks. Best. 27.
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:35 PM
Fleck seems to think we are near exhaustion.
Bears seem to believe that bad news is necessary to send the market down.
Fleck says market will collapse from sheer exhaustion, no excuse needed.
He's now monitoring the YHOO boards to measure the levels of bullish hysteria.
Here is the PreMarket commentary on JNPR:
Yesterday's PreMarket commentary on YHOO:
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk
The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:36 PM
.....when the black holes, black box trading robot inside the 700-story JPMoron derivatives tower...fails
Wndysrf plans his next trip to .....the Massage Parlor
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:38 PM
Make sure it has an enema bag built into the console...
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:42 PM
your alter-ego is quite hilarious; however, your attempt at reverse psychology is futile. the matrix has won.
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:44 PM
buying the dip monday morning
very bullish and probably goes Dover Sole quickly. People dont have the time now to wait day to day for there stocks to go up 100% It needs to be intraday...biggest gains are made at the end and that could be months with nice pullbacks..docs target day makes since for sure...I think next week will be the biggest week in a few years.....87 crash scenario where everyone throws downs huge put gambles will probably be the catalyst. That will probably get blasted over Crapvision and reasons will come on why that wont happen etc....we shall see.....strong uptrend that many will hate having missed.....All the HUGE amounts of 55 year olds who CANT retire will only be able to to open up the new jobs that are left is whenever round 2 starts...imo..If not just pure hysteria....I just dont see the its over idea at all yet....I am now checking "all data" when viewing charts to get gauges etc........maybe a nice retrace in 2 weeks. When many cant help but take first round of profits....thats when Ill be scoping out basing, building, set ups etc...good luck all regardless....
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:45 PM
Another fine post, Ags.
Susie Orman was on Hollywood Squares recently, a real Joe 6 pack show if there is one. If we see Peter Lynch on Wheel of Fortune, I'm calling a top!
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:46 PM
thats not mark, its someone from the clearstation boards named joeyd...he is hilarious though and a great trader.....
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:50 PM
Like this "crack anal cyst" found on the PMCS board?
(it's a $17 stock now- new 52-week highs almost daily, expected to lose a penny this quarter. DON'T SHORT IT- it's probably gonna print 20 soon!)
Look out shorts.
If the economy really kicks in this will fly.
.20 p/share in '04 + 214% Growth Rate (From Yahoo)with..
A peg ratio of 1 = stock price $42.80
Industry current PEG Ratio =4.18
Even at a Peg Ratio of 1/2 industry avg (also from Yahoo, =2.09)
That would yield a stock price of $93.30
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:56 PM
Someone put up a link to Richard Russell's latest SNOT 'long' ago. Would you mind posting it again, please?
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war
"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos
"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005
"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!
"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw
"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)
"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04
"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"
Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996
"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc
"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04
"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04
"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04
"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger
Posted 10 October 2003 - 06:59 PM
Margined at 1800! I had assumed a fart smeller like you would have stepped up at 1100!
Posted 10 October 2003 - 07:00 PM
does anyone have a top ten list of GAS Co's that I cold research this weekend
tanks in advance - NE
"In order to form an immaculate member of a flock of sheep one must, above all, be a sheep."
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
Posted 10 October 2003 - 07:20 PM
Yep, all three Asian Exoticas are up after hours.
SOHU up the most, about $1.13.
Short interest is still too high on these beauties.
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk
The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!
The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board